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  • #25,181
  • Edited 9:11am Jan 21, 2013 9:01am | Edited 9:11am
Quoting Mr. Scott
I see what you are saying as that one is contrived where as one on top seems quite legitimate.

But what about:

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1358758220

...
This channel may not be sustainable. I have come to realize the reason behind the failure of a bullish channel or a flag. It is because the EWC was not conforming to the preset market paths.
daddybearforex. com
  • #25,182
  • Jan 21, 2013 9:06am Jan 21, 2013 9:06am
Quoting DaddyBear
This channel may not be sustainable. I have come to realize the reason behind the failure of a bullish channel or flag. It is because the EWC was not conforming to the preset market paths.
There are three ways to look at this retracement either from the point of 1.0345 , 1.0395 or 1.0469. I'd prefer to use 1.0345 at this point.
daddybearforex. com
  • #25,183
  • Jan 21, 2013 9:11am Jan 21, 2013 9:11am
Quoting DaddyBear
There are three ways to look at this retracement either from the point 1.0345 , 1.0395 or 1.0469. I'd prefer to use 1.0345 at this point.
My rationale is that this is a major retracement before a thrust to the upside beyond 1.0600.
daddybearforex. com
  • #25,184
  • Jan 21, 2013 9:18am Jan 21, 2013 9:18am
Quoting DaddyBear
My rationale is that this is a major retracement before a thrust to the upside beyond 1.0600.
Another way to look at this is the relationship between Ichimoku Clouds and Bollinger Bands. I know there is something between these two but am still working on it.
daddybearforex. com
  • #25,185
  • Jan 21, 2013 9:35am Jan 21, 2013 9:35am
Quoting DaddyBear
My rationale is that this is a major retracement before a thrust to the upside beyond 1.0600.
So would 38% qualify as a major retracement? Or would you need more?
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #25,186
  • Jan 21, 2013 9:41am Jan 21, 2013 9:41am
Quoting Mr. Scott
So would 38% qualify as a major retracement? Or would you need more?
IMO 38.2% is a minor. The issue now is that this Fib line was broken last week. I was looking for an upward move before Sunday Open. Then the market has revealed more clues to us since then. I would change my view and positions accordingly. This is not saying that I am correct but only to share my opinions.
daddybearforex. com
  • #25,187
  • Jan 21, 2013 9:49am Jan 21, 2013 9:49am
waiting for short .......
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  • #25,188
  • Jan 21, 2013 9:51am Jan 21, 2013 9:51am
We shall see 1.04 this week imo.
  • #25,189
  • Jan 21, 2013 9:55am Jan 21, 2013 9:55am
It has been said many times by many traders that the Aussie is co-related to the Euro or S&P 500. I have never thought that there are any real connections among them. Look at S&P, it's at 5 year's high but the Aussie is struggling to keep itself above 1.0500. As to the Euro, its daily chart dose not look similar to the Aussie's.

I'd say such a co-relation has been a myth at best.
daddybearforex. com
  • #25,190
  • Jan 21, 2013 9:55am Jan 21, 2013 9:55am
The BIG BEAR SCREAMS (DB is right - major major major downside correction coming) 38% = 9100 area and 50% = 8500 territory. The COT commercials (the BIGGEST boys of all are selling the hell out of the AUD) They will eventually prevail - they always do.Do those low numbers sound impossible? Think again. Look at your longer term charts.
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  • #25,191
  • Jan 21, 2013 9:59am Jan 21, 2013 9:59am
Quoting DaddyBear
IMO 38.2% is a minor. The issue now is that this Fib line was broken last week. I was looking for an upward move before Sunday Open. Then the market has revealed more clues to us since then. I would change my view and positions accordingly. This is not saying that I am correct but only to share my opinions.
Right that is what I figured you meant.

50% would bring us back to bottom of support zone. 61.8% would be pb zone of first big move.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #25,192
  • Jan 21, 2013 10:00am Jan 21, 2013 10:00am
Quoting chiknthief
The BIG BEAR SCREAMS (DB is right - major major major downside correction coming) 38% = 9100 area and 50% = 8500 territory. The COT commercials (the BIGGEST boys of all are selling the hell out of the AUD) They will eventually prevail - they always do.Do those low numbers sound impossible? Think again. Look at your longer term charts.
Hey Chik, I do have some reservations about your assessment. I agree the Aussie will be heading to the direction you just pointed out. However, the timing may be too soon in you end. I am looking for a new high before your scenario plays out.
daddybearforex. com
  • #25,193
  • Jan 21, 2013 10:02am Jan 21, 2013 10:02am
Quoting Mr. Scott
Right that is what I figured you meant.

50% would bring us back to bottom of support zone. 61.8% would be pb zone of first big move.
Could be deeper. A bull has to fall to the ground and dies before he can gain a new life........
daddybearforex. com
  • #25,194
  • Jan 21, 2013 10:05am Jan 21, 2013 10:05am
Quoting Sayap111
waiting for short .......
Which level are you waiting for?
daddybearforex. com
  • #25,195
  • Jan 21, 2013 10:06am Jan 21, 2013 10:06am
Quoting DaddyBear
Hey Chik, I do have some reservations about your assessment. I agree the Aussie will be heading to the direction you just pointed out. However, the timing may be too soon in you end. I am looking for a new high before your scenario plays out.

No more new highs imo.

Time is running out.

Did you how NZD react to CPI last week?

We shall see how AUD react tomo.
  • #25,196
  • Jan 21, 2013 10:06am Jan 21, 2013 10:06am
Quoting DaddyBear
Could be deeper. A bull has to fall to the ground and dies before he can gain a new life........
Right, if 61.8 does not hold, usually 100% is likely.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #25,197
  • Jan 21, 2013 10:07am Jan 21, 2013 10:07am
Chik, your big bear has to clean up his teeth at a dental office...

Quoting chiknthief
The BIG BEAR SCREAMS (DB is right - major major major downside correction coming) 38% = 9100 area and 50% = 8500 territory. The COT commercials (the BIGGEST boys of all are selling the hell out of the AUD) They will eventually prevail - they always do.Do those low numbers sound impossible? Think again. Look at your longer term charts.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1358783682
daddybearforex. com
  • #25,198
  • Jan 21, 2013 10:11am Jan 21, 2013 10:11am
Quoting DaddyBear
Hey Chik, I do have some reservations about your assessment. I agree the Aussie will be heading to the direction you just pointed out. However, the timing may be too soon in you end. I am looking for a new high before your scenario plays out.

I'm not timing the market in that post - just giving the BIG PICTURE. Not saying we wont rally a little from here first. I do not believe it has enough strength to take out the 10650 area (monthly green line on my chart) due to heavy commercial selling. If you're lucky enough to sell it at 10650 it might be one hell of a great short trade for a trade lasting for at least several months duration. I'm loading up on AUD futures put options for a long term trade. That way I don't have to pay those pesky fees you get on forex everyday and I can sell and hold for a long time.
  • #25,199
  • Jan 21, 2013 10:15am Jan 21, 2013 10:15am
Now, it appears to me that the Cyan = Cyan pattern could be more likely at this juncture.

Quoting DaddyBear
This is the daily chart as of 01/18/13.

Based on patternology, two implications can be visualized:

1. Yellow = Yellow implies next upward move.
2. Cyan = Cyan implies next downward move.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1358613922
daddybearforex. com
  • #25,200
  • Jan 21, 2013 10:17am Jan 21, 2013 10:17am
Quoting DaddyBear
Chik, your big bear has to clean up his teeth at a dental office...

He's been eating up the dirty bulls. Damn bulls keep feeding the bear more and more and his teeth get dirty. haha
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