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  • #26,101
  • Jan 28, 2013 8:46am Jan 28, 2013 8:46am
If my EWP reading is correct, the next wave will send the Aussie above 1.0410 to 1.0420 at least. IMO

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1354978659
daddybearforex. com
  • #26,102
  • Jan 28, 2013 8:58am Jan 28, 2013 8:58am
Interesting movements today, especially the difference in scale of drop between AUD and NZD. As a strong AUD and NZD bear, heres what I can say:
-AUD rejected 4 times at 1.06, and 4 of last 6 monthly candles have touched there without breaking.
-Triple top on NZD weekly chart. Latest (this weeks) candle at time of writing is a strong turn away from that top.
-January monthly NZD candle is comfiring December pinbar. 4 more days until thats confirmed, but at this point, its a long way up.

All in all, I look forward to February and March.
  • #26,103
  • Jan 28, 2013 10:01am Jan 28, 2013 10:01am
Quoting feelmypecs
Interesting movements today, especially the difference in scale of drop between AUD and NZD. As a strong AUD and NZD bear, heres what I can say:
-AUD rejected 4 times at 1.06, and 4 of last 6 monthly candles have touched there without breaking.
-Triple top on NZD weekly chart. Latest (this weeks) candle at time of writing is a strong turn away from that top.
-January monthly NZD candle is comfiring December pinbar. 4 more days until thats confirmed, but at this point, its a long way up.

All in all, I look forward to February and March.

IMO, 4 times rejection does not mean it won't make it next time.
daddybearforex. com
  • #26,104
  • Jan 28, 2013 10:08am Jan 28, 2013 10:08am
Quoting DaddyBear
IMO, 4 times rejection does not mean it won't make it next time.

Yes, next time will be in 2014 or 2015.
  • #26,105
  • Jan 28, 2013 10:16am Jan 28, 2013 10:16am
Quoting chiknthief
Yes, next time will be in 2014 or 2015.
Chik, you forgot this.........
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Deodorant.JPG Size: 57 KB
daddybearforex. com
  • #26,106
  • Jan 28, 2013 10:24am Jan 28, 2013 10:24am
intra-day view, resistance @ 1.0410 support @ 1.035

AU M15:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Picture0125.jpg Size: 99 KB
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #26,107
  • Jan 28, 2013 10:29am Jan 28, 2013 10:29am
Quoting USD-Bear
intra-day view, resistance @ 1.0410 support @ 1.035

AU M15:
Attachment

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1359390261
UB, this chart helps people see a bigger picture. Thanks.
daddybearforex. com
  • #26,108
  • Jan 28, 2013 10:30am Jan 28, 2013 10:30am
Many experts say the AUD and the CAD are commodity currencies. So with that in mind we should be tracking the CRB Index (the CRB tracks the major commodities)

http://www.crbtrader.com/crbindex/crbdata.asp
http://thomsonreuters.com/products_services/financial/thomson_reuters_indices/indices/commodity_indices/

Cycles and seasonals project weak overall commodities until the latter part of this year. (august/september) This doesn't bode well for the AUD right now. Expect a weaker aussie for quite some time.
  • #26,109
  • Jan 28, 2013 10:30am Jan 28, 2013 10:30am
Quoting DaddyBear
UB, this chart helps people see a bigger picture. Thanks.
The issue is how strong it is. Can it hold up the Bulls? 1.0440 may be stronger IMO.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1359390261
daddybearforex. com
  • #26,110
  • Jan 28, 2013 10:32am Jan 28, 2013 10:32am
Quoting DaddyBear
Chik, you forgot this.........

haha
  • #26,111
  • Jan 28, 2013 10:35am Jan 28, 2013 10:35am
Quoting chiknthief
haha
haha?
Attached Image
daddybearforex. com
  • #26,112
  • Jan 28, 2013 10:46am Jan 28, 2013 10:46am
Quoting DaddyBear
UB, this chart helps people see a bigger picture. Thanks.
sorry daddy, it was supposed to illustrate the 1.0410 level, here an H4 TF with the 1.035
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Picture0126.jpg Size: 120 KB
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #26,113
  • Jan 28, 2013 10:48am Jan 28, 2013 10:48am
Quoting DaddyBear
The issue is how strong it is. Can it hold up the Bulls? 1.0440 may be stronger IMO.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1359390261
agreed
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #26,114
  • Jan 28, 2013 11:15am Jan 28, 2013 11:15am
Hourly momentum divergence

Sell rallies
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDH1 mom div.JPG Size: 118 KB
  • #26,115
  • Jan 28, 2013 11:47am Jan 28, 2013 11:47am
Quoting chiknthief
Hourly momentum divergence

Sell rallies
When momentum is up, IMO the selling pressure is gaining the momentum and vice versa. Now I see the momentum is dropping, IMO the buying pressure is building up.
daddybearforex. com
  • #26,116
  • Jan 28, 2013 11:52am Jan 28, 2013 11:52am
A whisper in my ear says we are going to blast off and never look back at this level for a long, long time

I must be dreaming hehe~
  • #26,117
  • Jan 28, 2013 12:07pm Jan 28, 2013 12:07pm
Quoting DaddyBear
When momentum is up, IMO the selling pressure is gaining the momentum and vice versa. Now I see the momentum is dropping, IMO the buying pressure is building up.
Momentum indicators reveal an ebbing of the market's power(i.e. speed of price change, breadth, and in lower degrees, volume) in fifth waves and in B waves in expanded flats, creating "momentum divergences."
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #26,118
  • Jan 28, 2013 12:23pm Jan 28, 2013 12:23pm
Quoting DaddyBear
The contract for 1.0360 is $96,50 each. The maximum is $100. There is no profit to make. By 1500 EST, my contract value may be $50 for example. I can close it and make $46 profit. If it goes down, I lose $3. You may have to visit Nadex website to understand what that market is.
Had a look at nadex and 24options. It is only for daily gambling. I would like it better if there are binary options for next month or next 3 months, etc.

Also found http://www.trading247.com/ which allows you gamble for the price at the end of week, in addition of the price at the end of day. I like it that you only bet on the current price instead of a specific strike price.

Binary options is just one type of gambling so one could not load too much, for example more than 500 bucks, on a trade.
  • #26,119
  • Jan 28, 2013 12:31pm Jan 28, 2013 12:31pm
Quoting DaddyBear
When momentum is up, IMO the selling pressure is gaining the momentum and vice versa. Now I see the momentum is dropping, IMO the buying pressure is building up.
ADX rises with the trend both up and down..................Momentum is a different bird. It rises with an uptrend and falls with a downtrend UNLESS divergence is present - then it wont confirm new highs and lows. Here it matches prices in a downtrend.
Attached Image
  • #26,120
  • Jan 28, 2013 12:50pm Jan 28, 2013 12:50pm
We may be seeing a wave 3 unfolding now.
daddybearforex. com
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