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  • #25,361
  • Jan 22, 2013 9:43am Jan 22, 2013 9:43am
Quoting forexalien
Everyone have a great day ! Going out in this -5 F and -30F wind chill today, Stay warm Aussie......
Do you get heavy snow in your area?
daddybearforex. com
  • #25,362
  • Jan 22, 2013 9:43am Jan 22, 2013 9:43am
Quoting NWSTrading
I used to think the same way. In today's market, U.S. fundamentals are used as a general gauge for risk appetite. Bad news for U.S. often results in a "risk off" atmosphere, resulting in money moving out of risk assets and into the USD, which is somehow still looked at as a safe haven.
This makes sense.
daddybearforex. com
  • #25,363
  • Jan 22, 2013 10:57am Jan 22, 2013 10:57am
Quoting DaddyBear
What is going to happen next depends on the retracement. Although previous low stayed above the LTL of the channel, it broke 38.20%. This is a factor can be taken into consideration.
So would you consider 38 to be broken and we need at least 50?

Or would you consider it bullish pb and not broken?

Or simply tbd at this point?

Curious as to your thinking....
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #25,364
  • Jan 22, 2013 11:10am Jan 22, 2013 11:10am
Anyone shorting this? I'd love to, but been burned by shorting the AUD at highs too many times, this pair loves to climb! My best guess is a long entry around 0530. Think it will retrace that far? Anyone still bearish expecting a break of the 0500 support?

Thanks and good luck!
  • #25,365
  • Jan 22, 2013 11:24am Jan 22, 2013 11:24am
Quoting NWSTrading
Anyone shorting this? I'd love to, but been burned by shorting the AUD at highs too many times, this pair loves to climb! My best guess is a long entry around 0530. Think it will retrace that far? Anyone still bearish expecting a break of the 0500 support?

Thanks and good luck!

I am still short and want to see how long this pig will hold at this level. In my view, there is no change to usd bull.

I am also long usdchf.
  • #25,366
  • Jan 22, 2013 11:55am Jan 22, 2013 11:55am
I'm new to currency trading. I bought, but got out too early - around 0.054, even though I had my sights on 0.055. It went much higher though. I have now shorted the same pair thinking it will drop to 0.0545 on this run. We'll see.
  • #25,367
  • Jan 22, 2013 12:26pm Jan 22, 2013 12:26pm
I have 4 shorts on Kiwi all in profit but made a mistake shorting the Aussie.Asians love buying this currency specially when yen gets devaluated.
Pattern that is emerging does not look good for me.
Basically classic ABCD harmonic pattern forming.1.27 fib hitting squarely 60
Basically AB leg =CD extension.Not happy.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.gif Size: 23 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #25,368
  • Jan 22, 2013 12:28pm Jan 22, 2013 12:28pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
So would you consider 38 to be broken and we need at least 50?

Or would you consider it bullish pb and not broken?

Or simply tbd at this point?

Curious as to your thinking....
38.2 % was broken. I see the retracement incomplete. IMO
daddybearforex. com
  • #25,369
  • Jan 22, 2013 12:31pm Jan 22, 2013 12:31pm
Quoting bhollyt
I'm new to currency trading. I bought, but got out too early - around 0.054, even though I had my sights on 0.055. It went much higher though. I have now shorted the same pair thinking it will drop to 0.0545 on this run. We'll see.
Welcome bhollyt. You have done very well. -DB-
daddybearforex. com
  • #25,370
  • Jan 22, 2013 12:32pm Jan 22, 2013 12:32pm
Quoting DaddyBear
38.2 % was broken. I see the retracement incomplete. IMO
Ok thank you for your opinion.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #25,371
  • Jan 22, 2013 12:36pm Jan 22, 2013 12:36pm
Quoting Davit
I have 4 shorts on Kiwi all in profit but made a mistake shorting the Aussie.Asians love buying this currency specially when yen gets devaluated.
Pattern that is emerging does not look good for me.
Basically classic ABCD harmonic pattern forming.1.27 fib hitting squarely 60
Basically AB leg =CD extension.Not happy.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1358879152
Davit, take it easy. It depends on where you shorted. Your Fibonacci retracement might not have the right level of 100%. I'd use 1.0486 instead.
daddybearforex. com
  • #25,372
  • Jan 22, 2013 12:40pm Jan 22, 2013 12:40pm
Also, the level of the bounce off shown in your chart may be premature. I'd say 61.80% is more likely IMO.

Quoting Davit
I have 4 shorts on Kiwi all in profit but made a mistake shorting the Aussie.Asians love buying this currency specially when yen gets devaluated.
Pattern that is emerging does not look good for me.
Basically classic ABCD harmonic pattern forming.1.27 fib hitting squarely 60
Basically AB leg =CD extension.Not happy.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1358879152
daddybearforex. com
  • #25,373
  • Jan 22, 2013 12:43pm Jan 22, 2013 12:43pm
BTW, you were assuming it will continue moving up and came to this conclusion. What if it moves down from here, this Fibonacci retracement will not mean anything in the end. IMO

Quoting Davit
I have 4 shorts on Kiwi all in profit but made a mistake shorting the Aussie.Asians love buying this currency specially when yen gets devaluated.
Pattern that is emerging does not look good for me.
Basically classic ABCD harmonic pattern forming.1.27 fib hitting squarely 60
Basically AB leg =CD extension.Not happy.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1358879152
daddybearforex. com
  • #25,374
  • Jan 22, 2013 1:04pm Jan 22, 2013 1:04pm
Quoting DaddyBear
BTW, you were assuming it will continue moving up and came to this conclusion. What if it moves down from here, this Fibonacci retracement will not mean anything in the end. IMO
I see what you mean by drawing little further down which puts 618 at 52.That will work I hope.If my broker did not charge arm n leg for swap I would not care that much but they charge massive amount that's the reason I hate shorting this pair.
Regards bro
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.gif Size: 29 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #25,375
  • Jan 22, 2013 1:09pm Jan 22, 2013 1:09pm
Quoting Davit
I see what you mean by drawing little further down which puts 618 at 52.That will work I hope.If my broker did not charge arm n leg for swap I would not care that much but they charge massive amount that's the reason I hate shorting this pair.
Regards bro
does this charge take a massive chunk of your profit? or turns your profit to negative?

If no, then I guess if your profit still remains +, its okay
  • #25,376
  • Jan 22, 2013 1:09pm Jan 22, 2013 1:09pm
Quoting DaddyBear
38.2 % was broken. I see the retracement incomplete. IMO
My view now, retest and pb. Would not surprise me looking at this pair to get significant pb of this daily move.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #25,377
  • Jan 22, 2013 1:18pm Jan 22, 2013 1:18pm
Quoting Davit
I see what you mean by drawing little further down which puts 618 at 52.That will work I hope.If my broker did not charge arm n leg for swap I would not care that much but they charge massive amount that's the reason I hate shorting this pair.
Regards bro
For shorting the AUD, if you are concerned about negative swap, you should take a look at futures. /6A trades exactly the same, with no swap. commissions are less, fixed 1 pip spread, you have Globex actual volume data (volume is key) which is not available for fx, and all price quotes are regulated through the CME so you don't have different crazy spikes with different brokers. Lots of brokers are now offering futes and fx all in one account/platform.

Plus you can be long the AUD in fx collecting the swap and hedge by shorting in the futures.
  • #25,378
  • Jan 22, 2013 1:26pm Jan 22, 2013 1:26pm
Quoting Davit
I see what you mean by drawing little further down which puts 618 at 52.That will work I hope.If my broker did not charge arm n leg for swap I would not care that much but they charge massive amount that's the reason I hate shorting this pair.
Regards bro
When looking at the chart alone without any indicators, you can see a congestion area right below 52. In fact 52 held down the bulls for many hours before the run-up.


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1358881487
daddybearforex. com
  • #25,379
  • Jan 22, 2013 1:28pm Jan 22, 2013 1:28pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
My view now, retest and pb. Would not surprise me looking at this pair to get significant pb of this daily move.
Could you clarify your retest and pb? Not the meanings but the PA.
daddybearforex. com
  • #25,380
  • Jan 22, 2013 1:30pm Jan 22, 2013 1:30pm
Quoting NWSTrading
For shorting the AUD, if you are concerned about negative swap, you should take a look at futures. /6A trades exactly the same, with no swap. commissions are less, fixed 1 pip spread, you have Globex actual volume data (volume is key) which is not available for fx, and all price quotes are regulated through the CME so you don't have different crazy spikes with different brokers. Lots of brokers are now offering futes and fx all in one account/platform.

Plus you can be long the AUD in fx collecting the swap and hedge by shorting in the futures.
Thanks for the idea.I will certainly look into it.
Thank you
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
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