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  • #25,381
  • Jan 22, 2013 1:38pm Jan 22, 2013 1:38pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Could you clarify your retest and pb? No the meanings but the PA.
Sorry thought you could read my mind. Looking at hourly and 4h, looks like it wants to retest the high today.

Strong 1h candle now, and nice looking 4h candle.

Seems a little too far, too fast, so doubt it has the ability to break out today, looking at similar daily moves in the past, odds favor a significant pb.

Could be wrong and it breaks out here, but does not seem likely yet. Probability would favor a pb here.

If anything, probability would favor a short with sl above high. Who knows? Important data tonight, and charts to me, are indecisive.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #25,382
  • Jan 22, 2013 2:02pm Jan 22, 2013 2:02pm
For bears. The highest volume on the hourly chart seen since almost 2 weeks ago occurred today on a down bar which closed on it's lows. This is /6A which is reliable volume. Could just be profit taking but may be an early clue of selling pressure.
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  • #25,383
  • Jan 22, 2013 2:23pm Jan 22, 2013 2:23pm
Thanks for the clarifications.

Because there are only two waves in H1. The minimum is 3 waves. Regardless of which way it goes in the end, a third wave is expected IMO.


Quoting Mr. Scott
Sorry thought you could read my mind. Looking at hourly and 4h, looks like it wants to retest the high today.

Strong 1h candle now, and nice looking 4h candle.

Seems a little too far, too fast, so doubt it has the ability to break out today, looking at similar daily moves in the past, odds favor a significant pb.

Could be wrong and it breaks out here, but does not seem likely yet. Probability would favor a pb here.

If anything, probability would favor a short with sl above high. Who knows? Important data tonight, and charts to me, are...
daddybearforex. com
  • #25,384
  • Jan 22, 2013 2:24pm Jan 22, 2013 2:24pm
Good morning!
I'm shorting Aussie today.
  • #25,385
  • Edited 2:43pm Jan 22, 2013 2:27pm | Edited 2:43pm
Quoting Arman_A
Good morning!
I'm shorting Aussie today.
How many retailers shorting does it take to get to the center of the Aussie pop? haha

http://shop.tootsie.com/img/product/chr-tprberry.jpg
  • #25,386
  • Jan 22, 2013 3:55pm Jan 22, 2013 3:55pm
There was a point earlier today.......where I thought hmm, I could take profit on my aussie position now, buy the dip on EUR with a tight stop loss and ride it up.

I kind of regret not taking that decision....I would have been 40 pips richer on Euro, and well, I would have lost 20 on aussie so maybe net only 30ish.....but still....
  • #25,387
  • Jan 22, 2013 4:26pm Jan 22, 2013 4:26pm
Quoting lolygagv2
There was a point earlier today.......where I thought hmm, I could take profit on my aussie position now, buy the dip on EUR with a tight stop loss and ride it up.

I kind of regret not taking that decision....I would have been 40 pips richer on Euro, and well, I would have lost 20 on aussie so maybe net only 30ish.....but still....
there is always next time loly
  • #25,388
  • Jan 22, 2013 4:27pm Jan 22, 2013 4:27pm
7:30pm AUD
CPI q/q

0.4% 1.4%
Previous: 1.4% and Forecast: 0.4%

These numbers Make me wonder why there is a 1% drop.
daddybearforex. com
  • #25,389
  • Jan 22, 2013 4:32pm Jan 22, 2013 4:32pm
http://fx2.it-finance.com/FXStreetFl...f46daaf75f.png
  • #25,390
  • Jan 22, 2013 4:42pm Jan 22, 2013 4:42pm
Quoting DaddyBear
7:30pm AUD
CPI q/q

0.4% 1.4%
Previous: 1.4% and Forecast: 0.4%

These numbers Make me wonder why there is a 1% drop.
The ABS today releases CPI data for the December quarter at 11.30am. A Bloomberg survey expects the inflation rate to have risen to 2.4 per cent cent over the year, up from 2.0 per cent, but the quarterly rate is expected to have fallen to 0.4 per cent, down from 1.4 per cent during the three months to the end of September.


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/asx-set-for-flat-start-ahead-of-cpi-20130123-2d5ts.html#ixzz2IkNHNnOT

  • #25,391
  • Jan 22, 2013 4:46pm Jan 22, 2013 4:46pm
The dollar
The Australian dollar is higher, after Japan’s central bank announced an expansion of its monetary stimulus plans. At 7am AEDT, the Australian dollar was at 105.65 US cents, up from Tuesday’s close of 105.55 cents.


BK Asset Management managing director Kathy Lien said news from the Bank of Japan’s meeting on Tuesday had boosted the Australian dollar.


‘‘The currency has held onto its gains over the past 24 hours,’’ she said. ‘‘Its performance has been quite incredible, considering the euro currency is relatively unchanged, and the Aussie-yen cross has fallen quite a bit.‘‘I think it could be tied to a strong response in US equities.’’
Australian inflation numbers, due for release on Wednesday, would be the next event of importance for the Australian market, Ms Lien said.
‘‘There’s a real possibility that CPI (consumer price index) data will come in below the forecast,’’ she said.‘‘If that happens, it could re-ignite concerns about another rate cut.’’


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/asx-set-for-flat-start-ahead-of-cpi-20130123-2d5ts.html#ixzz2IkNxkRuR

  • #25,392
  • Jan 22, 2013 4:46pm Jan 22, 2013 4:46pm
if CPI is in line with forecast, will AUD rally??

Quoting HelloOz
The dollar
The Australian dollar is higher, after Japan’s central bank announced an expansion of its monetary stimulus plans. At 7am AEDT, the Australian dollar was at 105.65 US cents, up from Tuesday’s close of 105.55 cents.


BK Asset Management managing director Kathy Lien said news from the Bank of Japan’s meeting on Tuesday had boosted the Australian dollar.


‘‘The currency has held onto its gains over the past 24 hours,’’ she said. ‘‘Its performance has been quite incredible, considering the euro...
  • #25,393
  • Jan 22, 2013 4:47pm Jan 22, 2013 4:47pm
DB going by graig james at commsec on tv this morning I under stood that .4% is the expected rise since last time Hey I have been wrong before
Quoting DaddyBear
7:30pm AUD
CPI q/q

0.4% 1.4%
Previous: 1.4% and Forecast: 0.4%

These numbers Make me wonder why there is a 1% drop.
  • #25,394
  • Jan 22, 2013 4:55pm Jan 22, 2013 4:55pm
Quoting arcticwolf
DB going by graig james at commsec on tv this morning I under stood that .4% is the expected rise since last time Hey I have been wrong before
to meet y/y target ?
  • #25,395
  • Jan 22, 2013 4:59pm Jan 22, 2013 4:59pm
Wtf is happening with the aussie now ?
  • #25,396
  • Jan 22, 2013 5:07pm Jan 22, 2013 5:07pm
Quoting arcticwolf
Wtf is happening with the aussie now ?
i wouldnt be here if i have the answer.
  • #25,397
  • Jan 22, 2013 5:50pm Jan 22, 2013 5:50pm
Quoting HelloOz
The dollar
The Australian dollar is higher, after Japan’s central bank announced an expansion of its monetary stimulus plans. At 7am AEDT, the Australian dollar was at 105.65 US cents, up from Tuesday’s close of 105.55 cents.


BK Asset Management managing director Kathy Lien said news from the Bank of Japan’s meeting on Tuesday had boosted the Australian dollar.


‘‘The currency has held onto its gains over the past 24 hours,’’ she said. ‘‘Its performance has been quite incredible, considering the euro...
This statement does not make sense. Low CPI means low inflation. Why would RBA cut rate?
daddybearforex. com
  • #25,398
  • Jan 22, 2013 5:50pm Jan 22, 2013 5:50pm
where is everyone?

i've noticed that the forum is always quite when AUD is up.. why??
  • #25,399
  • Jan 22, 2013 5:51pm Jan 22, 2013 5:51pm
Quoting HelloOz
where is everyone?

i've noticed that the forum is always quite when AUD is up.. why??
Not always.
daddybearforex. com
  • #25,400
  • Jan 22, 2013 5:54pm Jan 22, 2013 5:54pm
Quoting HelloOz
if CPI is in line with forecast, will AUD rally??
0.4% is pretty low. The chance of a higher reading is possible. IMO
daddybearforex. com
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