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  • #4,901
  • Jan 21, 2013 4:03am Jan 21, 2013 4:03am
ok marked out this cz what does everyone think?
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  • #4,902
  • Jan 21, 2013 5:39am Jan 21, 2013 5:39am
Quoting fexitrade
ok marked out this cz what does everyone think?
To me it looks like a perfect box.
I trade 30 minutes time frame and attached is my chart from the same time.
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  • #4,903
  • Jan 21, 2013 7:55am Jan 21, 2013 7:55am
yeah just getting a feel for making the cz zones. greg what do you thınk of US JP at the moment looks like a cz is being formed
  • #4,904
  • Jan 21, 2013 9:10am Jan 21, 2013 9:10am
Quoting fexitrade
yeah just getting a feel for making the cz zones. greg what do you thınk of US JP at the moment looks like a cz is being formed
I use 30 minutes time frame and I don't see a good zone there now. The zone in M15 is not good enough in my opinion. Often, it is better to wait for a more obvious cz zone.
  • #4,905
  • Jan 21, 2013 3:40pm Jan 21, 2013 3:40pm
Ok here is the latest update on my quest to becoming a profitable forex trader. The good news is I have had iron discipline the last trades and I have clearly stayed away from the PC after placing my TP & SL. I have been taking signals that are 70+% winners using a 1:1 RR. I have hundreds of trials which these stats are based on. Yet the last four trades went all in the red. Of course while I was out during the day I missed 2 winning signals. its just hard to believe that I was up in profit and now I am at approx -20% of my account. (I am trading small so the financial loss has absolutely no meaning)
i have read the thread, I have spent time looking at various settings on the indi and have found settings that produce a very solid win rate over hundreds of trials. I have the most conservative settings: no re-entries, no martingaling etc
IF this signal has in the past been winning lets say 70% how can I now be losing money??? 70% losing four trades in a row would be 0.3*0.3*0.3*0.3 which is less than 1% chance. I am not going to change a single setting from now until the end, if this account goes busto then thats fine I am done. This means I have to lose 12 more times with over 70% lets see if its possible. I look for no help anymore i received all the help I needed. And I do indeed have signals that produce 70+% winners over hundreds of trials, the only thing left to do is to miss as little signals as possible and hope for the best...
  • #4,906
  • Jan 21, 2013 4:14pm Jan 21, 2013 4:14pm
Quoting Forex_Fox
Ok here is the latest update on my quest to becoming a profitable forex trader. The good news is I have had iron discipline the last trades and I have clearly stayed away from the PC after placing my TP & SL. I have been taking signals that are 70+% winners using a 1:1 RR. I have hundreds of trials which these stats are based on. Yet the last four trades went all in the red. Of course while I was out during the day I missed 2 winning signals. its just hard to believe that I was up in profit and now I am at approx -20% of my account. (I am trading...
Hi,

I had the same question and found this answers for me (do what you want for you):

- First the market does what it wants and now Bank Of Japan (new government) shakes the currencies by buying or selling as a monetary policy. That can make the market different now for some weeks, even years...

- Second, let's say the very long term success is 60% and you tune your parameters to have 75% success for 100 days. What does it mean ? It means that you probably will have for the next days (75% + X%) = 60%. So X% is more likely to be 50%...
So an idea is to have 75% success but to start only after few last trades show 50% so that on a long term basis you don't catch these bad ones first at least.

But the beginning of this year is not a very good time for SSBO, for sure: december 2012 was an exceptionnaly successfull month.
  • #4,907
  • Jan 21, 2013 6:28pm Jan 21, 2013 6:28pm
Quoting fx_forever
Hi,

I had the same question and found this answers for me (do what you want for you):

- First the market does what it wants and now Bank Of Japan (new government) shakes the currencies by buying or selling as a monetary policy. That can make the market different now for some weeks, even years...

- Second, let's say the very long term success is 60% and you tune your parameters to have 75% success for 100 days. What does it mean ? It means that you probably will have for the next days (75% + X%) = 60%. So X% is more likely to be 50%...
So an...
You are making poor assumptions with this concept. The market could continue for another six months with losing trades - your mean reversion assumption does not necessarily follow that it will occur after a "few loses" - or a few wins for that matter.

Guys you must understand that when you build a system using the SSBO tool (or any other system) that you need to trade EVERY trade as they occur to achieve the stats result that the indicator is showing over the long term (although spread is not currently calculated into the results). Failure to do so means you are NOT trading the exact specifics for the trading system you have designed. Missing a trade here and there (be it due to work commitments or fear of entry) means you are immediately not trading to the systems stats. And who knows what results you will end up with after a year of picking and choosing your trades. Now we all miss trades - so we will get different results to the system analysis, but the less trades you miss - the closer you will get to the actual system result over the longer trading period.

You are also not trading your system when you do things like move your SL to BE after 15pips - this is not what is occurring with the trading system each time it takes a trade with SSBO- so again you are trading something other than your system and the results will be different. DON'T mess with the trades! (Unless of course you go over all the basktest period and look at each trade and rework out the win/ loss rate and profitability if you did move your SL to BE after 15pips - then you know whether this is an advantage or not to incorporate into your trading system - and you have a new set o stats to compare to in the forward testing - and effectively a new system.)

Losses will occur and we need to trade through them - even when they are many in a row. This is the nature of trading - it will torment your sole UNTIL you learn to manage your risk properly. So trade small until you are confident with the system and that it has proved itself to you over at least three months of forward trading (as FXH has been pushing for). If this three month period looks like a ranging period on the daily chart (where you are more likely to get losses) then do it for another three months to be sure that you know the stats for the system stack up.

So start with a system that you can trade as many of the trades as possible - for example analyze all the trades with a particular setup and see what actual win/ loss result you get in a period that you can trade. For example if you can only trade in the evenings then look at all trades from 6pm to 10pm in your trading time zone. You may only be able to trade on Mondays to Wednesdays - so look at all the trades over these days and assess the actual win loss rate and net pips for this period each week. Analyze through the existing backtest trades then forward test.

But once you decide on your trading plan - stick to it for all the forward testing period!!!!

I hope this helps people think about their trading and that SSBO is just a tool (albeit a brilliant little tool) - and that WE are the traders - with a trading plan!
  • #4,908
  • Jan 21, 2013 9:07pm Jan 21, 2013 9:07pm
Hey Forex Fox, we all hav a rough patch, I'm slightly down for the past week. If theres one thing i cant stress enough is money management. Every experienced trader knows how important it is, it's truly vital. If you dont use one already get hold of a position size calculator like this one http://http://www.earnforex.com/position-size-calculator swap the account % with a sum of money that you are happy to lose. Remember that, every time you place a trade you must be prepared to wave goodbye to that amount of money. If your getting a squeeky bum at your losses then I suggest your risk is to high.
  • #4,909
  • Jan 21, 2013 9:19pm Jan 21, 2013 9:19pm
Right now theres a cz forming on my gbpusd M15 chart it's 40 bars and counting but the indicator wont show it as i'm already in a trade from a previous cz, but I can still spot it, i've drawn a box round it, i always do. It's probably not going to break until the eu fin meeting tomorrow so i cant do anything about it anyway, i'll be patient and wait. It's less than 20 pips tall and 39 bars at the minute. Should be a cracking breakout when it comes.

Anyway, thats not the reason I'm here.... check this screenshot out. eurusd has barely moved today. There are only 8 previous instances in the past 2 years where this pair has moved less than 50 pips in a day so this cz is winding up nicely 24 pips 39 bars on my H1 chart. Theres another cz on my M30 chart 69 bars long. I have no idea and I dont even care if it goes up or down, all I need to know is that there will definately be pips made in the morning and I need to be at my pc to catch the wave.

night all
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  • #4,910
  • Jan 21, 2013 11:21pm Jan 21, 2013 11:21pm
market starting to wake up.....current eurusd
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  • #4,911
  • Jan 22, 2013 12:07am Jan 22, 2013 12:07am
Looks market is going to do something ...... GBP/USD M15 - 22/01/2013 Tokyo Session
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  • #4,912
  • Jan 22, 2013 3:25am Jan 22, 2013 3:25am
E/U This was not a breakout I'd normally trade (it happened in the Asian session), but here's two different settings for demonstration:

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One would be a loser, the other is a winner, yet both SSBO settings are profitable in the long run (100 days back).

(Some serious sh.t is going on with E/U this morning. See those massive M15 bars?)

Quoting Forex_Fox
...the last four trades went all in the red. Of course while I was out during the day I missed 2 winning signals. its just hard to believe that I was up in profit and now I am at approx -20% of my account. (I am trading small so the financial loss has absolutely no meaning)
...I have the most conservative settings: no re-entries, no martingaling etc
...if this account goes busto then thats fine I am done. This means I have to lose 12 more times with over 70% lets see if its possible.
So you'd have to lose 12 times to lose the remaining ~80% of your account? That means you're risking 6-7% on every single trade. That is in no way 'conservative'. Professionals would not risk more than 0.5%–1% on every single trade.
  • #4,913
  • Jan 22, 2013 3:41am Jan 22, 2013 3:41am
Quoting timmy
You are making poor assumptions with this concept. The market could continue for another six months with losing trades - your mean reversion assumption does not necessarily follow that it will occur after a "few loses" - or a few wins for that matter.

Guys you must understand that when you build a system using the SSBO tool (or any other system) that you need to trade EVERY trade as they occur to achieve the stats result that the indicator is showing over the long term (although spread is not currently calculated into the results). Failure...
timmy, you are right.

I assumed all that being followed before my post...

- 100 days forward test
- Small capital and then grow it up when confidence comes

That said, you can enter at a time, after the test period, that had less success than the trial period. After entering, let it run !
And that said too you can understand why the market is different sometimes. That doesn't mean not to trade and let SSBO off, as you said.

The most important thing is to be disciplined: never miss a trade, let SSBO run for ALL days.
  • #4,914
  • Jan 22, 2013 4:02am Jan 22, 2013 4:02am
pa has return to the cz on eur - usd after breaking up and down..... is it still ok to trust this cz or is the market showing hesitation
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  • #4,915
  • Jan 22, 2013 6:48am Jan 22, 2013 6:48am
Hi I am using the forexhard waiting EA trader but i have one problem. The EA also sells or buys at former consolidation zone breakouts. How can I stop this, I only want to use the recent box and not from several hours or days back.
  • #4,916
  • Jan 22, 2013 8:06am Jan 22, 2013 8:06am
It is generally recommended to keep your risk/trade at about 2% maximum (better yet, 1% if possible). Therefore, 4 consecutive losses (which should be highly likely over the many trials a career as a trader will produce) you would only be down about 8% (preferably 4%) at most. Just like the casino, as long as you have a Positive Expectancy over a large number of trials, you will come out ahead given your bankroll doesn't run out first. Good luck, my friend. At 70%, you will find a way to make money if you work hard at it. I'm learning so much here from these guys.
Quoting Forex_Fox
Ok here is the latest update on my quest to becoming a profitable forex trader. The good news is I have had iron discipline the last trades and I have clearly stayed away from the PC after placing my TP & SL. I have been taking signals that are 70+% winners using a 1:1 RR. I have hundreds of trials which these stats are based on. Yet the last four trades went all in the red. Of course while I was out during the day I missed 2 winning signals. its just hard to believe that I was up in profit and now I am at approx -20% of my account. (I am trading...
  • #4,917
  • Jan 22, 2013 2:05pm Jan 22, 2013 2:05pm
Quoting fexitrade
pa has return to the cz on eur - usd after breaking up and down..... is it still ok to trust this cz or is the market showing hesitation
Actually the market is ranging on EURUSD, with unusual lookout like today.

That said, SSBO must be running as usual and, follow the rules as usual too...
  • #4,918
  • Jan 22, 2013 2:27pm Jan 22, 2013 2:27pm
Quoting fx_forever
...That said, SSBO must be running as usual and, follow the rules as usual too...
And that is why I like trading SSBO - no matter what the market does, all you have to do is stick to the system.... nothing else.... it's really so simple! Hang on to your box, don't throw it out because of one or two bad runs, because you might miss out when it goes pip hunting :-)
  • #4,919
  • Jan 22, 2013 2:36pm Jan 22, 2013 2:36pm
... this picture says it all...
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  • #4,920
  • Jan 22, 2013 3:36pm Jan 22, 2013 3:36pm
Quoting fxglider
... this picture says it all...
Nice picture! I tried to get the same one using the same settings as you. But I get a much lower Net Pip (1222.1 pips) I wonder why. Do you use 100 Days Back?
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