NZD/USD

I am also wondering. Commodity currencies all dropping but NZD dropped like a rock.
Is this related to the diary problem recently? or a pre-positioning before the rate decision?

I'd be keen to understand it. Cost me a few $. Couldn't see any news on the horizon or breaking. Just when you think you've got a high-prob trade you're back to square one.

Was Monday a holiday and just thin trade? Someone in the Aussie room said it was an Aussie holiday.

I was long for a move up but I ended up I riding her all the way down and back up to 0.845 so I am out with a small loss.

You win some you lose some....

- Check out this site: http://www.investing.com/forex-tools...ion-calculator

- You will find that; the strongest inverse relationship for NZD/USD is with EUR/NZD .

- So, as long as Euro will gain, NZD will drop.

- GL.

You state "Euro" and if you look at EUR/NZD the relationship is clear between those two. But I don't see the relationship between the EUR/USD and NZD/USD. Here is a capture from Prophet charts showing 2 hour candles over 5 days. There is nothing in the chart for EUR/USD that corresponds to the big drop. EUR/USD is in blue on the left scale and NZD/USD is in red and uses the right scale.

I still don't know what caused that big drop on 1/28/2013.It has come back to the same level from where it started, but nothing I can find to explain it.

Hope to make all who are long currencies towards the USD happy with this post.

This is what I see in the Dollar Index going forward. Maybe 79 hit by the end of the week.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1359472549

The 80.20-30 level of resistance has been consistent and held all the time the EUR/USD was supported by the 1.3260 level.

By breaking the 79.70 level the Dollar Index confirmed the 1st target printing right at previous lows, in the 79 area. That's where I see DX in the coming days maybe - as anticipated - by the end of the week.

Notice that the 79.30 area has been previous sloppy support and is here a broken line. I think there is also broken participation at those levels. Do not anticipate a reaction in that area.

Trade safe & good luck

Some new people say they are here to learn.
To those who think that playing the news is smart I ask to read this post from my blog.

"Do you think facts and 'Truth' (i.e. market news) make money?"

Read this and think again: http://wp.me/p2oF7p-pr

My opinion, of course, but found that a few successful traders agree with that article.

Let me know your thoughts...

I still see no clear EUR/USD to NZD/USD correlation. Anyone else see one?

short @ 0.8430
sl @ 0.8440
tp @ 0.8355

I waited for the past hourly candle to close, after it touched the 45 degree angle from the swing low on 01-28-13, before shorting.

unstoppable - looks like a massive break out next week -tempted to go long at closing of today 02/01/2013

Something leaves me a little sceptical of the recent movements, and its not just my bias as a USD bull at present.
Look at AUD, daily or weekly. Then look at NZD. Compare and contrast the two - they move in VERY similar ways.

The action of the last three days on AUD and of the last three days on NZD is rather strange, and almost opposite. One pair has to give in and start following the other, as always happens in the past. Id seems to me the NZD has to come meet AUD, for the following reason:

-AUD is the "stronger" currency, the once which leads the pack between the two. Hell, its worth more. Ive personally observed that its usually NZD that acts crazy out of the two, and eventually meets AUD. Not the other way around.
-AUD is currently consistent with news. This pair is HEAVILY reliant on CNY data, and recent releases havent been very good. NZDs movements arent very consistent with the news thats been received.
-The technicals still havent been broken. Quadruple weekly top, and the sixth time its hitting 8470 since December. Closed a little lower than that.

Im not saying first thing Monday we dont see 8500. Im not saying by Wednesday we wont see 8500. But I am saying theres quite a bit stacked against this pair going too high from here, and I would keep a very close eye on action between 8450-8470.

Any idea why Kiwi still up like that, no downs like AUD/USD!!!

AUD,JPY,GBP weakening gives NZD strength .. + Todays forecast is positive but i doubt that.We will have 100pip fall in 1-10second if we get negative data.

if datas will not be so good, it maybe fall ...i think

forecasts are too good

Thanks a lot for opinions, and hopefully we see any breaks today for this pair!

I hope this night this pair will break down...

me too

Sold NZDUSD 8478 TP 8400

2x short at 8468
1x at 8430

TP 8370 on all 3 orders
Price repeatedly dropped from these levels before.Strong supply above.If it goes higher I will sell more.

Nice idea.