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Ramblings of a Forex Junkie

  • #241
  • Jan 23, 2013 6:17pm Jan 23, 2013 6:17pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
For your enjoyment.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-5GUqylf6Pk
A little off topic but because this is your thread I'll let you get it back on track when necessary. Have you seen the other video on this guy that he tried to get pulled? It was about his typical day and I swear the guy was just running on "hunches". I wonder if he wanted it pulled because of how crazy it made him look.
  • #242
  • Jan 23, 2013 7:22pm Jan 23, 2013 7:22pm
Quoting Kanzler
A little off topic but because this is your thread I'll let you get it back on track when necessary. Have you seen the other video on this guy that he tried to get pulled? It was about his typical day and I swear the guy was just running on "hunches". I wonder if he wanted it pulled because of how crazy it made him look.
Yes I have seen it. That crazy guy was Paul Tudor Jones. He was short for the 87 crash and made huge money. Its hard to find but if you can watch it.
  • #243
  • Jan 23, 2013 7:27pm Jan 23, 2013 7:27pm
Found it, enjoy.

http://www.tradeitdontdateit.com/pau...utures-trader/
  • #244
  • Edited 7:31pm Jan 23, 2013 7:29pm | Edited 7:31pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
Found it, enjoy.

http://www.tradeitdontdateit.com/pau...utures-trader/
Yeah that's the one. He did make a ton of money but I can't help but feel that his "method" was no more than luck in that instance. No discussion of risk management, if there was any, just kind of a fly by the seat of your pants style. Shouting, screaming, highly emotional. There are even some guys in that video, who were talking about having people buy them in again at certain points like that's totally normal. I think his attempt to get rid of that production was because any investor who watched it would stay far away from him.
  • #245
  • Jan 23, 2013 9:12pm Jan 23, 2013 9:12pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
Found it, enjoy.

http://www.tradeitdontdateit.com/pau...utures-trader/
Thanks for this, been searching for years! I mate of a mate works for him still and by all accounts he's still the legend...
  • #246
  • Jan 23, 2013 10:06pm Jan 23, 2013 10:06pm
Quoting Hyperion
Thanks for this, been searching for years! I mate of a mate works for him still and by all accounts he's still the legend...
When the video was made he was managing 125 million. His personal worth is around 3.5 billion now. He's done pretty well for himself.
  • #247
  • Jan 24, 2013 2:04am Jan 24, 2013 2:04am
Such traders are unique. It doesn't matter whether it's pure luck or a system plus luck. Anyway a big healthy bit of luck is involved so either way nobody is going to repeat their achievements.
  • #248
  • Jan 24, 2013 11:58am Jan 24, 2013 11:58am
Hello Seneca, thank you for sharing your knowledge with us.
i am sorry if this is a noob question, but i am a little confused with the market hours you are using.. My timezone is GMT London Time. My question is, what time are you using to mark the daily open? Is 8:00 GMT or 7:00 GMT? And the daily close? Is 16:00 GMT or 17:00 GMT? Do you take in consideration New York market hours, or only London market hours? The weekly open you use is when London market open on monday or is midnight GMT? ... if you could enlighten me I would appreciate
  • #249
  • Jan 24, 2013 3:20pm Jan 24, 2013 3:20pm
Quoting Tiago711
Hello Seneca, thank you for sharing your knowledge with us.
i am sorry if this is a noob question, but i am a little confused with the market hours you are using.. My timezone is GMT London Time. My question is, what time are you using to mark the daily open? Is 8:00 GMT or 7:00 GMT? And the daily close? Is 16:00 GMT or 17:00 GMT? Do you take in consideration New York market hours, or only London market hours? The weekly open you use is when London market open on monday or is midnight GMT? ... if you could enlighten me I would appreciate
This info is in the thread. I did a rather complete post on the times I use. You are the one trading your account, you will have to test to find the times you believe in. You will only be able to trade a method in which you have complete trust.

I will try to be helpful when I can but please read the thread before asking questions.
  • #250
  • Jan 24, 2013 4:23pm Jan 24, 2013 4:23pm
Quoting stevexyg
That may be correct, but you can't really put an 'only' in there without qualification. 2% of a multi trillion pound market is actually quite a significant ammount of cash/potential liquidity.
2% of 4 trillion would be 80 Billion and put that into 80 different currencies, (of course the majors would be heavy weighted) but 1 billion per pair......That would be what is traded daily, not the total cash sitting in all the accounts around the world. Now that's mind boggling......
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #251
  • Jan 24, 2013 4:50pm Jan 24, 2013 4:50pm
[quote=Seneca pilot;6384880]
Quoting billytt

My real point with respect to backtesting, and the last thing I will say on it is that you can only know if your method really works if you can SUCCESSFULLY trade it in real time with real money. I don't know how I can say it differently. Its not that I don't go back and look at charts to develop and validate ideas. I simply don't really trust a method until it has made real cash. Adjusting a method to backtesting results is dangerous and can result in faulty assumptions about forward success.
Everyone talks about you have to back test, back test , back test.......And if you don't know any different, that is where you have to start, to design a system to mimic the PA there.....
From that you can start to see how your system stands up to the live bars coming across your chart......
You now have that chance to start tweaking your system to further mimic the price action.....
When you your tweaked system to where you have learned it well, then that is the time to start the real forward testing with a micro, then a mini, then onto the bigger stuff......
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #252
  • Jan 24, 2013 5:04pm Jan 24, 2013 5:04pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
I have found that the benefit to maintaining this thread is not worth the time commitment (there is really no benefit). It seems that there are very few questions and little discussion. I don't have anything to offer but hard work so I guess not many are interested. I will check by and answer questions if there are any and I may post from time to time if I have a thought to add.
Just go with the ebb and flow in your life to post here. This post was mainly for you to talk out verbally so you can hear yourself thinking.
Others can join in at will, or just be lurkers........
This Forum helps both you and the people who read it....
All it has to do is inspire yourself or someone like myself.......
I have found it helpful in doing something like this, or I have started calling out trades in live trading rooms others have , or posting trade directions in other forums.....
Being proactive, in one way, shape or form, is the only way to train your brain to educate it, for trading........
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #253
  • Jan 24, 2013 5:14pm Jan 24, 2013 5:14pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
Thank you for the thoughts. It isn't that I am upset or anything like that. I have more thoughts to put down I just don't think I will post as often. Again, if you have any questions ask them here I will keep a check on the thread.

I guess I am just concerned for the readers. Yesterday two different posters came here and posted trade calls on GU which did not adhere to the concepts in this thread. I am concerned that people could follow others calls and lose money. I don't want the thread to degenerate to the same BS you read here every day....
Good luck is the byproduct of hard work..............It is not the charts....nor the indicators......It is deep from within.........."Alien"
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #254
  • Jan 24, 2013 6:25pm Jan 24, 2013 6:25pm
Quoting Kanzler
Yeah that's the one. He did make a ton of money but I can't help but feel that his "method" was no more than luck in that instance. No discussion of risk management, if there was any, just kind of a fly by the seat of your pants style. Shouting, screaming, highly emotional. There are even some guys in that video, who were talking about having people buy them in again at certain points like that's totally normal. I think his attempt to get rid of that production was because any investor who watched it would stay far away from him.
Having just watched all of it I'd have to say I saw it rather differently. Yes he's shouting down the phone a lot but when he comes off the phone he's calm and considered. The shouting is just to mimic what's going on on the trading floor so that over the phone he has the required impact and sense of urgency that his clerks respond to.

And I don't think it's unplanned reactionary trading either. You see how he builds a position with various buys including a sale to confuse the market - he is very strategic in his execution. And we don't really see all the work he must be doing behind the scenes. All we are seeing here is his morning calls to sound out the market and a bit of elliot wave theory with his partner but before and after his trading he clearly has potential positions on his mind most of the time and with his early morning work from home he probably researches the news and sets up his plans for the day.

Yes there is a deal of emotion there when a position goes bad but that's after the loss has been taken so it's not 'live' emotion that would effect his trading decisions. And it is understandable considering it was a rare 5% draw down on a large account. The rest of the time what you see I think is largely stress. As he says a number of times he doesn't look at it via the money aspect, for him it's about being proved to have had an accurate analysis of the market. It's about the reassurance of being right with his decisions. This reassurance allows him to relax and sleep well. That's a strange set up psychologically and not one I'd mimic but it seems that he deliberately places himself under stress when he is wrong so that he has more motivation to be right because only then can he sleep at night.

I'd be interested in anyone sees it differently, we probably all see things differently, that's one thing that makes a market!

One key thing we also see in this very interesting docu is his snacking on healthy food, banana and orange juice and his gym work. Healthy body healthy mind.
  • #255
  • Jan 24, 2013 6:36pm Jan 24, 2013 6:36pm
With no real time quotes or charts and not being on the floor you HAD to yell down the phone because fo the shear volume of noise coming back at you down the line. I know he is one of the best ever and best of all his Robin Hood Foundation is a great touch.
  • #256
  • Jan 24, 2013 6:43pm Jan 24, 2013 6:43pm
I guess to had to have conviction in your trades back then
  • #257
  • Jan 24, 2013 8:36pm Jan 24, 2013 8:36pm
Quoting Hyperion
With no real time quotes or charts and not being on the floor you HAD to yell down the phone because fo the shear volume of noise coming back at you down the line. I know he is one of the best ever and best of all his Robin Hood Foundation is a great touch.
Yes back then they traded with quote machines and only produced charts end of day. In all of those old videos you only ever see quotes on the screens of the traders when you get a look at their screens. They don't have charts just quotes. I remember in one of the Wizards books one of the traders said he went into the pit each day with a sheet from a note pad with the High Low and close from the privious day and traded off those prices along with the opening of the current day. You don't need charts to trade, only prices. It was done that way for decades.
  • #258
  • Jan 25, 2013 5:00am Jan 25, 2013 5:00am
[quote=Tiago711;6391635]Hello Seneca, thank you for sharing your knowledge with us.
i am sorry if this is a noob question, but i am a little confused with the market hours you are using.. My timezone is GMT London Time.

some people are not very good teachers, every time zone has its own merits asian telling a tale of what will happen and london answering then onto us, but it isnt always that easy. Keep studying look at old charts and ask qustions (to the right people) be good
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #259
  • Jan 25, 2013 8:54am Jan 25, 2013 8:54am
Bye bye Billy, if you don't like the way I teach move on.
  • #260
  • Jan 25, 2013 9:22am Jan 25, 2013 9:22am
Hello everyone.

I am attaching a couple of charts. Earlier in the thread I noted that often our entries will be very near the high or low of the day. This morning was a great example of this. I was rather tired as I am still going through the process of buying my new house and am packing our current house for the move. I only entered EU today but the trade was 3R. Draw down was four pips. Once the trade was set I went to sleep. Nice to wake up to a 6% gain. EJ and GJ also were great trades. GU was the only tough one today. I have eliminated all the lines from my charts except for the daily open. Again this is my open time US Eastern. (not sure I can be any clearer on this).

Notice on EU it opened then traded up a little. Once I had some separation and a couple of complete bars above the open it was just a matter of waiting for the retrace to enter. This is all I need to be looking long. Remember I am not forecasting, I am trading the first entry that is given. If price had gone up and hit the previous day high I would have gone short first, right or wrong. I still wish I could hold these a little longer, especially since we had finally broken away from the weekly levels yesterday. I am pretty happy with 3R though.

For someone who is awake and able to trail entries well these three trades could have produced as much as maybe 12 or 15 R. I have a tendency to enter set the stop and target and go to sleep. These trades come at one or two o'clock for me and staying up through the night is pretty much impossible. I may never be able to get the maximum from my trading unless I move to a better time zone. Perhaps asia would be a good place for me, my wife is half Japanese.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: today entry eu.jpg Size: 65 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: today entry ej.jpg Size: 64 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: today entry gj.jpg Size: 66 KB
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