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  • #129,341
  • Jan 24, 2013 3:42am Jan 24, 2013 3:42am
Quoting lumesh
May i kindly ask where do you get that information to back your arguments ?

thanks
will try to get you the source.. I saw few days ago..

but here is something similar...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: c1.PNG Size: 34 KB
  • #129,342
  • Jan 24, 2013 4:30am Jan 24, 2013 4:30am
Quoting Piters
Mate, it is only a beginning..

Last 10days, over 40Bln were poring into the equities additionally.. alone.. and we saw results,, Earnings are nice .. Momentum is UP.. Equities breaking up higher.. all across.. very likely followed by commodities too..

APPL is decoupling from Nasdaq, and all other indices..

Correction ? Yes..but not anytime near..

Cheers
Well call it semantics if you want. I see a pullback (not a correction) before continuation higher. We need some extra FA or TA (actually both) fuel before breaking all time highs, I personally think that breaking to all time highs is almost unavoidable with the current macro numbers and circumstances...the question is only about timing.

We are in +125% (S&P) non stop uptrend since the bottom. I think the hard part is done (changing the mid term trend). TA wise we need a breather so lets allow conservative long term money jump in at the highs and make a pullback so the shorter term bastards can load cheaper. In a nutshell 1480.xx (S&P for reference) is the only level to track for the M and W rolls. Fading the +/-1500.xx to at least 1440 (max extension to 137x) looks healthier TA wise.

I am not buying at highs (swing wise) in equities without a clean break of all time highs or that pullback I am mentioning, but definitively not loading for the next leg up (long-mid term) will be a shame ...meanwhile actively tracking individual stocks, ETFs and sector trackers to load mid/long term ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #129,343
  • Jan 24, 2013 4:56am Jan 24, 2013 4:56am
Quoting sisse
Well call it semantics if you want. I see a pullback (not a correction) before continuation higher. We need some extra FA or TA (actually both) fuel before breaking all time highs, I personally think that breaking to all time highs is almost unavoidable with the current macro numbers and circumstances...the question is only about timing.

We are in +125% (S&P) non stop uptrend since the bottom. I think the hard part is done (changing the mid term trend). TA wise we need a breather so[b] lets allow conservative long term money jump in at the highs...
We'll see mate.. Im just saying.. so far with those 40bln/m shots.. and TA wise.. Im not seeing any weakness in equities., [so far.. ]
Looks like legit breakout.. supported with Momentum

not sure on correction at this stage.., but if come, I agree with you - it would be shame not to enter.. as this year looks like a Green Train..
  • #129,344
  • Jan 24, 2013 5:53am Jan 24, 2013 5:53am
Quoting Gleneagles
cowardly and sneaky breakout during Asian session when i am sleeping and on long weekend


Barstarts 1 Me 0
[size=3][size=2]
11828 intraday swing level now
[size=3][font=Arial Black][font=Arial Narrow]
will plan revenge over a few beers during the weekend
[FONT=Arial...
i woke up at 2:00am to no internet or cable TV. called them and the recording said there was an outage in my area and they expected to have it up and running by 6:00am. it is now almost 7:00 and they finally got it fixed ... bastards indeed~!!!
  • #129,345
  • Jan 24, 2013 5:55am Jan 24, 2013 5:55am
Quoting Piters
will try to get you the source.. I saw few days ago..

but here is something similar...

Aa okay, you were talking about the QE. Or where you ?


Cause you said "...in the last 10 days..."


Anyways, QE alone cannot make the market run forever, IMO. Especially because the money isn't really in the economy.
  • #129,346
  • Jan 24, 2013 6:00am Jan 24, 2013 6:00am
Quoting Piters
We'll see mate.. Im just saying.. so far with those 40bln/m shots.. and TA wise.. Im not seeing any weakness in equities., [so far.. ]
Looks like legit breakout.. supported with Momentum

not sure on correction at this stage.., but if come, I agree with you - it would be shame not to enter.. as this year looks like a Green Train..

IMO, the indexes should correct AHEAD of the previous high, then make a strong push into new highs and then fade fade fade to eventually cause a minor panic
  • #129,347
  • Jan 24, 2013 6:02am Jan 24, 2013 6:02am
Quoting lumesh
Aa okay, you were talking about the QE. Or where you ?


Cause you said "...in the last 10 days..."


Anyways, QE alone cannot make the market run forever, IMO. Especially because the money isn't really in the economy.
where is it ???
  • #129,348
  • Edited 6:35am Jan 24, 2013 6:12am | Edited 6:35am
Quoting lumesh
Aa okay, you were talking about the QE. Or where you ?


Cause you said "...in the last 10 days..."


Anyways, QE alone cannot make the market run forever, IMO. Especially because the money isn't really in the economy.


I was referring to breakout.. and drive behind..

40bl are still money, pumping every month.................... or are they ??

anyway.. mate.. I wish you a VERY Good Luck..
  • #129,349
  • Jan 24, 2013 6:52am Jan 24, 2013 6:52am
Quoting Piters
We'll see mate.. Im just saying.. so far with those 40bln/m shots.. and TA wise.. Im not seeing any weakness in equities., [so far.. ]
Looks like legit breakout.. supported with Momentum

not sure on correction at this stage.., but if come, I agree with you - it would be shame not to enter.. as this year looks like a Green Train..


Sorry Piters, where is the momentum? I mean pure momentum and volume wise......


Look here at Awesome Oscillator: bearish divergences on weekly chart (monthly as well); volume drying up.........

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sp500 mm.jpg Size: 146 KB



Optimisms all over the field at it's best, with Mom and Dad pumping again their retirement pennies in the casino called Wall Street. Politicans all over the world eager to slap at their backs (the crisis is done!). VIX at historical low values - complacency is back. People dreaming about cheap USD, Gold to the moon, Dow at 20.000 and so on. Junk bonds of soon to be broke Spain at very low levels, as well as Italian bonds. All is good in good old Europe. First it was in the first place Apple that drag the NASDAQ up, now people believe that the fall of Apple will have no effect (declining) on the stock exchange - hilarious...... (now at 467 USD).
We saw several days stock indices closing solidly up, but the internal measurements were negative (with more stocks down than up, and more down volume than up volume). How long can such a situation sustain?

Look at the yield curve of the 30years T-Bonds. We have seen a finished impulse up so far. Meaning is: either change of trend or at least one more impulsive move to the upper side. What will they do against rising yields? When the FED announced on the 12th of Dec to purchase new bonds with a rate of 45 Bill. per month the yield curve simply ignored that fact and went on rising. What can they do towards social mood? What was Japan able to do towards bad social mood over the last 2-3 decades? Nothing seems to be the right answer........

EW wise (in the stock markets) this fits all for the end of a wave 5, the end of a wave 2, or the end of a wave B of an ABC-flat.

Most likely in SP500 we are in an ending diagonal of a complex correction. This correction has been so long dragged out, no one in the EW-world thought it would happen. But that happened, because of the monetary policies of the central banks. The majority part of this ralley was missed by Mom and Dad. Now they are inn and you can bet that the banks have unloaded parts of their holdings (you know: for every buyer there is a seller, with the last one holding the bag).


Take care my friend- stormy times ahead (or me badly wrong )
  • #129,350
  • Jan 24, 2013 6:58am Jan 24, 2013 6:58am
Quoting darimik
where is it ???


It is mostly IOU's

without companies and you and me asking banks for credit, it stays just as IOU's in the books of the banks

but on the other side banks have been more than reluctant over the last years to give such credits out.......


that is bad social mood......
  • #129,351
  • Jan 24, 2013 7:05am Jan 24, 2013 7:05am
Quoting Piters
We'll see mate.. Im just saying.. so far with those 40bln/m shots.. and TA wise.. Im not seeing any weakness in equities., [so far.. ]
Looks like legit breakout.. supported with Momentum

not sure on correction at this stage.., but if come, I agree with you - it would be shame not to enter.. as this year looks like a Green Train..


I think, when I remember correctly, that it was mainly BA proclaiming, that we saw such huge inflows into stock markets.

But when I remember correctly, zerohedge rebutted that a week or two ago with a statement, that there was indeed only little inflow


Yep, found them all:



In Historic Anti-Equity Revulsion, Fidelity Now Manages More In Bonds And Money Markets Than Stocks

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-0...ey-markets-sto


Following 7 Weeks Of Market Topping Inflows, Retail Once Again Turns Its Back On Dropping Stocks With $3.1 Billion Outflow

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/fol...ping-stocks-31



So Much For That "Record Inflow" Into Equity Funds - Domestic Equities See $4.2 Billion Outflow In Most Recent Week

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...tflow-most-rec


Is The Largest Weekly Inflow Into Bank Savings Accounts On Record, A Flashing Red Alarm?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-1...hing-red-alarm




Putting The Near-Record Equity Inflow In Context

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...inflow-context
  • #129,352
  • Jan 24, 2013 7:07am Jan 24, 2013 7:07am
Quoting Piters
I was referring to breakout.. and drive behind..

40bl are still money, pumping every month.................... or are they ??

anyway.. mate.. I wish you a VERY Good Luck..

I'm not selling the SP500 if that's what you're referring to ...but thanks anyway..

Thinking of going long the VIX though
  • #129,353
  • Jan 24, 2013 7:07am Jan 24, 2013 7:07am
Quoting Piters
I was referring to breakout.. and drive behind..

40bl are still money, pumping every month.................... or are they ??

anyway.. mate.. I wish you a VERY Good Luck..


How long does it take the FED to posses nearly all of the equities or values worldwide? LOL
  • #129,354
  • Jan 24, 2013 7:13am Jan 24, 2013 7:13am
Quoting infinitus
How long does it take the FED to posses nearly all of the equities or values worldwide? LOL
If QE infinity 2 comes along then...not that long
  • #129,355
  • Jan 24, 2013 7:22am Jan 24, 2013 7:22am
Quoting lumesh
If QE infinity 2 comes along then...not that long


Hand over your piggy bag to the FED, mate!!!


  • #129,356
  • Jan 24, 2013 7:25am Jan 24, 2013 7:25am
LOL LOL LOL


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...arget-1111-888


Just because AAPL longs needed some more salt rubbed in their wounds, here comes Apple's cartooniest analyst who heretofore had the highest price target on AAPL some 140% higher than where it is now, and working at a firm named for a town in Kansas, cutting his fruitish $1,111 price target down to $888.
TOPEKA CAPITAL CUTS PRICE TARGET TO $888 FROM $1111; RATING BUY

So was $666 taken? And does Topeka Capital think having your number key stuck when determining a price target imputes credibility to one's worthless research?
  • #129,357
  • Jan 24, 2013 7:27am Jan 24, 2013 7:27am
Quoting infinitus
Sorry Piters, where is the momentum? I mean pure momentum and volume wise......


Look here at Awesome Oscillator: bearish divergences on weekly chart (monthly as well); volume drying up.........

Attachment


Optimisms all over the field at it's best, with Mom and Dad pumping again their retirement pennies in the casino called Wall Street. Politicans all over the world eager to slap at their backs (the crisis is done!). VIX at historical low values - complacency is back. People dreaming about cheap USD, Gold to the moon, Dow...

Thank you for taking your time to reply mate.. Im not using AO indi, as all are momentum indicators [rsi, stoch, mom..ect] I'm having best results with Momentum, and as a source of all other oscilators.. here it is..

YES, we HAD bearish divergence on weekly, but now that is PAST [VOID].. take a look the chart..

I hope You'll understand my chart.. THe breakout is clear.. and until we develop a new bear DIV.. this is going UP...

[Chart] DJII or $INDI
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: indu.jpg Size: 198 KB
  • #129,358
  • Jan 24, 2013 7:30am Jan 24, 2013 7:30am
bearish continuation on GU after failed 5820 support. strong bearish ichimoku TK cross on H1 from that level. looking at 5750 next
  • #129,359
  • Jan 24, 2013 7:40am Jan 24, 2013 7:40am
Quoting Piters
Thank you for taking your time to reply mate.. Im not using AO indi, as all are momentum indicators [rsi, stoch, mom..ect] I'm having best results with Momentum, and as a source of all other oscilators.. here it is..

YES, we HAD bearish divergence on weekly, but now that is PAST [VOID].. take a look the chart..

I hope You'll understand my chart.. THe breakout i clear.. and until we develop a new bear DIV.. this is going high...

[Chart] DJII or $INDI


Hi Piters,


thanks Mate for responding. I understand perfectly your chart :-) and see what you mean.


I use mainly for judging such long lasting moves the Awesome Oscillator. I think it is the best indicator to show divergences in the waves. It is validated. The indicator deliveres the best results, when you choose that TF for the wave to be examined that results in 120-140 bars/´candles.

You can read here:


http://www.tradingfives.com/articles...oscillator.htm

http://www.esignalcentral.com/univer...Manual_ch7.pdf




When price has moved such a great span (doubeling or more), maybe you may try out the PPO, because it gives better results for such moves:


http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.p...ce_oscillators



Just food for thought
  • #129,360
  • Edited 8:54am Jan 24, 2013 7:58am | Edited 8:54am
KEN !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
you, drunken Bastard ..

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BBCluHMCUAAww0p.png:large
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