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Still Basketting

  • #3,221
  • Jan 30, 2013 3:14am Jan 30, 2013 3:14am
Quoting r2997790
HI Basketeers...

One question and one observation from a new KOS basketeer (I've done a bit of basket dabbling in the past).

Observation
My 14 pairs (12-2) LONG basket is net swop positive 16 pips (+31 -15) rather than close long baskets when HAS changes could / should we leave it open and hedge instead? Obviously we'd need to keep an eye on the swop rates but an extra 112 pips a week isn't bad.

Question
I'm LONG on my first demo basket and see H1 and H4 resistance coming up. I know the prevailing view is...
Your observation is very interesting. Would be willing to see how this works compared to JS, Trailing or just hutting up shop and not being a PIG.

On exiting "Ignore H4 at your peril".
H4 is forming a big part of the way trade the kos system now.
Psalms 82:6: Forex Must Bow!
  • #3,222
  • Jan 30, 2013 3:25am Jan 30, 2013 3:25am
Quoting stephenoye
Your observation is very interesting. Would be willing to see how this works compared to JS, Trailing or just hutting up shop and not being a PIG
If you're in decent profit and get a reversal signal on your long basket then I think a hedge might be good. I don't propose letting your profit ebb away entirely, it's more a case of what the state of the market and profit/loss level of your basket is.

If you don't hit your first profit target on a long basket (or it is in loss) and get an early reversal signal then I definitely think a hedge might be better than closing the basket if it is swop positive.
  • #3,223
  • Jan 30, 2013 3:28am Jan 30, 2013 3:28am
Quoting stephenoye
Good ost and observations.

I agree that the long trades seem to run much smoother. I think this is down to the overall trend at the moment.
Pop up the H4 and it shouts long at you and the shorts we see on the H1 are generally retracements at the minute.
It'll be nice to see what happens when the long awaited downtrend resumes.

On Jumping Stops, I love them. I think they agree with my trading personality.
I'm going to have a go at incorporating it into GVCs EA as running BTS and MPBM together don't seem to always agree.
An alternative...
Care to share the resulting EA when you get around to altering the code? And can you add Long only and Short only options? i am trying a method now by using one setting for longs and one for shorts. I trade longs from the H1 timeframe, and taking shorts on the M15 timeframe.

The GVC EA, the v2.2, is brilliant. It just needs JumpingStop and we are golden.

Thomas
  • #3,224
  • Jan 30, 2013 4:08am Jan 30, 2013 4:08am
Quoting Dkny
Some are stronger than the rest in production and there is always one that leads the pack. The yen pairs are the most prolific leader of the pack esp the GJ and the EJ, that was the reason i was a bit interested in the last guy manner of trading just the yen pairs.

Now we should realize that ideas however insignificant at the onset maybe big later. The spread of trading 14 lots of GJ pose a greater risk than just trading 14 pairs basket. Of course not all 14 pairs will generate as signifcant pips as the GJ. Also you must consider that there are...
you are very correct sir, on the low risk and safety of basket trading especially the 14.

If you want to trade the USD or JPY basket, it is simple if you are on the mailing list of Don Isbell, he made a very good indicator that creates the offline charts for individual currency like JPY, USD, CHF, AUD it helps you see clearly which currency is buying or selling and you just do the basket for that pair.

its not that we chase the guy away, if he had opened a currency basket thread I would have gone there and drop him this indicator and how to use it, but doing that here would clutter this place more, there is no need to teach all the ways to trade basket in just one thread.


kos
John 3:16 - From THIS love no power on earth can me sever.
  • #3,225
  • Jan 30, 2013 4:13am Jan 30, 2013 4:13am
Quoting Kosomolate
you are very correct sir, on the low risk and safety of basket trading especially the 14.

If you want to trade the USD or JPY basket, it is simple if you are on the mailing list of Don Isbell, he made a very good indicator that creates the offline charts for individual currency like JPY, USD, CHF, AUD it helps you see clearly which currency is buying or selling and you just do the basket for that pair.

its not that we chase the guy away, if he had opened a currency basket thread I would have gone there and drop him this indicator and how to...
Welcome back kos.
We missed you.

Please check your mail.
Psalms 82:6: Forex Must Bow!
  • #3,226
  • Jan 30, 2013 4:13am Jan 30, 2013 4:13am
any one in the small up ride? I would watch price closely at 15min, I dont want to loose the profit
my yesterday short ended in loss of -350 pips, want to offset it with today's gains

dont think its going more than the recent high

see you on Friday, we review the week

kos
John 3:16 - From THIS love no power on earth can me sever.
  • #3,227
  • Jan 30, 2013 4:15am Jan 30, 2013 4:15am
Closed basket as PA bounced off H4.
+900 pips.

Entry a tad early as I'm testing an entry optimisation technique.
Will share if positive results are sustained.
Psalms 82:6: Forex Must Bow!
  • #3,228
  • Jan 30, 2013 4:20am Jan 30, 2013 4:20am
Quoting Kosomolate
any one in the small up ride? I would watch price closely at 15min, I dont want to loose the profit
my yesterday short ended in loss of -350 pips, want to offset it with today's gains

dont think its going more than the recent high

see you on Friday, we review the week

kos
I also got caned for about -300pips so I am currnetly +$617 for the week.
I'm happy with that.
Psalms 82:6: Forex Must Bow!
  • #3,229
  • Jan 30, 2013 4:22am Jan 30, 2013 4:22am
this is what the experience is like when trend is trying to flip around, BEs, small losses etc, don't start looking for other filters
hang in there trend would soon flip and the jolly ride south would start big time. those who endure till the end shall be saved.

we normally dont expect after some months of 4HR TF going one direction then it should just flip and head south, it happens in 1min TF but not
where we are trading from. Now is when you know who the patient traders are. If you are not that patient and you know he right seting for HAS in the LTF (5min TF) then switch there and fire on, till when things settle in HTF


kos
John 3:16 - From THIS love no power on earth can me sever.
  • #3,230
  • Jan 30, 2013 4:24am Jan 30, 2013 4:24am
Quoting stephenoye
I also got caned for about -300pips so I am currnetly +$617 for the week.
I'm happy with that.
good to know I was not the only one bro

I think you are very wise to have closed it sharperly, my MTFstoch has hit the extreme too
am up for the week too


kos
John 3:16 - From THIS love no power on earth can me sever.
  • #3,231
  • Edited 7:17am Jan 30, 2013 4:34am | Edited 7:17am
Quoting Dkny
The spread of trading 14 lots of GJ pose a greater risk than just trading 14 pairs basket.
Where two trades - or one trade and a basket of trades - run with a 100% correlation (+1.0), the risks are exactly the same. The greater the degree of correlation, the closer the risk profiles between the two.

From a visual of the Kos chart going back as far as I can it seems to me that most of the major pip gains and all the extended Long runs were as a result of unusually steep rises in Yen pairs in recent history. This method certainly suits the current market conditions for the Yen (and to some extent the Euro). You would have made even more profit - substantially more profit - if you had only Yen pairs in your basket over that period (or used the current chart setup and taken HAS signals to trade just EJ rather than the basket i.e. 1.4 x EJ rather than 0.1 each of 14 pairs), in my estimate. All with the same or very nearly the same risk given the correlation.

Disclaimer: I'm a raw newbie and I could be talking complete nonsense.
  • #3,232
  • Jan 30, 2013 7:17am Jan 30, 2013 7:17am
Anyone thought about setting fully hedged position for the weekend if trades are left open?
Anything can happen over weekend and I think this produces the highest risk with this system.
If we have buy basket and price gaps down, we do not lose anything from friday.
Spread is usually around 35-45 pips so it is relatively small percentage of pips in basket trading.
  • #3,233
  • Jan 30, 2013 7:43am Jan 30, 2013 7:43am
Price pushed above previous H, but retraced before closing above that level... Still waiting, though my model's signal remains Long(H4)...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Vincit qui se vincit.
  • #3,234
  • Jan 30, 2013 9:46am Jan 30, 2013 9:46am
Hello, everyone, I am Chinese, I have read the line's distance for more than 3 months and read 5 times, because my English is very what a mess, use Google's on-line translation reading, translate into Chinese language much meaning to all change, off-line data and script places an order these I will, I also imitate for quickly 2 months, this is a line distance of greatness, I meet a hard nut to crack to hope to get everyone's help now, T101 Basket Trader the v 2.2 EAs I don't know how establish, all is to don't circulate as usual, the reason is to translate for the Chinese language of time, the meaning didn't express, so I have never read to understand, I need everyone's help!Thank everyone
  • #3,235
  • Jan 30, 2013 3:55pm Jan 30, 2013 3:55pm
hey can anyone help me. i am using the H1 HAS colour change to trade. i have chosen not to use take profit, which i understand means the basket should only close upon the change of HAS colour. the buy basket closed, albeit for profit, but i didn't want it to

what am i missing?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: why take profit.png Size: 44 KB
  • #3,236
  • Jan 30, 2013 4:00pm Jan 30, 2013 4:00pm
Quoting blamshakk
hey can anyone help me. i am using the H1 HAS colour change to trade. i have chosen not to use take profit, which i understand means the basket should only close upon the change of HAS colour. the buy basket closed, albeit for profit, but i didn't want it to

what am i missing?
But you have "Basket Closing:" set to Yes.

See on the LH side about 3 / 4 lines down.

cheers scalpz

Oops, make that 8 lines down, the 1st of the ......... lines displayed.
Target 2 : Stoploss in the green
  • #3,237
  • Jan 30, 2013 4:25pm Jan 30, 2013 4:25pm
Quoting blamshakk
hey can anyone help me. i am using the H1 HAS colour change to trade. i have chosen not to use take profit, which i understand means the basket should only close upon the change of HAS colour. the buy basket closed, albeit for profit, but i didn't want it to

what am i missing?
Looks like it was closed by you trailing stop.
You have it set trail @ 75% when you hit $150.

Your EA shows that the last basket closed @ $122.90 which says to me that your basket got to at least $163 then retreated a bit at which point the EA closed the basket.

You need to either disable trailing or move the trail further back to give the basket room to breathe.

Hope this helps.
Psalms 82:6: Forex Must Bow!
  • #3,238
  • Jan 30, 2013 4:55pm Jan 30, 2013 4:55pm
many thanks, that makes it clear

i think i shall use 25% settings. can you tell me what TS options have been successful for you, if at all?




Quoting stephenoye
Looks like it was closed by you trailing stop.
You have it set trail @ 75% when you hit $150.

Your EA shows that the last basket closed @ $122.90 which says to me that your basket got to at least $163 then retreated a bit at which point the EA closed the basket.

You need to either disable trailing or move the trail further back to give the basket room to breathe.

Hope this helps.
  • #3,239
  • Jan 30, 2013 5:01pm Jan 30, 2013 5:01pm
Quoting blamshakk
many thanks, that makes it clear

i think i shall use 25% settings. can you tell me what TS options have been successful for you, if at all?
I usually start with 25% and if the basket moves considerably I increase this along the way 30%, 40% then maybe close.
I've edited the EA and coded JS into it today which I'll be testing on the next trade I take as JS seems to agree with my trading personality more.
Psalms 82:6: Forex Must Bow!
  • #3,240
  • Jan 30, 2013 5:15pm Jan 30, 2013 5:15pm
that's great info, please keep us posted

Quoting stephenoye
I usually start with 25% and if the basket moves considerably I increase this along the way 30%, 40% then maybe close.
I've edited the EA and coded JS into it today which I'll be testing on the next trade I take as JS seems to agree with my trading personality more.
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