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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #41
  • Jan 30, 2013 9:26am Jan 30, 2013 9:26am
Quoting GDR3k
Pending sell order @ 144.54, I missed a long move before from the demand candle highlighted red on the bottom chart, I didn't expect a move down that fast but its where I would of put an order in, but then who can predict a spike like that? Those pesky algos. Everytime I'm away from the screen something like this happens.
Good stuff, GDR. I hope you get your short filled

I'd be adding some more longs if we see this form another short-term base here soon, but I'm going to let my positions get a little more padding before I think about adding more to them.

Cheers.
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  • #42
  • Jan 30, 2013 9:32am Jan 30, 2013 9:32am
In defense of the 'algos' they are simply operant on 'rational' if-then statements based on historical behavior. On January 25th 2013, we saw the GBP/JPY peak at 144.034 - it fell to 141.912 which is 50% fibo retracement level [jan 23-25]. It was expelled precipitately onto 144.120 (today's approx peak). I'm expecting a larger retracement to perhaps 142.952 and then upwards to retest today's highs.
  • #43
  • Jan 30, 2013 9:33am Jan 30, 2013 9:33am
Quoting Geppy
Good stuff, GDR. I hope you get your short filled

I'd be adding some more longs if we see this form another short-term base here soon, but I'm going to let my positions get a little more padding before I think about adding more to them.

Cheers.
Aye, looking at the weekly charts most jpy pairs are in a previous sell off area going back to 2010. I'll look to long if it gets down to the 143-143.30 area again, if not, I ain't chasing her.
  • #44
  • Jan 30, 2013 9:36am Jan 30, 2013 9:36am
Quoting Geppy
I'll tell you why people tend to hold trades longer than a few hours: I enjoy having a life. I ride trends and move my SLs up to lock in profits and spend little time in front of the screen to do so. I make money, it's relatively easy, and I'm not chained to a desk. Some people are successful trading smaller time frames and jiving in and out of multiple trades per day. But I don't have the time or desire to be on-call like that.
The markets don't care if you have a life or not, the algorithms are programmed to act at inflection points throughout the day.
  • #45
  • Jan 30, 2013 10:15am Jan 30, 2013 10:15am
It's starting to look like we've managed to put another short-term support zone in place as price on a 15 minute chart found support on the 50 ema once again.

Overall, my positions average in at an entry price of 142.87 and I'm moving the SLs up to 143.50 now to lock in 63 pips of profit.

I see the potential for this baby to run to 146 but we definitely need to chop some wood first. In the meantime, I'll keep tightening the SLs until the market won't allow me to anymore
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  • #46
  • Jan 30, 2013 12:23pm Jan 30, 2013 12:23pm
I've been building longs since 143 with this pair... I am a position type trader and I do dabble in day trading if I see opportunities... To be honest I am willing to hold this for 162... monthly looks beautiful
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  • #47
  • Jan 30, 2013 12:32pm Jan 30, 2013 12:32pm
Quoting BobGnarly
I've been building longs since 143 with this pair... I am a position type trader and I do dabble in day trading if I see opportunities... To be honest I am willing to hold this for 162... monthly looks beautiful
Wow, I like your style sir ;-)

I'm a position type trader too, but not as loyal as you sound. 162 would be nice, I'd probably trade in and out a few times along the way though.

Good to have ya here!
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  • #48
  • Jan 30, 2013 12:37pm Jan 30, 2013 12:37pm
Yes, different strokes for different folks ... Glad to join the thread bro! Keep up the good work
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  • #49
  • Jan 30, 2013 1:48pm Jan 30, 2013 1:48pm
Geppy, Thanks for the thread. I traded this beast for a few years back in the golden age (07-09) and it was a wild ride at times. I appreciate you bringing some conversation back and wish you luck. I have a little time again and am trying to re-educate myself on this pair, new strategies and it's personality. I am long at 143.40 based on an old strategy I used to use based on the London close. Moved SL to BE and just missed an opportunity to add a position when it made a nice bounce off the 50EMA on the 15min chart a few minutes ago. I am liking a break to the upside here. Need a clean break of 145 (ish) and I'll hold till 149...maybe 153? Could be fun?
Illegitimi Non Carborundum
  • #50
  • Jan 30, 2013 1:49pm Jan 30, 2013 1:49pm
Price action is definitely maintaining pressure on the highs. I'll be surprised if they hold through the NY close.
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  • #51
  • Jan 30, 2013 1:51pm Jan 30, 2013 1:51pm
Quoting Choopyaz
Geppy, Thanks for the thread. I traded this beast for a few years back in the golden age (07-09) and it was a wild ride at times. I appreciate you bringing some conversation back and wish you luck. I have a little time again and am trying to re-educate myself on this pair, new strategies and it's personality. I am long at 143.40 based on an old strategy I used to use based on the London close. Moved SL to BE and just missed an opportunity to add a position when it made a nice bounce off the 50EMA on the 15min chart a few minutes ago. I am...
Glad to have another vet in here :-) welcome!

Yep, I love myself a good trend too. 149 would be swell.

Looking forward to your analysis and discussion
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  • #52
  • Jan 30, 2013 4:43pm Jan 30, 2013 4:43pm
Well, NY couldn't get us over the 144.20 zone, but things are setting up nicely. The last 36 hours have been great, predictable trading and if we can break upward, I think it should continue that way for the rest of the week at a minimum.

See you all later on during the Asian session.
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  • #53
  • Jan 30, 2013 6:19pm Jan 30, 2013 6:19pm
I should start checking this more than once or twice a day, missing some good pull back opportunities... nothing better than healthy retrace/consolidations, only indicates a very strong uptrend still intact .. If we close the month tomorrow with no upper wick, watch out next month....
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  • #54
  • Jan 30, 2013 7:17pm Jan 30, 2013 7:17pm
Quoting BobGnarly
I should start checking this more than once or twice a day, missing some good pull back opportunities... nothing better than healthy retrace/consolidations, only indicates a very strong uptrend still intact .. If we close the month tomorrow with no upper wick, watch out next month....
Agreed, BGN... trading this pair this week has been quite phenomenal. It's stuck in some consolidation now, but it's to be expected if it's going to burst through that strong resistance just above. Hopefully our patience is rewarded
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  • #55
  • Jan 30, 2013 7:45pm Jan 30, 2013 7:45pm
geppy do you mind telling me if this chart is more probable this week or not

a drop below 143.59 i'm going for this hs formation to 1.398
a push above 1.4420 then its heading higher to 1.49 and maybe higher tp complete bigger inverse hs...which has also been the range for a while 1.39-1.442
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  • #56
  • Jan 30, 2013 8:21pm Jan 30, 2013 8:21pm
Quoting gnomoneey
geppy do you mind telling me if this chart is more probable this week or not

a drop below 143.59 i'm going for this hs formation to 1.398
a push above 1.4420 then its heading higher to 1.49 and maybe higher tp complete bigger inverse hs...which has also been the range for a while 1.39-1.442
Your altering digits before and after your decimal in your prices confuse the hell out of me lol.

However, that is not a valid H&S pattern. Google the definition and you'll find some examples.

The best argument for short in my opinion is that today put in a triple top. However, we've also been seeing higher highs. You could argue that it's simply an ascending triangle that's getting ready to burst to the upside.

If we can break 144.25, 145.00 won't take long to crack either. If/once that happens, this baby could really run.
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  • #57
  • Jan 30, 2013 8:36pm Jan 30, 2013 8:36pm
Blah... just got stopped out of all my positions at 143.50

short-term direction is now a bit unclear, let's see what happens next.
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  • #58
  • Jan 30, 2013 8:47pm Jan 30, 2013 8:47pm
Only reason I see to support this Yen strength is closing of positions at the end of the month.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #59
  • Jan 30, 2013 8:53pm Jan 30, 2013 8:53pm
Quoting zusch
Only reason I see to support this Yen strength is closing of positions at the end of the month.
Could be, but I may dabble in some shorts at 143.70 and see if I can't ride it a bit
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  • #60
  • Jan 30, 2013 9:21pm Jan 30, 2013 9:21pm
Quoting Geppy
"Back in the day", I cut my teeth trading currencies via GBP/JPY.

I love the violent, sporadic moves and the ability to make money quickly on this pair.

In 2007 we had an awesome group dedicated to trading "the beast" and the conditions were marvelous for spectacular moves. However, things died down after the mortgage crisis meltdown and Geppy hasn't been the same ever since (neither of us).

Now, with the craziness out of Japan and the Yen, I've been seeing new life breathing into the ol' beast.

I'm ready to start dedicating a lot more time...

Geppy would you post your trading rules and how you use the ma's with the indicators? I would like to know about how you trade the GBPJPY
The best indicator is price.
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