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  • #26,021
  • Jan 27, 2013 12:23pm Jan 27, 2013 12:23pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
Yes, you would be correct sir.
He can keep calling upside when the price free falls. It is confusing as hell when you look at 10-20 pips movements.
  • #26,022
  • Jan 27, 2013 12:36pm Jan 27, 2013 12:36pm
Quoting mry2001
He can keep calling upside when the price free falls. It is confusing as hell when you look at 10-20 pips movements.
Merely speaking to his analysis of the chart that was posted.

I happen to like his EWC at this point, but only referring to monthly chart.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #26,023
  • Jan 27, 2013 1:11pm Jan 27, 2013 1:11pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
Merely speaking to his analysis of the chart that was posted.

I happen to like his EWC at this point, but only referring to monthly chart.

I'm no EWC fan. I'll look at it for entertainment purposes only. Everybody and their uncle has a different interpretation of it. Just like opinions : EVERYBODY GOT ONE.

And of course, bulls always can find their own reasons for any market to continue blasting off into the stratosphere. I love to hear it as a contrarian because you are the public and you are 100% WRONG at every market top and bottom. Contrarian traders just cannot get better odds than that. Kepp telling me this market is going up - I LOVE IT !!!
  • #26,024
  • Jan 27, 2013 1:14pm Jan 27, 2013 1:14pm
Quoting USD-Bear
, although I agree with you on your bearish view, the loudness and confidence of your warnings are scaring me a bit

tHE BULLS NEED TO BE SCARED
  • #26,025
  • Jan 27, 2013 1:28pm Jan 27, 2013 1:28pm
The US Dollar index has an UP cycle/seasonal lasting until the end of march which doesn't necessarily bode well for the AUD.
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  • #26,026
  • Jan 27, 2013 1:35pm Jan 27, 2013 1:35pm
BULLS - keep ignoring the 'smart money' commercial record net short and the cycles/seasonals at your own peril. Keep ignoring that the aussie is way over valued.

The BIG BEAR IS HERE
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  • #26,027
  • Jan 27, 2013 1:44pm Jan 27, 2013 1:44pm
Quoting chiknthief
I'm no EWC fan. I'll look at it for entertainment purposes only. Everybody and their uncle has a different interpretation of it. Just like opinions : EVERYBODY GOT ONE.

And of course, bulls always can find their own reasons for any market to continue blasting off into the stratosphere. I love to hear it as a contrarian because you are the public and you are 100% WRONG at every market top and bottom. Contrarian traders just cannot get better odds than that. Kepp telling me this market is going up - I LOVE IT !!!
Just so we are clear, I am short now and looking to lg it.

I am neither bull nor bear, I am neutral. As a contrarian, I would want to lg it here.

Your monthly chart shows bullish divergence and the potential for an upside breakout although it is a little indecisive and hard to analyze. The weekly is clearer imo.

Not saying it will happen, just interpreting. It certainly could continue straight down, but C seems to ending and there are a lot of fib numbers and demand zones that would indicate it should slow and reverse soon. Again, anything can happen, but looking at it in terms of probability.

We need to take out 1.035-7, should not be so easy to do.

As posted previously, looking for down cycle lat Jan then choppy, then down March/April, big rally in May. That would imply we would need an up at some point.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #26,028
  • Jan 27, 2013 2:01pm Jan 27, 2013 2:01pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
Just so we are clear, I am short now and looking to lg it.

I am neither bull nor bear, I am neutral. As a contrarian, I would want to lg it here.

Your monthly chart shows bullish divergence and the potential for an upside breakout although it is a little indecisive and hard to analyze. The weekly is clearer imo.

Not saying it will happen, just interpreting. It certainly could continue straight down, but C seems to ending and there are a lot of fib numbers and demand zones that would indicate it should slow and reverse soon. Again, anything...
I don't see how you'd call waning upside momentum - bullish divergence. I see momentum in a clear downtrend and prices still up near the highs. Thats very very bearish. It would be different if PA was much much lower than now. I have no idea what your "C" is either. Are you looking at a very short term chart? I see prices very high on the monthly chart. And demand zones? Is that support zones? Short term or long term? Where does one decide? Support/resistance zones always get broken at one time or another.
  • #26,029
  • Jan 27, 2013 2:12pm Jan 27, 2013 2:12pm
Hi Guys
After correctly assessing the bear move last week and had 2 short orders which I cut way too early with a loss taught me a valuable lesson.Stick to your plan.Could of made 250pips.....
Anyway this week I am looking for corrective move up at least 51 .618 fib retrace.
We had a completed bat Gartley and next move is up.
I will wait to get a feel if this is confirmed.Usually Asian secession creates lot of false spikes so real intent of the trend will exhibit much later... London open is preferable.
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #26,030
  • Jan 27, 2013 2:15pm Jan 27, 2013 2:15pm
Now on a short term TF - 4H to be exact, it looks like a bounce is due. I have my weekly MAC channel marked (dashed green line). Thats the point where I'll short some more. Notice that the 4H MAC channel red line is about the same place as weekly line. Sell bounces in a bear market.
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  • #26,031
  • Jan 27, 2013 2:16pm Jan 27, 2013 2:16pm
Quoting chiknthief
I don't see how you'd call waning upside momentum - bullish divergence. I see momentum in a clear downtrend and prices still up near the highs. Thats very very bearish. It would be different if PA was much much lower than now. I have no idea what your "C" is either. Are you looking at a very short term chart? I see prices very high on the monthly chart. And demand zones? Is that support zones? Short term or long term? Where does one decide? Support/resistance zones always get broken at one time or another.
On daily Price touched 200ema floating S/R and bounced up.As long as Price is above 200EMA we are still up trend.
Black line is 200EMA which is watched and respected by institutions.
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #26,032
  • Jan 27, 2013 2:25pm Jan 27, 2013 2:25pm
Quoting Davit
Hi Guys
After correctly assessing the bear move last week and had 2 short orders which I cut way too early with a loss taught me a valuable lesson.Stick to your plan.Could of made 250pips.....
Anyway this week I am looking for corrective move up at least 51 .618 fib retrace.
We had a completed bat Gartley and next move is up.
I will wait to get a feel if this is confirmed.Usually Asian secession creates lot of false spikes so real intent of the trend will exhibit much later... London open is preferable.
Davit - looks like your 50% line coincides very nicely with my weekly MAC channel line....... 10490 and 10486.
  • #26,033
  • Jan 27, 2013 2:29pm Jan 27, 2013 2:29pm
Quoting chiknthief
Davit - looks like your 50% line coincides very nicely with my weekly MAC channel line....... 10490 and 10486.
Yes but I think if price goes 47-49 it will want to go 50 and slightly up 618 fib for full classical retrace.
I share your view though
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #26,034
  • Jan 27, 2013 2:30pm Jan 27, 2013 2:30pm
Quoting Davit
On daily Price touched 200ema floating S/R and bounced up.As long as Price is above 200EMA we are still up trend.
Black line is 200EMA which is watched and respected by institutions.
Institutions are considered the 'public'. Large speculators. In the COT setup the institutions are on the wrong side of the market at every single major top and bottom. When the time is right, the institutions are great people to fade.
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  • #26,035
  • Jan 27, 2013 2:43pm Jan 27, 2013 2:43pm
Quoting chiknthief
Institutions are considered the 'public'. Large speculators. In the COT setup the institutions are on the wrong side of the market at every single major top and bottom. When the time is right, the institutions are great people to fade.
I meant none retail market which is 93% the pink elephant.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #26,036
  • Jan 27, 2013 4:17pm Jan 27, 2013 4:17pm
Quoting mry2001
He can keep calling upside when the price free falls. It is confusing as hell when you look at 10-20 pips movements.
I was not calling a short term upside but expressing my monthly bullish bias instead. In the short term, it will be up and down all the time. Please don't take my messages out of the context. Look at the TF carefully then come to a conclusion. I wouldn't advise anyone in this forum as to how to scalp 10-20 pips. This forum is not a trading service website.
daddybearforex. com
  • #26,037
  • Jan 27, 2013 8:12pm Jan 27, 2013 8:12pm
Although daily shows some bullishness at this point, H4 is still not reaching the bottom yet. IMO
daddybearforex. com
  • #26,038
  • Jan 27, 2013 8:23pm Jan 27, 2013 8:23pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Although daily shows some bullishness at this point, H4 is still not reaching the bottom yet. IMO
Seems to me a final downward thrust in H4/H1 context is needed before a reversal can occurs.
daddybearforex. com
  • #26,039
  • Jan 27, 2013 8:42pm Jan 27, 2013 8:42pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Seems to me a final downward thrust in H4/H1 context is needed before a reversal can occurs.
M15 is showing a sign of exhausting.
daddybearforex. com
  • #26,040
  • Jan 27, 2013 8:50pm Jan 27, 2013 8:50pm
Quoting DaddyBear
In fact, H4 is used for sub-waves analysis. Daily is the one to be used to count the wave correctly.
Yet these waves can be counted on any TF ?
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
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