I would not short here, for the below reason.... I get Deutche's reasoning, but for a short term player, there is a good chance higher levels will follow any dip..
AUDUSD at the second target.... A case can be made that it is up in 5 waves, which may be impulsive and indicative a short term trend change.... could also be part of zigzag... which means dip, then higher... both cases point higher,.
The forex pair has interrupted its sequence of measured moves lower, so I believe it's due for a larger retracement higher.
However the levels around 1.0330-80 never traded and this has me worried because there is where professional and Program Trading would participate on the long side. So I assume what it is going to unfold is just short covering and we have more downside (Scenario 1 below, is the more probable for me)
These are the 2 scenarios I could identify in the short-term and going forward:
Scenario 1. If price sees 1.0430 area that would be a good entry with a stop below 1.0410. 1st target is at 1.0480 area, right a resistance.
Scenario 2. Only if price moves above 1.0520 I will give bulls credibility. In that case price could dip once again into the 1.0460-80 area and then continue higher
A good long opportunity is unfolding here.
Trade safe
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
On the EUR/USD, just to make an example, there are $2.7M worth of exchange every second. I am not jealous is someone can make money out of my analysis. Make no mistake, though, at times I will be wrong (who isn't?). So need to average out.
