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  • #25,961
  • Jan 26, 2013 7:33pm Jan 26, 2013 7:33pm
the blue one is broken... the next one gonna broken is red . once break ausie is going back to her mama and papa ..... ausie is back home from Pluto to the grave yard

Quoting DaddyBear
I'd say the red trend line is more reliable than the blue one.
not euphoria follower
  • #25,962
  • Jan 26, 2013 7:34pm Jan 26, 2013 7:34pm
Quoting DaddyBear
The question is whether the close or the low is more important in determining the trend line break.
Another way to look at this issue is applying EWP to see what pattern is forming.
Attached Image
daddybearforex. com
  • #25,963
  • Jan 26, 2013 7:41pm Jan 26, 2013 7:41pm
Quoting iqyu5an
the blue one is broken... the next one gonna broken is red . once break ausie is going back to her mama and papa ..... ausie is back home from Pluto to the grave yard
One more reason I think the red trend line will not break is based on my INDI X. I have noticed when it is away from Bollinger middle line, it will move back toward that line. Once it turns back up, the PA will be up as well.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1359249991
daddybearforex. com
  • #25,964
  • Jan 26, 2013 7:43pm Jan 26, 2013 7:43pm
Quoting forexalien
In forex you trade the waves up and down on different TF's, this is not a (sell or buy) and hold for many years. If you bought the GBP/JPY a year ago at 1.20xx, it went up 1500 pips in 3 months, 1500 pips down in 3 months, and back up 2500 pips in 6 months,

In one years time you could have collected 5500 pips if you rode the 3 waves it created for you. A mini account 1 contract = $5500.00 using a $250 margin, on a standard contract $55,000, that's a years wages for some people and more for most people.......just using $250 margin for the $5500........or...

Holding a profit in a live account is hard. I am eager to cash out and re-enter or feel like the wind is changing direction everyday. In a demo account, there is no problem at all. I can totally forget that I have a position.

I demo for a year and turned 10k to 40k, only by a few trades. Now I am trading a live account and found myself busy selling and buying. I believe it is just more trading activities and less profit. Fear and greed is involved in losing and winning.

On the other hand, it would be boring as hell if you only trades 2 times a year. In the demo account, I only bought G/J twice and AUDUSD once.
  • #25,965
  • Edited 7:59pm Jan 26, 2013 7:44pm | Edited 7:59pm
personally gonna short her at the resistant better than short her at the support...

waiting for her at the resistant
Quoting DaddyBear
One more reason I think the red trend line will not break is based on my INDI X. I have noticed when it is away from Bollinger middle line, it will move back toward that line. Once it turns back up, the PA will be up as well.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1359249991


don'care which one come first ... bull and bear makes money... and yummy.. time will tell.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au eh.gif Size: 31 KB
not euphoria follower
  • #25,966
  • Jan 26, 2013 7:46pm Jan 26, 2013 7:46pm
Quoting DaddyBear
I'd say the red trend line is more reliable than the blue one.
The redline could be misleading too if you are buying into it and then the price drops.
  • #25,967
  • Jan 26, 2013 7:56pm Jan 26, 2013 7:56pm
Quoting DaddyBear
My chart indicates the close of the candle was above the trend line.
can you post this in H4 also ? and what does the weekly look like here?
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #25,968
  • Jan 26, 2013 8:02pm Jan 26, 2013 8:02pm
my weekly totally bearish with some support in h4 (http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=1124484&d=1359251878)

how is yours DB ?

rgds,
no straight line



Quoting forexalien
can you post this in H4 also ? and what does the weekly look like here?
not euphoria follower
  • #25,969
  • Jan 26, 2013 8:05pm Jan 26, 2013 8:05pm
Quoting mry2001
The redline could be misleading too if you are buying into it and then the price drops.
Although there is a probability it will drop at Sunday open, I did not get the rationale behind your message.
daddybearforex. com
  • #25,970
  • Jan 26, 2013 8:37pm Jan 26, 2013 8:37pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Although there is a probability it will drop at Sunday open, I did not get the rationale behind your message.
Trendline are subjective. Both bulls or bears can draw lines on the same charts and feel comfortable with their positions.

I believe that horizontal lines are more relaible because there are no angles... Me too watching the price evryday, including sundays. I am starting to feel it is not necessary.
  • #25,971
  • Jan 26, 2013 8:41pm Jan 26, 2013 8:41pm
I agree trend lines are subjective and sometimes misleading. There are some other factors to take into considerations other than trend lines.

Quoting mry2001
Trendline are subjective. Both bulls or bears can draw lines on the same charts and feel comfortable with their positions.

I believe that horizontal lines are more relaible because there are no angles... Me too watching the price evryday, including sundays. I am starting to feel it is not necessary.
daddybearforex. com
  • #25,972
  • Jan 26, 2013 8:44pm Jan 26, 2013 8:44pm
My H4 has not shown the bottom yet. This does not mean the red trend line is going to break. Contrary to this, it is near the bottom IMO. However, a retest of the Friday low is likely.

Quoting iqyu5an
my weekly totally bearish with some support in h4 (http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=1124484&d=1359251878)

how is yours DB ?

rgds,
no straight line
daddybearforex. com
  • #25,973
  • Jan 26, 2013 8:49pm Jan 26, 2013 8:49pm
If I was making 55k a year forgetting about the trade I can do boring
Quoting mry2001
Holding a profit in a live account is hard. I am eager to cash out and re-enter or feel like the wind is changing direction everyday. In a demo account, there is no problem at all. I can totally forget that I have a position.

I demo for a year and turned 10k to 40k, only by a few trades. Now I am trading a live account and found myself busy selling and buying. I believe it is just more trading activities and less profit. Fear and greed is involved in losing and winning.

On the other hand, it would be boring as hell if you only...
  • #25,974
  • Jan 26, 2013 8:56pm Jan 26, 2013 8:56pm
Quoting forexalien
can you post this in H4 also ? and what does the weekly look like here?
No H4 on this platform. Weekly is below.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: INDIX-012513-W.JPG Size: 155 KB
daddybearforex. com
  • #25,975
  • Jan 26, 2013 9:31pm Jan 26, 2013 9:31pm
overall, market is still under controlled by bear. but by looking lower time frame ( say..15,30 and h1 ) it seems making divergence..( bottom not clear yet aniway ) to do some correction/ and retest prev resistant area first before further another bearish movement.

if not clear yet.. better ( for me ) to wait till clear pattern and price action say to say GO




Quoting DaddyBear
My H4 has not shown the bottom yet. This does not mean the red trend line is going to break. Contrary to this, it is near the bottom IMO. However, a retest of the Friday low is likely.
not euphoria follower
  • #25,976
  • Jan 26, 2013 11:21pm Jan 26, 2013 11:21pm
Quoting DaddyBear
My H4 has not shown the bottom yet. This does not mean the red trend line is going to break. Contrary to this, it is near the bottom IMO. However, a retest of the Friday low is likely.
Yes, my friend, I would assume we would need a retest. What concerns is me is the potential break of the tl and the fact we took out 61.8 retracement of the move from 1.0357. To me, that implies a high likelihood of a 100% retracement. When I filter out the noise, the tl appears broken.
Looks like 1.039 could provide a bounce, and perhaps that will do it. 30 pips is pretty close on such a big move and depends upon how you count it.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #25,977
  • Jan 27, 2013 12:12am Jan 27, 2013 12:12am
Everything is possible at this point but there will be only one scenario in the end. In regard to to the Fibonacci retracement, between 61.80% and 100%, 76.40% and 88.4% are possible points of return as well.

Quoting Mr. Scott
Yes, my friend, I would assume we would need a retest. What concerns is me is the potential break of the tl and the fact we took out 61.8 retracement of the move from 1.0357. To me, that implies a high likelihood of a 100% retracement. When I filter out the noise, the tl appears broken.
Looks like 1.039 could provide a bounce, and perhaps that will do it. 30 pips is pretty close on such a big move and depends upon how you count it.
daddybearforex. com
  • #25,978
  • Jan 27, 2013 1:16am Jan 27, 2013 1:16am
Between the demo and live tradings, there is one way to trade in a risk controlled setting. It is bull spread trade. A floor and a ceiling were set. This would remove the fear and the greed to some degree.

To find out more information, click on the link below.
https://www.nadex.com/learn-to-trade/bull-spreads.html
daddybearforex. com
  • #25,979
  • Jan 27, 2013 1:27am Jan 27, 2013 1:27am
An alternative way to trade the news is binary option trade. The R/R is higher than any possible spot setups.

https://www.nadex.com/learn-to-trade/binary-options.html
daddybearforex. com
  • #25,980
  • Jan 27, 2013 1:31am Jan 27, 2013 1:31am
Quoting DaddyBear
An alternative way to trade the news is binary option trade. The R/R is higher than any possible spot setups.

https://www.nadex.com/learn-to-trade/binary-options.html
I had couple successful trades last year. Each one I made 2,400% return in a few hours. No spot trading can make such a return in any way.
daddybearforex. com
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