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Euro/Dollar

  • #3,041
  • Jan 27, 2013 1:42pm Jan 27, 2013 1:42pm
Quoting fibstalker
Hello all,
this is what I see in the Euro-Dollar.
I think long-term shorts failed last September and after a retracement lower .

Welcome. We encourage charts whenever possible. Your post would be clearer and even more valuable if you put your levels onto a chart and showed us visually as well as a verbal explanation.

This is isn't always possible or necessary, but a picture is worth a thousand words...

I agree with your pull back levels, at this time... I also am looking to reload at same levels depending on Price action once we approach them.
  • #3,042
  • Jan 27, 2013 1:46pm Jan 27, 2013 1:46pm
Quoting tomspin
that is why I believe we will see more sideways action towards 38's 40's area before any major sell out,

Refards
Tom

3800 to 4000 levels is another 400 - 500 pips higher..... I wouldn't classify that as sideways That's a big tradable move...
  • #3,043
  • Jan 27, 2013 1:58pm Jan 27, 2013 1:58pm
Agree, but somehow I think this could happen in the much more choppy manner, spring will be very educational for me, can't wait to see things unfold and hopefully understand what the heck happend
swing it!
  • #3,044
  • Jan 27, 2013 2:24pm Jan 27, 2013 2:24pm
Quoting Crassius
Welcome. We encourage charts whenever possible. Your post would be clearer and even more valuable if you put your levels onto a chart and showed us visually as well as a verbal explanation.

This is isn't always possible or necessary, but a picture is worth a thousand words...

I agree with your pull back levels, at this time... I also am looking to reload at same levels depending on Price action once we approach them.
Hello Crassius,
you are right, of course. Let me add here a weekly chart of the Euro FX futures and let me try to show when/where I saw the sequence of moves lower fail in september and why I am bullish in the Euro. Hope this is clear and I am very interested in your and others' comments.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6E_weekly_chart_20130127.png Size: 57 KB


I saw long term support at 1.2130. Participation from Program Trading and other professionals (not always aligned to banks, boutiques and hedge funds) started buying in July and with price moving above 1.2980 the short sequence on the weekly chart was interrupted.

Support came at 1.2680 with a first target hit last Friday in the 1.3440 area. Next target at 1.3840. See no reasons, at the moment, why price could not get there.

Hope this helps.
Cheers
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #3,045
  • Jan 27, 2013 2:45pm Jan 27, 2013 2:45pm
Quoting Crassius
Welcome. We encourage charts whenever possible. Your post would be clearer and even more valuable if you put your levels onto a chart and showed us visually as well as a verbal explanation.

This is isn't always possible or necessary, but a picture is worth a thousand words...

I agree with your pull back levels, at this time... I also am looking to reload at same levels depending on Price action once we approach them.

Timspin, Crassius, as I am new here, I had a question: can I post from time to time a link to video analysis on the daily 4-hour timeframe of the Euro?
My analysis makes use of Fibs so it's easier and quicker for me to explain my viewpoint with a video rather than to annotate a chart.

Can I link-back to posts in my Blog? thanks for your help.

Cheers
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #3,046
  • Jan 27, 2013 4:16pm Jan 27, 2013 4:16pm
Quoting fibstalker
Hello Crassius,
let me try to show when/where I saw the sequence of moves lower fail in september and why I am bullish in the Euro.
Now that is a very useful chart and a high quality post
  • #3,047
  • Jan 27, 2013 4:20pm Jan 27, 2013 4:20pm
Quoting Crassius
I agree with him ! My GBPUSD stop below 5700 is safe.... Famous Last Words !
I still think of course that we are near a short term bottom in GBPUSD, however the failed breakout and weak Opening after Carny's comments in Davos have the trade looking ill...

I have moved my stop to just under the emotional data spike low at 5740... If that gets taken out, I'll book the small loss and look to get back in on demonstrated strength...
  • #3,048
  • Jan 27, 2013 4:26pm Jan 27, 2013 4:26pm
Quoting fibstalker
Timspin, Crassius, as I am new here, I had a question: can I post from time to time a link to video analysis on the daily 4-hour timeframe of the Euro?
My analysis makes use of Fibs so it's easier and quicker for me to explain my viewpoint with a video rather than to annotate a chart.

Can I link-back to posts in my Blog? thanks for your help.

Cheers
Its Tom's thread so he will have to answer specifically.

Its is against not just this thread's policy, but Forex Factory policy that posts whose intention is promotion of a commercial endevour are prohibited except in the commercial forum.

That includes posts that are a veiled attempt at passing off promotional advertising as a free sharing of information.... Its still spam in these parts.
  • #3,049
  • Jan 27, 2013 4:41pm Jan 27, 2013 4:41pm
Quoting Crassius
Its Tom's thread so he will have to answer specifically.

Its is against not just this thread's policy, but Forex Factory policy that posts whose intention is promotion of a commercial endevour are prohibited except in the commercial forum.

That includes posts that are a veiled attempt at passing off promotional advertising as a free sharing of information.... Its still spam in these parts.
Thanks Crassius,
if you give a look to the blog you will see that there is no commercial endevour and I absolutely don't run advertising. But I will stick to the policy, no problems with that. Will also wait for Tim's answer. I have no issues this is why I asked

Cheers
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #3,050
  • Jan 27, 2013 4:56pm Jan 27, 2013 4:56pm
Quoting fibstalker
Thanks Crassius,
if you give a look to the blog you will see that there is no commercial endevour and I absolutely don't run advertising. But I will stick to the policy, no problems with that. Will also wait for Tim's answer. I have no issues this is why I asked

Cheers
I did take a look at your blog.. You'll find that posting quality stuff will lead anyone who recognizes the quality to check out your blog.
  • #3,051
  • Jan 27, 2013 5:18pm Jan 27, 2013 5:18pm
Quoting Crassius
I did take a look at your blog.. You'll find that posting quality stuff will lead anyone who recognizes the quality to check out your blog.
Thanks for your advice. I hope to find good discussions and feedbacks in FF forums too.

Have a good night.
Cheers
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #3,052
  • Jan 28, 2013 12:48am Jan 28, 2013 12:48am
Looking for some signs of a bounce near 3430 -- I think topside is limited by option barrier at 3500, so I want a better price, and I want to see some signs of actual strength before considering an entry --

With limited topside need to be choosey here --
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: count.png Size: 7 KB
  • #3,053
  • Jan 28, 2013 1:36am Jan 28, 2013 1:36am
Stopped out of my GBPUSD - 60... Will buy strength off 5700/20...
  • #3,054
  • Jan 28, 2013 3:03am Jan 28, 2013 3:03am
Quoting Crassius
Looking for some signs of a bounce near 3430 -- I think topside is limited by option barrier at 3500, so I want a better price, and I want to see some signs of actual strength before considering an entry --

With limited topside need to be choosey here --

Playing the break higher of 1.3500 may be the smarter play here... We all like to enter low and early, but I suspect lot of chop in the option barier defense zone of 1.3485 to 1.3500 and knowing exactly where you are in that chop and its pullbacks can be tricky...

There is plenty of upside left buying after the 1.3500 break....
  • #3,055
  • Jan 28, 2013 4:14am Jan 28, 2013 4:14am
Good Morning,
this is my view on the 4-hour chart for the Euro FX currency futures contract.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1359367105

What we saw so far in the Euro could be it for the retracement this week. Mondays print usually the high or low of the week. We will see, Mondays are also very dodgy days, because participation is not at full throttle so we could still see lower prices.

I believe we have targets above in the 1.3600 and 1.3670-1.3720 area before a deeper retracement (but what I believe is not very important, market is the king and price will tell...)

We have an important resistance level at the 1.3510 area. I anticipate a mild retracement there but price could just slice through it like it was not even there

If the move lower is not completed yet following are the levels of support I see if we get a deeper correction today or at the beginning of the week:
- first is 1.3405-1.3418 (matching previous highs);
- second is a full retracement from Wednesday lows at the 1.3380 area;
- third is the next daily extension long at the 1.3300 area.

Of course anything can happen and I will re-evaluate the Euro should price move below the 1.3250 level. I do not anticipate that happening though.

Have a great trading day and trade safe, after all is Monday.

Let me have your comments. Thanks

Cheers
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #3,056
  • Jan 28, 2013 4:24am Jan 28, 2013 4:24am
Quoting fibstalker
Good Morning,
this is my view on the 4-hour chart for the Euro FX currency futures contract.

Terrific post...
  • #3,057
  • Jan 28, 2013 4:44am Jan 28, 2013 4:44am
Quoting Crassius
Terrific post...
Thanks Crassius, glad you liked it. Hope it is helpful too. I am working on a 4-hour review for the Dollar Index and was planning to post it here, as well. I know this thread focuses on the Euro/Dollar, but being it 52% of the Dollar Index I often find useful to review DX to get some hints on what could happen to the EUR/USD.

Would you think it is a good idea to post my review of the Dollar Index on this thread?

Thank you.
Cheers
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #3,058
  • Jan 28, 2013 5:01am Jan 28, 2013 5:01am
It looks like EURUSD found support at 1.3424 and then broke the sequence of measured moves lower on the 15min.

If you are asking yourself, as I was doing, what that level is, it is where long term traders took profits on the last weekly move higher.

So it looks like hedge funds, programs and professional traders are re-entering around the same levels where they took some profits at on Friday.

We will wait and see for a confirmation.

Trade safe.
Cheers
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #3,059
  • Jan 28, 2013 5:06am Jan 28, 2013 5:06am
Quoting fibstalker
Thanks Crassius, glad you liked it. Hope it is helpful too. I am working on a 4-hour review for the Dollar Index and was planning to post it here, as well. I know this thread focuses on the Euro/Dollar, but being it 52% of the Dollar Index I often find useful to review DX to get some hints on what could happen to the EUR/USD.

Would you think it is a good idea to post my review of the Dollar Index on this thread?

Thank you.
Cheers

Yes definitely...
  • #3,060
  • Jan 28, 2013 5:10am Jan 28, 2013 5:10am
EURUSD unlikely to rally until JPY finishes correcting.... everything dances to JPY these days....

USDJPY trades 90/60's.... I'd like to see 90.20's to end its correction.... that leads me to think EURUSD has sideways to one more down move in it... not too far... 3410/15
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