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Davit's Confluence Trading

  • #101
  • Edited 3:00am Jan 5, 2013 2:43am | Edited 3:00am
If you can see the candle that took my interest on the 5 min the tadpole looking candle where i have read that it is normally due to indication of people selling off " i think this is right, but all i know is that when this candle pops up there is a movement on the next bar" Also knowing that on the 1 hour we had a possible retracement setup with two or 3 more candles.

NOTE: Before this trade I also did some successful scalping just channel lines with the moving average indicators and worked in bounce from bull channel line to bear channel line.

After all this i was up to $94 then for some very annoying reason i decided go short again knowing there was no indication and nothing to tell me that is was going short at the same point i exited therefore i ended finishing the week at 49$ oh well
  • #102
  • Jan 5, 2013 3:03am Jan 5, 2013 3:03am
Quoting Davit
Reading
Trade What You See: How To Profit from Pattern Recognition

This is about Gartley patterns.Interesting that Gartley was charging staggering $1500 for each copy of the book in 1935!!!Worth of 3 cars at the time...
Anyway I am late comer to Gartley patterns (2nd year trading) and I am very much hooked.I love Fib ratios and Gartley patterns makes the fibs come alive.


Personal notes.
1.Look...





WOW $1500 for the book that is amazing, yep i was lose my little account when ever i trade when I'm not thinking clearly and I'm running off adrenalin. Davit will you be posting you actual account profit and projections "only due to motivation for young traders like myself "
  • #103
  • Jan 5, 2013 3:06am Jan 5, 2013 3:06am
Quoting Davit
UC +160 pips and counting. TP around 9950 looking to collect over 500pips
Davit how did you setup your platform to show news announcements bottom left
  • #104
  • Jan 5, 2013 4:49am Jan 5, 2013 4:49am
Quoting well0143
Davit how did you setup your platform to show news announcements bottom left
Nice indi


I would suggest you reduce your lot size and trade very small until you get sufficient about it.
http://www.harmonictrader.com/
download the free book and study.Its important you understand how markets move.At 1st it seems random but in actuality there are patterns.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 FFCal Headlines.ex4   36 KB | 248 downloads
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #105
  • Jan 5, 2013 7:21am Jan 5, 2013 7:21am
Quoting Davit
Nice indi


I would suggest you reduce your lot size and trade very small until you get sufficient about it.
http://www.harmonictrader.com/
download the free book and study.Its important you understand how markets move.At 1st it seems random but in actuality there are patterns.

Thank you davit, unfortunately with igmarkets I can not reduce my lot size looking into the broker capital cfds due to being able to use mt4 with them including smaller lots; finishing the book technical anaylsis of the futures market by John Murphy good intro book into pattern recognition, will start on the book you recommended
  • #106
  • Jan 5, 2013 7:25am Jan 5, 2013 7:25am
Quoting Davit
Nice indi


I would suggest you reduce your lot size and trade very small until you get sufficient about it.
http://www.harmonictrader.com/
download the free book and study.Its important you understand how markets move.At 1st it seems random but in actuality there are patterns.
I've read a bit about the abcd pattern in tech anaylsis for the futures market by John Murphy but interested about the gartely pattern
  • #107
  • Jan 7, 2013 11:36am Jan 7, 2013 11:36am
Going short on S&P500.. It reached a resistance. I dont have time to put an image. now..
Swing with the tide, Surf with the waves!
  • #108
  • Jan 9, 2013 6:18am Jan 9, 2013 6:18am
I'm short this guy and going back to bed - let the market decide. Price just moved as I was typing and moving stop to BE + 1 for a free trade.

Shalom

George
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Low Risk Low Stress High Reward High Probability Trades
  • #109
  • Jan 9, 2013 7:38am Jan 9, 2013 7:38am
Closed trade for about 10 pips when I noticed problem @ 8350 where the bullish trendline and half number met on the M15 TF and similar occurrence also on the H1 TF with the 72MA right under the half number; and no surprise when price bounced off this level. It was a CT trade and was promptly laid to rest before it could do any damage.

Still watching this guy for another failure @ 8400.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Low Risk Low Stress High Reward High Probability Trades
  • #110
  • Jan 10, 2013 2:21pm Jan 10, 2013 2:21pm
Quoting Davit
Hi KADC
Nice to see you post again.Your lot size made my think ant (me) versus an elephant
I agree I hate selling the Aussie for same reason.Come to think of it I dislike this currency and often just ignore it.I tend to be more of a seller trader then a buyer and Aussie is just too stubborn to fall.
Yen pairs are so overdue for retrace and yet I dare not short them because of Japan's fundamental policy of devaluation of it.For now I will be a spectator unless I see real opportunity.
Regards
If you trade currency futures rather than the actual pairs, each future represents $12,500, so two, which would cost you roughly $800, would be the same as taking out a full-sized Forex lot which costs roughly $800 on margin.

...

I was looking at the seasonality charts for gold and thought I'd take a look at Forex seasonality which for some reason I'd never done before, and, at least in recent years, Yen pairs (including USD/JPY) fall (favouring Yen) at the end of March and USD pairs fall (favouring USD) at the end of April. I always look at seasonality for stocks and futures, so I guess I've been short-term Forex trading so long that I'd gotten stuck in a routine to have ignored something so obvious for so long.

Gold falls in February, Yen in March, US$ in April, stocks in May ...it's almost like the market is manipulated...

On the next EUR/JPY pullback (I wasn't trading this week so I missed yet another opportunity -- and what a glorious opportunity it was) I'll go long EUR/JPY and hold it until the end of April then chose the best Yen pair to ride down, pending the appropriate trade signals, of course, and see how a long-term trade works out.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #111
  • Jan 15, 2013 9:31am Jan 15, 2013 9:31am
The Cad group doesn't look with and steady direction. Almost all are ranging. Looking at the Eur group, many seem to have reached a resistance. So, I decide to take a short on Eur-Cad.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Swing with the tide, Surf with the waves!
  • #112
  • Jan 18, 2013 7:59am Jan 18, 2013 7:59am
This short video has the best technical analysis of USD/CAD that I've seen.

Inserted Video
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #113
  • Jan 19, 2013 11:04am Jan 19, 2013 11:04am
Quoting KADC
This short video has the best technical analysis of USD/CAD that I've seen.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6_sF8...em-uploademail
Hi bro
I was so caught up in Euro trade that missed breakout on Cad.It finally broke 99.I will buy some if it falls below 9860
Interesting 100% of all my Cad trades were buys and all winners.I have no loss on this pair which makes me go hmmmmmmmmm I should just trade this pair alone but then this pair range is mediocre 35pips on average...
Anyway moral is Cad is worth only to buy to me and hold until appreciates.
I have several limit orders 9850 9840 9830 9800 waiting to be triggered.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #114
  • Jan 19, 2013 11:12am Jan 19, 2013 11:12am
Finished my week in mediocre style
Not happy at all how I handled getting pressured on Euro around 1.3390 area.I had 4 large sell orders from 3320 3335 3360 3395 and panicked and closed all with -200pips loss.
Took a good chunk of my monthly profits.I am still up 5% for the month but that loss taught me a lesson.Trust your system and stick with it.
Ironically After closing PA drops and hits my TP in less then 8hrs.
I could of been +250 pips in 8hrs.....instead I am holding the trash.
Anyway when experts say trading is 80% psychology believe it.Gonna have to work on this area.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #115
  • Jan 20, 2013 2:39am Jan 20, 2013 2:39am
Inserted Video

Solaris (Scena levitazione)
Perhaps one of the greatest music ever written
Bach - Ich'ruf zu dir, Herr Jesu Christ (Bwv 639)

I am agnostic and not religious by traditional ways however this music goes deep so deep in fact it sheds light on human condition.How can music say so much that words can't....

This is deeply inspirational music and if you suffer losses in trading step back and reflect..material things are just transitory...take care of your soul.Don't lose your humanity.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #116
  • Jan 20, 2013 3:34am Jan 20, 2013 3:34am
Quoting Davit
Finished my week in mediocre style
Not happy at all how I handled getting pressured on Euro around 1.3390 area.I had 4 large sell orders from 3320 3335 3360 3395 and panicked and closed all with -200pips loss.
Took a good chunk of my monthly profits.I am still up 5% for the month but that loss taught me a lesson.Trust your system and stick with it.
Ironically After closing PA drops and hits my TP in less then 8hrs.
I could of been +250 pips in 8hrs.....instead I am holding the trash.
Anyway when experts say trading is 80% psychology believe it.Gonna...
That's happened to me far too many times. I'm good at picking targets but when price goes too far astray I get out. Granted, that is what you're supposed to do (isn't it?), but nine times out of ten (and that's not even an exaggeration) if I'd held my "bad" trades a little longer I'd be in the money. When you see that you're losing actual money it's a lot harder to stick with your trade no matter how much you "know" you're right.

I haven' been trading USD/CAD lately for exactly the reason you wrote two posts ago, it's barely moving, plus there's not really any fundamental weakness in the Loonie. I haven't been trading gold futures, normally my favourite, because I don't like how it's reacted since the low on the 4th. I've focused on EUR/JPY since the Yen is still fundamentally the weakest currency paired against the {cough} strength {cough} of the Euro. Hopefully the BoJ doesn't say anything Monday to change that because there's no way to prepare for BoJ announcements since they refuse to schedule when they will release them.

GBP/USD looks ready to reverse course and I was ready to go long AUD/USD as well but I'm not convinced USD is going to be cooperative so I might look at other Pound and Aussie pairs. With Monday being a US holiday maybe I'll just take the day off too.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #117
  • Jan 20, 2013 4:49pm Jan 20, 2013 4:49pm
I don't know if is my imagination but I think the forex market is moving less that it use to be 2-3 years ago. When I started to learn, my first pair traed was the US-JY; I use to made 20 pips easily in a few minutes. Now we have to wait a day to see a move of 10 pips (some times). The euro moved 200 pips in a day. Now spent days ranging before a move like that. The GBP too, it use to move more than the Eur, now it is the oposite and it is moving less too. I think today there are more traders focus on scalping or intraday trading than before....
Swing with the tide, Surf with the waves!
  • #118
  • Jan 20, 2013 5:03pm Jan 20, 2013 5:03pm
Quoting FxRetro
I don't know if is my imagination but I think the forex market is moving less that it use to be 2-3 years ago. When I started to learn, my first pair traed was the US-JY; I use to made 20 pips easily in a few minutes. Now we have to wait a day to see a move of 10 pips (some times). The euro moved 200 pips in a day. Now spent days ranging before a move like that. The GBP too, it use to move more than the Eur, now it is the oposite and it is moving less too. I think today there are more traders focus on scalping or intraday trading than before....
I think part of the reason is most major currency countries are experiencing same regressions hence no clear strong or weak currency except Yen now.
Here is my outlook for Euro
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #119
  • Jan 20, 2013 10:21pm Jan 20, 2013 10:21pm
Week starting with positive Pips
+11 Pips on Euro. Reentered Shorts at 3320 2x
I have pending short at 8380 NU which is 618 retrace ABCD possible formation.
If CAD falls anywhere below 9850 I have multiple pending buys.
Goal for this week 500pips.
On GU my feeling is shorting is dangerous now.I will look to buy at better opportunity.
Not touching Yen pairs since BOJ is due to issue a statement today and I don't want to guess what that may be.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #120
  • Jan 20, 2013 10:30pm Jan 20, 2013 10:30pm
Quoting 919gilead
Closed trade for about 10 pips when I noticed problem @ 8350 where the bullish trendline and half number met on the M15 TF and similar occurrence also on the H1 TF with the 72MA right under the half number; and no surprise when price bounced off this level. It was a CT trade and was promptly laid to rest before it could do any damage.

Still watching this guy for another failure @ 8400.
Hi George I made most profit trading NU basically shorting every-time PA hit above 8420 and closed below 8390area.
This pair seems humbly predictable.
Good trading.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
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