Euro/Dollar

Hi Crassius, guys...
I can see stong support below 1.5700, at around 1.56800-1.56700
Combination of Fibo and S/R
However I wouldn't expect a stong bounce, but rather consolidation in this area.

And here's something for Japanese Sushi fans... (EURJPY)

Aussie got to a very interesting level now...
How do you think, which scenario is more likely to happen next week?

I've got limited time on my hands so for me two targets, most likely will test that red trendline,

http://s2.postimage.org/ejiursybt/aussie.gif
picture sharing

Hello,
this is my view on the Dollar Index on the 4-hour chart.



On Dec 20th, we had the start of that move higher I call the Fiscal Cliff rally. Eventually it came to an end. Price moved lower and then bounce again during the last two weeks.

I think bears are back in control in the Dollar Index. But this has a strange taste as we area seeing the minor pairs (USDJPY, USDGBP and USDCAD) showing weakness to the dollar. While EUR/USD has been consolidating on top of the 1.3250-70 area for almost 2 weeks, DX had a bullish bias, due to the contribution of minor pairs, but its price was contained by resistance at the 80.20-30 area.

The resistance at 80.20 is also a short setup with a target in the 79s. To be able to believe in a move to previous lows in the 79.10 area I need to see price trading below the 79.70 level. Notice that the 79.70-90 area has been providing support for the last 4 days.

On the other hand, should price move again above the 80.05 level a new retest of the 80.30 area could be possible. This could probably mean the 1.3300 area retested by EUR/USD.

Price will tell.

Trade safe.

Here's an intraday trade idea I view as a scalp.... potential for 25 to 55 pips... (Those are scalps to me... not 5 or 10 pips)

Your skill at moving the stop to break even is important to this trade....

The plan is to get in with a stop below the low... which as a 5th wave low should prove very strong.... move the stop to Break even as soon as possible...

Hope for a run at 1.0460.

Wait for the trigger to breach...

This trade requires nimble hands... ability to read price action, and crank the stop up quickly is paramount .

SEtup invalid if we trade below 1.0384 before trigger above 1.400 is breached... (Edit: 1.0400)

This is a counter trend pull back, and as such it is riskier than a trade in the direction of the larger trend...

yes...
I am hunting this corrective move as well, though I am hesitating, I am thinking this could be too early now.

not to late, I agree about Crassius's plan from 4000 4007 on my charts exactly, Watch for daily candle close today as well I will post more after session end.

I'min... Its important to keep the stop below 1.0384 for now... pullbacks will not breach if the count is correct.... if it is breached count is wrong, and we are out of the trade...

It could be wrong of course... maybe what I am counting as fifth wave completed at 1.0384 is really only the bottom of the third interior wave and there is one more swing low to come... I don't have a chrystal ball

I'm betting it isn't with nearly 2 to 1 R/R on the first target and the promise of much more if we extend to 1.0460...

Both of which are realistic targets against a realistic stop loss... If I'm wrong this time it doesn't matter in the long wrong.... I'm right enough times, with the right R/R considerations that I don't care about losses.... they are part of the game... inevitable and unavoidable...

Maybe there is one more leg down.... I think there is one more leg down in EURUSD, and USDJPY.... so who knows... maybe they'll bring AUDUSD down one more leg with them... It'll have to be deep enough to take my Stop Loss out if it does...

Possibility for EURUSD....

I have had a buy limit order at 1.3220 all morning that has gone unfilled.... I will now raise a few pips for this possibility....

Not interested in buying higher unless on a break of 1.3500...

Option expirey at 1.3450 in 20 min or so... influencing immediate PA...

...

I just closed mine + a couple of pips...

Looking cross market EURUSD and USDJPY... and by implication EURJPY.... have more correcting to do.... could bring on a swoon across to AUDUSD... not worth the risk....

Watch out for some GBP volatility.... Carney on the wires in a coupe minutes... His weekend comments were behind the gap lower...

Price action should have made five clean waves down with no overlap if we were in wave c of an ABC correction.

The overlap has me thinking triangle now... sideways action... that would mean no chance to reload lower than (a) as it must hold if triangle is in fact what we are in...

Its early for that interpretation... but we saw three waves down, three waves up.... and we then need five waves down for an ABC...

But, we didn't get that.... the overlap means we got 3 waves down, not 5....

Only triangle can fit a 3,3,3 scenario....

Time will tell.... but the correction continues for now... need more bars to draw out to get firmer picture...

Rumor hitting that UK sovereign downgrade coming.... Take with avery large grain of salt

Do you think the triangle could be wave b of an a-b-c, or do you think all of wave 4 is a triangle?

I'll post a chart in a little while...

I think the rise to 3479 is all of the move out of the last triangle wave 4 we were in last week.... in other 3479 is top if wave 5 of wave 1...

(I have changed from previous count of 3479 as top of wave (iii))

That puts us in the interior waves of a wave 2.... and that wave 2 looks like one of two possibilities...

either an ABC flat, with 3,3,5 interior waves.... This would mean we can reload lower than (a)... at 3422 the 100% extension, or more likely closer to the 3400 figure..

or maybe with the overlap on smaller timeframe (15Min) showing up we are getting clues that instead of a flat for wave 2, we are getting a triangle...
That means we won't get a chance to reload lower than (a)....

Chart will make it more clear... let me post one in a few...

Keep the big picture in mind... we are getting ready to start the longest and strongest wave in the large scale silver degree, Wave 3.... that means big up move coming... I have to be patient and find a good place to re-enter...

Entering after the Do NOT Touch option barrier is removed with a print above 3500, is not a terrible entry given the considerable move that will follow... If I can't find a good place to re-enter, I have an order resting up there.... That gives up some pips at the beginning pf the move, but it also keeps me out of unclear sideways action....

Long story short.. the picture has to be clearer for me to take on risk before the breakout above 3500... if it becomes clear I'll re- enter other wise I will buy the break of 3500

The Do Not Touch option has a strike that has not traded in over a year... as I posted earlier, it will get a long drawn out defense, and may require a news spike to break...