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  • #25,201
  • Jan 21, 2013 10:19am Jan 21, 2013 10:19am
Quoting chiknthief
I'm not timing the market in that post - just giving the BIG PICTURE. Not saying we wont rally a little from here first. I do not believe it has enough strength to take out the 10650 area (monthly green line on my chart) due to heavy commercial selling. If you're lucky enough to sell it at 10650 it might be one hell of a great short trade for a trade lasting for at least several months duration. I'm loading up on AUD futures put options for a long term trade. That way I don't have to pay those pesky fees you get on forex everyday and I can sell...
The problems with options is that they have expiration dates. I traded equity options before.

Is there a daytrader limitation on the futures options? I am thinking about getting into that area. How about the liquidity of AUD futures options?
daddybearforex. com
  • #25,202
  • Jan 21, 2013 10:22am Jan 21, 2013 10:22am
Quoting DaddyBear
Which level are you waiting for?
Around 1.0540 - 1.0586 ....(if pa go beyond 1.0600 need reconsider my short)
  • #25,203
  • Jan 21, 2013 10:29am Jan 21, 2013 10:29am
Quoting DaddyBear
The problems with options is that they have expiration dates. I traded equity options before.

Is there a daytrader limitation on the futures options? I am thinking about getting into that area. How about the liquidity of AUD futures options?
I wouldn't attempt day trading options. I trade options long term. If the market goes your way you can just sit on them until they expire and bank the money and only pay half the commission ($12.50). But you can offset at anytime you desire. I usually use a 50% stop (close only) on options. The liquidity is decent as long as you place your order between the bid and ask price,
  • #25,204
  • Jan 21, 2013 10:33am Jan 21, 2013 10:33am
Quoting chiknthief
I wouldn't attempt day trading options. I trade options long term. If the market goes your way you can just sit on them until they expire and bank the money and only pay half the commission ($12.50). But you can offset at anytime you desire. I usually use a 50% stop (close only) on options. The liquidity is decent as long as you place your order between the bid and ask price,

PS. I usually look at options six months out to give it plenty of time if I am long a put or a call. I like real short term options if I'm short puts or calls (option writer)
  • #25,205
  • Jan 21, 2013 10:36am Jan 21, 2013 10:36am
Quoting DaddyBear
Welcome, loculocu. Good luck to your shorts even I don't believe in luck too much. -DB-
Haha, thanks me either. Is not luck is knowlegement
  • #25,206
  • Jan 21, 2013 10:37am Jan 21, 2013 10:37am
DB - I would sell you 10300 puts all day long if they're two weeks away from expiration. As long as prices are above 10300 two weeks from now, I would bank all the loot. haha (total cost for me - $12.50)
  • #25,207
  • Jan 21, 2013 10:39am Jan 21, 2013 10:39am
Quoting DaddyBear
It has been said many times by many traders that the Aussie is co-related to the Euro or S&P 500. I have never thought that there are any real connections among them. Look at S&P, it's at 5 year's high but the Aussie is struggling to keep itself above 1.0500. As to the Euro, its daily chart dose not look similar to the Aussie's.

I'd say such a co-relation has been a myth at best.
I think they have a correlation on 70%
  • #25,208
  • Jan 21, 2013 10:46am Jan 21, 2013 10:46am
Quoting loculocu
I think they have a correlation on 70%
I'd put it at about 5% ------------ Each and every market does its own thing. Sometimes it might travel a similar road as the S&P and Euro and sometimes it don't. As they say 'it works as long as it works until it don't work'.
  • #25,209
  • Jan 21, 2013 10:52am Jan 21, 2013 10:52am
Quoting chiknthief
I wouldn't attempt day trading options. I trade options long term. If the market goes your way you can just sit on them until they expire and bank the money and only pay half the commission ($12.50). But you can offset at anytime you desire. I usually use a 50% stop (close only) on options. The liquidity is decent as long as you place your order between the bid and ask price,
I was talking about 100 contracts or more at a time.
daddybearforex. com
  • #25,210
  • Jan 21, 2013 10:52am Jan 21, 2013 10:52am
Quoting chiknthief
I'd put it at about 5% ------------ Each and every market does its own thing. Sometimes it might travel a similar road as the S&P and Euro and sometimes it don't. As they say 'it works as long as it works until it don't work'.
That's the problem
They have a correlation until they don't have...
  • #25,211
  • Jan 21, 2013 10:57am Jan 21, 2013 10:57am
Quoting loculocu
I think they have a correlation on 70%
When it is less than 100%, they cannot be called correlated.
daddybearforex. com
  • #25,212
  • Jan 21, 2013 10:58am Jan 21, 2013 10:58am
my short target is 50% fibbo, hope the bad teeth bear is strong
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  • #25,213
  • Jan 21, 2013 11:07am Jan 21, 2013 11:07am
Australian Dollar

March AUD options (49 days from expiration)

..........................CALLS...............................strike price..............................PUTS
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aaa Capture.JPG Size: 30 KB
  • #25,214
  • Jan 21, 2013 11:17am Jan 21, 2013 11:17am
Anyone see the bullish engulfing bar just printed on the H1 as a short term upside clue?
  • #25,215
  • Jan 21, 2013 11:19am Jan 21, 2013 11:19am
Quoting NWSTrading
Anyone see the bullish engulfing bar just printed on the H1 as a short term upside clue?
It is a good question if this candle can be called bullish engulfing.
daddybearforex. com
  • #25,216
  • Jan 21, 2013 11:25am Jan 21, 2013 11:25am
Quoting NWSTrading
Anyone see the bullish engulfing bar just printed on the H1 as a short term upside clue?

10527 next
  • #25,217
  • Jan 21, 2013 11:26am Jan 21, 2013 11:26am
Quoting chiknthief
Australian Dollar

March AUD options (49 days from expiration)

..........................CALLS...............................strike price..............................PUTS
Why not trade spot FX options?
daddybearforex. com
  • #25,218
  • Jan 21, 2013 11:27am Jan 21, 2013 11:27am
Quoting chiknthief
10527 next
Are you sure? I see 1.0500 next.
daddybearforex. com
  • #25,219
  • Jan 21, 2013 11:29am Jan 21, 2013 11:29am
Quoting DaddyBear
Why not trade spot FX options?

Never traded them before, always been a futures trader. Spot options mean right now (spot). Can I go one year out in the future with forex spot options ? I can with futures options if I so wish.
  • #25,220
  • Jan 21, 2013 11:31am Jan 21, 2013 11:31am
Quoting chiknthief
Never traded them before, always been a futures trader. Spot options mean right now (spot). Can I go one year out in the future with forex spot options ? I can with futures options if I so wish.
Yes you can. It's called LEAP. Correct me if I am wrong.
daddybearforex. com
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