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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #5,741
  • Dec 18, 2012 4:37pm Dec 18, 2012 4:37pm
Quoting Forexgogo
Update
It rejected at monthly R1, but still watching for short BTW, I see a divergence on a daily.
Hi
I have had the same chart that I have been watching on daily. Went short at 1.055 and its been painstakingly slow. Been busy with my business anyway with no time to update charts. But the break below UTL is good news for bears, and I have been expecting .97XX for a while, but I think it will finally happen in Feb according to my timing charts. I closed my longs on EJ, but I think 113 is within reach, thereafter a good opportunity for shorts ( mid-late jan).
Good luck and Merry Christmas to all and Happy new year..
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Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #5,742
  • Dec 18, 2012 4:48pm Dec 18, 2012 4:48pm
Quoting tradoholic
Hi
I have had the same chart that I have been watching on daily. Went short at 1.055 and its been painstakingly slow. Been busy with my business anyway with no time to update charts. But the break below UTL is good news for bears, and I have been expecting .97XX for a while, but I think it will finally happen in Feb according to my timing charts. I closed my longs on EJ, but I think 113 is within reach, thereafter a good opportunity for shorts ( mid-late jan).
Good luck and Merry Christmas to all and Happy new year..
Ditto
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  • #5,743
  • Dec 18, 2012 5:04pm Dec 18, 2012 5:04pm
Quoting ady_babe
Hi there active contributors!


Im just wondering if this is a good source of COT data.

http://cotbase.com/

It seems like a pretty easy to understand, clear and concise site? Any thoughts from the more experienced COT users is appreciated. A fool and his money is soon parted, which could be me.

Keep up the excellent work it is well appreciated.
Hey ady, I subscribe.. I find it an excellent site...

Ja.
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #5,744
  • Dec 20, 2012 8:47am Dec 20, 2012 8:47am
Hi shahab8b, I want to ask something about one of your past reply. I dont know exactly which page, but I am curious that where I can find the graphical illustration of cot report attached by you. Thanks for sharing.
  • #5,745
  • Dec 20, 2012 9:16am Dec 20, 2012 9:16am
Quoting ensark
Hi shahab8b, I want to ask something about one of your past reply. I dont know exactly which page, but I am curious that where I can find the graphical illustration of cot report attached by you. Thanks for sharing.
Ditto. Where can I find a nice chart like this?
Attached Image
  • #5,746
  • Dec 22, 2012 6:13am Dec 22, 2012 6:13am
Quoting cdndollar
Bullish B/O trade closed for peanuts.. in hindsight anticipation of reversal from bearish wedge divergence..
I think the lesson here is never anticipate divergence against minor resist under prevailing immediate strong bullish bias.. also, the market play tricks with our mind if we focus our eyes on those wriggly lines moving across the screen..
Hi cdndollar. First of all sorry for abusing this thread but this came to my mind and I'd like to share this:

I trade S/R myself but also use an indicator (CCI(20)) for divergence but never trade on it alone. I prefer the hidden divergence but only if it lines up with S/R because I don't believe in an indicator telling me a trend will reverse as regular divergence is supposed to do.
After resistance (at the "X") has been taken out, price often comes back to it to test it as support. If this happens and the indicator shows additionally hidden divergence, my confidence in taking this trade is pretty high as I go with the trend and have a good, "deep" entry.
In this picture there are even two working examples of this "method"...

Sorry again for my offtopic post.
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  • #5,747
  • Dec 22, 2012 8:10pm Dec 22, 2012 8:10pm
Quoting wssrsprngr
Hi cdndollar. .... this came to my mind and I'd like to share this:
Thank you for sharing..

Quoting cdndollar
Price is now up against .8450.. a major confluence zone plus weekly & monthly R2 with another wedge & bearish divergence.. may be worth a short with weak PA for a S/T correction down to .8300..
Quoting cdndollar
Sold small .8438 with tight stop..
Attachment
Gone flat at the figure.. PA now approaching good M/T demand zone again.. near term volatility may increase with the thin holiday market..

NZDUSD W1
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Euro printed 1.33 after taking out the strong supply zone from September.. per-holiday TP & the delay in FC had given bulls the 1st reload/scale-in zone here.. Beware of holiday predator traps here with bears salivating over the weekly pinbar.. may over-shot up to 1.3468 before year-end..

EURUSD D1+W1 overlay
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EURUSD Quarterly @12202012
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1356047699

USDX vs EURUSD @12182012
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1355798927


Have'pip New Year everyone..
  • #5,748
  • Edited 9:45am Dec 26, 2012 9:20am | Edited 9:45am
shahab8b

I think USDJPY and GBPJPY are reaching an quite interesting point on weekly charts:
Major SR area
Fib 50
EMA200 (I'm a believer of it)
Divergence -- GBPJPY

What do you think?
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  • #5,749
  • Jan 7, 2013 12:07am Jan 7, 2013 12:07am
Hi and Happy New Year,
Wishing everybody a prosperous year filled with Health, happiness and also tons of PIPS.
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #5,750
  • Jan 15, 2013 2:12pm Jan 15, 2013 2:12pm
Just got some positioining info from a certain German bank. Makes interesting reading, EUR/USD has switched to long for the first time in almost two years and Kiwi , Looney and Aussie are at long levels not seen since beginning of March 2012.... look what happened after that. (Disclosure: I am short Kiwi, long AUD knock out puts, and Long EUR/CHF) Cheers
  • #5,751
  • Jan 15, 2013 5:00pm Jan 15, 2013 5:00pm
This channel looks very interesting to me. If the CHF keeps weakening and this falls, that translates to a VERY weak Kiwi Dollar. Disclosure: I am short Kiwi
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  • #5,752
  • Jan 15, 2013 8:57pm Jan 15, 2013 8:57pm
Quoting Hyperion
Just got some positioining info from a certain German bank. Makes interesting reading, EUR/USD has switched to long for the first time in almost two years and Kiwi , Looney and Aussie are at long levels not seen since beginning of March 2012.... look what happened after that. (Disclosure: I am short Kiwi, long AUD knock out puts, and Long EUR/CHF) Cheers
good info..
Since FX does not move in a straight line, you can bet that the other camp will be shouting for 1.25~1.20 again every time Euro retrace a few figures en-route to 1.45..


Quoting cdndollar
Smart Money had been covering their long & mid term shorts with a gradual shift in sentiment from bearish to bullish since May 2012..
Sentiment have cross over from net bearish to net bullish for the 1st time since January 2011 when Euro climb another 10+ figures from 1.32 to 1.49.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1357620450

Medium Term, Looks like the Smart Money crowd are calling for 1.35~1.46 again..

Near Term, we have Daily & H4 "GO" Buy the Dips for retest of 1.33+ with potential pop up to 1.35..

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1357620343

"Follow the Trail of Smart Money"
  • #5,753
  • Edited 2:07pm Jan 19, 2013 1:32pm | Edited 2:07pm
shahab8b

If you are still around, I have a couple of questions:
(1) I think JPY is getting a divergence on COT index. Maybe it's going to be a moderate uptrend from now on -- means we could try shorting for a small profit, even though the main uptrend is intact. What do you think?
(2) Where do you get a nice COT chart like this?

Thank you very much in advance!
Attached Image
  • #5,754
  • Jan 20, 2013 6:06pm Jan 20, 2013 6:06pm
I often look at intermarket corelations, the iron ore / Aussie dollar one is well known... attached is the Kiwi Dollar over the Milk futures price as traded on the CME. Makes be wanna short the kiwi....
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  • #5,755
  • Jan 25, 2013 9:13pm Jan 25, 2013 9:13pm
Looking to short at the end of Wave C. There’s also an overlap of 50% Fib (drawn from high of Wave 1 to low of Wave 5) and 1.618 (drawn from high to low of Wave B).

Will need PA for confirmation of short setup.

Any feedback welcomed.
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Know Your Trading Edge and Trade It
  • #5,756
  • Jan 28, 2013 8:21am Jan 28, 2013 8:21am
You might find this interesting
http://www.shanghaidaily.com/article...o#jtss-twitter

Quoting Hyperion
I often look at intermarket corelations, the iron ore / Aussie dollar one is well known... attached is the Kiwi Dollar over the Milk futures price as traded on the CME. Makes be wanna short the kiwi....
  • #5,757
  • Jan 28, 2013 1:54pm Jan 28, 2013 1:54pm
Quoting drewIOW
You might find this interesting
http://www.shanghaidaily.com/article...o#jtss-twitter
It's a storm in a tea cup, testing these days is way more accurate than ever. It's probably always been there. Only thing that is negative is how long it took the people that knew (inclucing Govt) to air the issue. However for other reasons I still see Kiwi and AUD lower against the US$. Thanks for the link, though that paper is a bit slow as the story broke last Friday. London and Swiss were sellers of the Kiwi on their open yesterday. Seems a bit knee jerk to me.
  • #5,758
  • Jan 29, 2013 6:07am Jan 29, 2013 6:07am
FWIW
Ive swing E/U sell resistances at 3500, 3545, 3650 and 3785 and short term G/U buy supports at 5550, 5360 and 5160
  • #5,759
  • Jan 29, 2013 5:19pm Jan 29, 2013 5:19pm
Does anbody have any idea where is shahab8b?
  • #5,760
  • Jan 29, 2013 8:53pm Jan 29, 2013 8:53pm
Hi All,
Just took this trade, should be a quick and easy one..
Good Luck all
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