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  • #3,081
  • Jan 28, 2013 12:13pm Jan 28, 2013 12:13pm
Quoting Crassius

The Do Not Touch option has a strike that has not traded in over a year... as I posted earlier, it will get a long drawn out defense, and may require a news spike to break...

Almost all the selling that we are seeing that blocks price from taking back 3480 is coming from the option defense.... eventually they'll exhaust all the ammo and stop trying to turn price away, or a news spike will overwhelm even their considerable firepower... (They are probably a Central Bank... and most likely speak Chinese)
  • #3,082
  • Jan 28, 2013 12:35pm Jan 28, 2013 12:35pm
Just came back to see what's going on with charts, I droped some intraday pivot to see what both walls represent and seems like Dpp stands well, still waiting for 3500 to be hit,
Sterling loosing its ground next line for me lays about 1,5612/1,5600 last chance for bull than break of a trend and 5474 ish in sight

http://s8.postimage.org/biv67ut85/euro.gif
picture sharing
swing it!
  • #3,083
  • Jan 28, 2013 12:46pm Jan 28, 2013 12:46pm
Quoting tomspin
Sterling loosing its ground next line for me lays about 1,5612/1,5600 last chance for bull than break of a trend and 5474 ish in sight
I have a target almost ontop of that in my re-think of GBPUSD after Carney's comments....
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  • #3,084
  • Jan 28, 2013 1:07pm Jan 28, 2013 1:07pm
Good Advice











Which would you rather be, right or rich?

Written by Jamie Coleman
January 28, 2013 at 18:54 GMT

One of my favorite things about dealing with retail traders day in and day out is their certitude as they slowly bleed themselves dry.


If one more of you clowns tells me “nothing has changed” in EUR/USD, USD/JPY (you pick the pair), I’m gonna scream.


Markets don’t move in double-digit percentages because “nothing has changed.”


The key to be successful in the market is listening to the price action, not doggedly clinging to a losing trade.


Wake up!
  • #3,085
  • Jan 28, 2013 5:12pm Jan 28, 2013 5:12pm
Quoting Crassius
Here's an intraday trade idea I view as a scalp.... potential for 25 to 55 pips...

Slowly but surely this trade is working out... I bailed at Break even + a couple when it became apparent that EURUSD had to correct more...

Here is one way this trade could go.... and why you can't really move your stop up much, if at all....

So far it is in one wave only... its Wave a.... we have to have a pullback... often as deep as the .618 .... that's 0397 at this point...

If that were to happen, the original targets line up with the commonly seen fib extensions off a 0397 pullback....

Total speculation for now, until we actually see the pullback in place... I'm going to bed but wanted to post this update in case anyone was still in this idea from earlier today...

I plan to fade 0430.....
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  • #3,086
  • Jan 28, 2013 11:20pm Jan 28, 2013 11:20pm
Good data kept AUDUSD chugging higher without a pause....

Its reacting to the resistance anticipated, and it has probably put in at least a short term high, but its too strong for me to fade....
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  • #3,087
  • Jan 29, 2013 1:54am Jan 29, 2013 1:54am
Just got filled on a half load buy limit order for EURUSD at 3430 Will add lower if get the chance... Stops sub 3350
  • #3,088
  • Jan 29, 2013 2:17am Jan 29, 2013 2:17am
Good Morning traders,
I think the Euro is a 'safe' add at this levels with stops below 1.3408.
Chart will follow...

Have a great trading day.
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #3,089
  • Jan 29, 2013 2:30am Jan 29, 2013 2:30am
Quoting fibstalker
Good Morning traders,
I think the Euro is a 'safe' add at this levels with stops below 1.3408.
Chart will follow...

Have a great trading day.

Buongiorno, Fibs...
  • #3,090
  • Jan 29, 2013 2:52am Jan 29, 2013 2:52am
Quoting Crassius
Here's an intraday trade idea I view as a scalp.... potential for 25 to 55 pips...
AUDUSD at the second target.... A case can be made that it is up in 5 waves, which may be impulsive and indicative a short term trend change.... could also be part of zigzag... which means dip, then higher... both cases point higher, although 0460 would be acommon terminus for a corrective pattern like a zigzag...

If I were still in this trade I would be tempted to take half profit now, and follow the other half with a stop below creeping it up piece by piece incase AUDUSD continues higher that the 0460 anticipated.... you might be able to keep a following stop and get more pips out of this move by letting the market hit the following stop if it will.... when it will...
  • #3,091
  • Jan 29, 2013 2:54am Jan 29, 2013 2:54am
Quoting Crassius
Buongiorno, Fibs...
Buongiorno a te Crassius,
'Crassius was a rich Roman senator.... '

have a great trading day
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #3,092
  • Jan 29, 2013 2:55am Jan 29, 2013 2:55am
Quoting fibstalker
Good Morning traders,
I think the Euro is a 'safe' add at this levels with stops below 1.3408.
Chart will follow...
Here is my chart for the day for the Euro FX currency futures contract:

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1359448626

Yesterday we had price holding the 1.3430 area which corresponds to an extension long setup with failure below 1.3408. In the morning, after the London open (actually at the German desks open) that very area was supported and funds/program trading came in to buy.

At the moment I see the following two scenarios going forward:

Scenario 1. If price keeps above 1.3408 we could see a continuation higher into 1.3510 and possibly the 1.3600 area

Scenario 2. Should price move below the 1.3408 level we could see a slide into 1.3380s or even the 1.3300 area, next daily extension long. There price could resume its move higher (broken line in the above picture).

Notice that we have unfinished business at 1.3600. This is the second target of the bull flag we saw forming in the last 2 weeks on top of the 1.3260 support level. Also the 1.3510 area is 1st target of the smallest extension offering support at 1.3425-30 area (which traded in the morning) and lines up with sensible resistance. We could see mild profit taking there, or we could not.

Let me know your thoughts. Thanks.

Have a great trading day.
Cheers
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #3,093
  • Jan 29, 2013 2:56am Jan 29, 2013 2:56am
I will post a video on the Euro/Dollar cross later on.
Cheers
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #3,094
  • Jan 29, 2013 3:07am Jan 29, 2013 3:07am
Quoting fibstalker
Also the 1.3510 area is 1st target of the smallest extension offering support at 1.3425-30 area (which traded in the morning) and lines up with sensible resistance. We could see mild profit taking there, or we could not.

Let me know your thoughts. Thanks.

Have a great trading day.
Cheers
I understand your thinking here, but would add that there is a growing pile of buy orders layering into 3505 - 15, beyond the option protected barrier of 3500.... including my add order if I don't get filled lower than this morning partial fill at 3430...

That surge in buying interest when/if 3500 breaks should negate any profit taking downward pressure at 3510, IMHO.
  • #3,095
  • Jan 29, 2013 3:13am Jan 29, 2013 3:13am
Quoting Crassius
I understand your thinking here, but would add that there is a growing pile of buy orders layering into 3505 - 15, beyond the option protected barrier of 3500.... including my add order if I don't get filled lower than this morning partial fill at 3430...

That surge in buying interest when/if 3500 breaks should negate any profit taking downward pressure at 3510, IMHO.
Thanks Crassius that's a very good observation there. This is why I wrote that it could not. However, if we look at higher timeframes (e.g. weekly) there are still a lot of people short this market and these people will try to add (averaging down their holds). So although I agree with you and I personally would be very happy to see price just slide through that 1.3500 area, I cannot rule out completely any attempts from the big money (this time wrong money, I believe, and they will have their head handed over to them) to batter the Euro down.

That said, I have no idea what price will do there but will definitely hold for bulls in that area.

Let's wait and see. I clearly see where you are coming from.
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #3,096
  • Jan 29, 2013 3:18am Jan 29, 2013 3:18am
Quoting Crassius
AUDUSD at the second target.... .

German bank issues sell recommendation of AUD (EURAUD) at current levels (0455/60)... may put pressure on AUD... They are right on the dot of my second target from yesterday..... down ten pips as I typed this...
  • #3,097
  • Jan 29, 2013 3:38am Jan 29, 2013 3:38am
Quoting Crassius
German bank issues sell recommendation of AUD (EURAUD) at current levels (0455/60)... may put pressure on AUD... They are right on the dot of my second target from yesterday..... down ten pips as I typed this...

I would not short here, for the below reason.... I get Deutche's reasoning, but for a short term player, there is a good chance higher levels will follow any dip..

Quoting Crassius
AUDUSD at the second target.... A case can be made that it is up in 5 waves, which may be impulsive and indicative a short term trend change.... could also be part of zigzag... which means dip, then higher... both cases point higher,.
Attached Image
  • #3,098
  • Jan 29, 2013 3:43am Jan 29, 2013 3:43am
Bears in control on the 15min chart. Possible retest of the bottoms...
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #3,099
  • Jan 29, 2013 3:45am Jan 29, 2013 3:45am
Quoting Crassius
I would not short here, for the below reason.... I get Deutche's reasoning, but for a short term player, there is a good chance higher levels will follow any dip..
Nice Crassius, my analysis is saying the same.Potential resistance at 1.0480... Nice
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #3,100
  • Jan 29, 2013 3:52am Jan 29, 2013 3:52am
Quoting fibstalker
Nice Crassius, my analysis is saying the same.Potential resistance at 1.0480... Nice

Thanks... love it when different techniques agree

It would take a Italian to "get" my username
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