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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Jan 30, 2013 9:41am Jan 28, 2013 7:33pm | Edited Jan 30, 2013 9:41am
"Back in the day", I cut my teeth trading currencies via GBP/JPY.

I love the violent, sporadic moves and the ability to make money quickly on this pair.

In 2007 we had an awesome group dedicated to trading "the beast" and the conditions were marvelous for spectacular moves. However, things died down after the mortgage crisis meltdown and Geppy hasn't been the same ever since (neither of us).

Now, with the craziness out of Japan and the Yen, I've been seeing new life breathing into the ol' beast.

I'm ready to start dedicating a lot more time and resources to trading the pair and want to get a thread for like-minded souls.

In the short-term, I now feel we're in correction mode and I've opened fresh shorts (now trading at 142.40), however, I'm keeping tight stops slightly above 142.80

I think a test of 140 or even 139 could be in order within the next couple days. If we reach there, I'll be in "wait and see mode".

Anyone else interested in joining this crusade to tame the beast?
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #2
  • Jan 28, 2013 8:04pm Jan 28, 2013 8:04pm
You are the best, i always love your fruitful analysis. Looking forward



Quoting Geppy
"Back in the day", I cut my teeth trading currencies via GBP/JPY.

I love the violent, sporadic moves and the ability to make money quickly on this pair.

In 2007 we had an awesome group dedicated to trading "the beast" and the conditions were marvelous for spectacular moves. However, things died down after the mortgage crisis meltdown and Geppy hasn't been the same ever since (neither of us).

Now, with the craziness out of Japan and the Yen, I've been seeing new life breathing into the ol' beast.

I'm ready to start dedicating a lot...
  • #3
  • Jan 28, 2013 9:50pm Jan 28, 2013 9:50pm
my shorts are barely hanging on... not much hope for them.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #4
  • Jan 28, 2013 10:20pm Jan 28, 2013 10:20pm
Welcome back. Cutting my teeth on this pair, as well. Been a year and still trying to figure this one out. It's an fairly easy scalp if you have the patience and time for it, but the lingering thought, that "this might be the big one" is the enemy. Oh well, live and learn. Short 142.84...i'll give it 10, but break even pretty quick. One thing i've learned...if i'm right, i'm right, if i'm wrong, she'll give me another chance later. I look forward to reading your thoughts on this pair. Win or lose, it's always entertaining.
  • #5
  • Jan 28, 2013 11:18pm Jan 28, 2013 11:18pm
current price...142.6...at b/e. target 141.5, but i see lower, too. figure a decent bounce, there. reload or reverse depending on what happens there.
  • #6
  • Jan 29, 2013 12:12am Jan 29, 2013 12:12am
Quoting jaxnole
Welcome back. Cutting my teeth on this pair, as well. Been a year and still trying to figure this one out. It's an fairly easy scalp if you have the patience and time for it, but the lingering thought, that "this might be the big one" is the enemy. Oh well, live and learn. Short 142.84...i'll give it 10, but break even pretty quick. One thing i've learned...if i'm right, i'm right, if i'm wrong, she'll give me another chance later. I look forward to reading your thoughts on this pair. Win or lose, it's always entertaining.
Hey jaxnole,

Good to have you here. Let winners run is always a tough mental challenge. My game plan is to take small losses and small wins until she runs my way.

I usually trade with 3 different EMAs on my charts, you'll see them often when I post. They are the 50 ema (green), 200 ema (yellow) and 800 ema (red). I color coded them that way so I can easily look at the chart and know what they are (fast, medium, slow... just like a traffic light).

When things trend, these work well for support/resistance, however, you can see from a 1h chart that things have been a bit choppy and there is no clear direction. That's when I hammer down to the 5 and 15min charts for scalping setups. Eventually, I'll snag the right position at the right time in the right direction.

I've got three positions on now with in-the-money stop losses in on the two highest ones. I'll be keeping my eye on the 15min chart and moving my SLs down as I see fit and try to update here as much as possible.

I'm not worried about getting stopped out which helps battle that mental barrier of wanting to hold for "the big one". Again, understand that you'll take some small losses and some small wins (that hopefully pay for the losses), but eventually you'll nab that 300+ pip trade ;-)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy15m.gif Size: 54 KB
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  • #7
  • Jan 29, 2013 12:14am Jan 29, 2013 12:14am
Quoting jaxnole
current price...142.6...at b/e. target 141.5, but i see lower, too. figure a decent bounce, there. reload or reverse depending on what happens there.
Good stuff, man. I actually just added another (smaller) position at 142.56

I usually pyramid my trades (to some degree), but the positions I enter after my initial buy/sell are generally smaller.

Let's hope for a runner
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #8
  • Jan 29, 2013 12:38am Jan 29, 2013 12:38am
Quoting Geppy
"Back in the day", I cut my teeth trading currencies via GBP/JPY.

I love the violent, sporadic moves and the ability to make money quickly on this pair.

In 2007 we had an awesome group dedicated to trading "the beast" and the conditions were marvelous for spectacular moves. However, things died down after the mortgage crisis meltdown and Geppy hasn't been the same ever since (neither of us).

Now, with the craziness out of Japan and the Yen, I've been seeing new life breathing into the ol' beast.

I'm ready to start dedicating a lot...
Hey geppy glad to see another JPY thread started, looking to forward to contributing and sharing ideas. I'm currently short g/j as well it's a hedge against an e/j long from 119.50. I'm looking for some selling pressure over the next couple of days as some profit taking & repositioning in front on NFP. I have a roughy target of 139.50 on my g/j shorts. My average price is 142.78.

http://i1356.photobucket.com/albums/...pse1c496eb.jpg
It works till it doesn't
  • #9
  • Jan 29, 2013 8:33am Jan 29, 2013 8:33am
Quoting DaEdge
Hey geppy glad to see another JPY thread started, looking to forward to contributing and sharing ideas. I'm currently short g/j as well it's a hedge against an e/j long from 119.50. I'm looking for some selling pressure over the next couple of days as some profit taking & repositioning in front on NFP. I have a roughy target of 139.50 on my g/j shorts. My average price is 142.78.

http://i1356.photobucket.com/albums/...pse1c496eb.jpg
Good stuff, nice to have you here!
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #10
  • Jan 29, 2013 8:42am Jan 29, 2013 8:42am
OK, here's an update to last night's positions:

I was just stopped out a bit ago of my initial sells that had stp losses that were slightly in-the-money. The wins from that definitely weren't much, but they help cover those small losses that we'll inevitably take along the way to riding the big one!

I've re-entered my trades now in the mid 142.70s with stops for all positions lying between 142.90 and 143.01

I'm not sure they'll survive at this point, but I'm keeping them tight. Chart below:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy15m.gif Size: 54 KB
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  • #11
  • Jan 29, 2013 8:52am Jan 29, 2013 8:52am
Quoting Geppy
OK, here's an update to last night's positions:

I was just stopped out a bit ago of my initial sells that had stp losses that were slightly in-the-money. The wins from that definitely weren't much, but they help cover those small losses that we'll inevitably take along the way to riding the big one!

I've re-entered my trades now in the mid 142.70s with stops for all positions lying between 142.90 and 143.01

I'm not sure they'll survive at this point, but I'm keeping them tight. Chart below:
Well, that didn't take long... stopped out of all positions and flat now.

This move is pretty impulsive and is now making me wonder if a base hasn't formed. I'll be watching to see how she reacts on a pullback.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #12
  • Jan 29, 2013 8:55am Jan 29, 2013 8:55am
affected by upcoming US news maybe?
  • #13
  • Jan 29, 2013 9:30am Jan 29, 2013 9:30am
Alright guys, my bias is now to the long side (at least for now).

When trading any pair, you need to be able to flip your bias and not get married to one side or another. This is particularly true with geppy as the swings can be crazy. Also, remember we're in a consolidation mode and the waters are choppy. There is no clear medium term direction so it's best to stay vigilant.

So, I'm long now and although I don't have my SLs in place yet, I'm keeping a careful watch on her. A clear break of 143.10 opens the door to test recent highs in the 144.20s

keep at it!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #14
  • Jan 29, 2013 11:49am Jan 29, 2013 11:49am
Long on retest of broken down trend line, target 143.5

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GJ 1-29.png Size: 35 KB
Soar on my wings, you'll touch the hand of God, he'll make you King.
  • #15
  • Jan 29, 2013 12:07pm Jan 29, 2013 12:07pm
Quoting whatever007
Long on retest of broken down trend line, target 143.5

Attachment
Nice entry there, I like it! This is looking quite a bit like the break out we had last week on the 23rd. Hopefully it's good for 400 pips too :-)
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  • #16
  • Jan 29, 2013 12:51pm Jan 29, 2013 12:51pm
Quoting Geppy
Nice entry there, I like it! This is looking quite a bit like the break out we had last week on the 23rd. Hopefully it's good for 400 pips too :-)
Very tricky day today still not convinced we're going up. The way I see it we have 2 likely scenarios we either make a run at the highs in front of NFP then sell off or we see some profit taking & selling pressure in front of NFP then see the run up for the highs after NFP. Right now were in the middle of no mans land. Going watch the close to see if it gives some type of clue on which scenario is more likely.
It works till it doesn't
  • #17
  • Jan 29, 2013 1:38pm Jan 29, 2013 1:38pm
This is currently my favourite pair, the moves are considerably larger over all compaired to other pairs.
  • #18
  • Jan 29, 2013 4:07pm Jan 29, 2013 4:07pm
Quoting Geppy
Nice entry there, I like it! This is looking quite a bit like the break out we had last week on the 23rd. Hopefully it's good for 400 pips too :-)
Thanks. Closed the trade out above 143 for a nice handful of pips. Frankly I can't tell what is going on here, just consolidating in front of Bernake tomorrow.

Thanks for starting this thread. I like to trade this thing but never seen any active discussion.
Soar on my wings, you'll touch the hand of God, he'll make you King.
  • #19
  • Jan 29, 2013 4:34pm Jan 29, 2013 4:34pm
I agree with the sentiment here... it's very unclear which direction this pair will take right now. We're definitely in a wait and see mode, but that doesn't stop me from drilling down to the 5 and 15min charts and getting some positions on.

It's key to remember that the overall trend right now is up. When it will continue that trend is anyone's guess.

For now, the 15min time-frame is looking interesting and may be hinting that the start of the next leg up is upon us. The first pop this morning was quite authoritative (in my opinion) and the second pop above 143 helped confirm it a bit.

I'd like to see us get up over 143.25 ... that would provide some more evidence that the next leg up may be underway.

Of course, I'll be moving my stops up and keeping them under recent support zones in order to secure pips along the way.

I'll update with a chart later tonight.
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  • #20
  • Jan 29, 2013 4:35pm Jan 29, 2013 4:35pm
Quoting whatever007
Thanks. Closed the trade out above 143 for a nice handful of pips. Frankly I can't tell what is going on here, just consolidating in front of Bernake tomorrow.

Thanks for starting this thread. I like to trade this thing but never seen any active discussion.
Good stuff. I'm holding on to my darlings and see if we can't get higher. Nice trade though!
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