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AUD/USD

  • #57,421
  • Jan 17, 2013 9:03pm Jan 17, 2013 9:03pm
Quoting fxtyrant
Trade direction for me is always to short as im counter ema trend for me when emas are showing bullish, i look for short opportunities.... If i was in frong of my computer, i wouldve showed u why im short audusd since asian open
But i can tell u the decision to short is because i have a confirmed macd bearish div signal on daily
i was abit worried shorting this morning as you can see why from my chart.
but the moment it broke to downside, i was more confident and short it.

http://fx2.it-finance.com/FXStreetFl...7536a6101e.png
  • #57,422
  • Jan 17, 2013 9:04pm Jan 17, 2013 9:04pm
E/U, M15

i am expecting a drop but its still holding well..
http://fx1.it-finance.com/FXStreetFl...5962207073.png
  • #57,423
  • Jan 17, 2013 11:00pm Jan 17, 2013 11:00pm
From a trading perspective, AU is a dog with fleas. Haven't traded it this year. I monitor it because I trade EA, but the moves are erratic. I'm sure it will get on track, but it isn't moving like it used to regards news etc.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #57,424
  • Edited 3:53am Jan 18, 2013 3:27am | Edited 3:53am
And audusd continues lower.... I expect 1.0450 first
When AUDUSD signals for a move... it sure moves fast...
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/52561775/Fo...dusd.daily.gif
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #57,425
  • Jan 19, 2013 3:34am Jan 19, 2013 3:34am
Quoting Jacky2020
In H4 time frame by ab=cd pattern being formed and time period being fulfilled we are observing a decline in the price. we expect seeing the price moving down to the uptrend line at 1.0470 area if the bears pressure comes in.



result :
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud.jpg Size: 54 KB
  • #57,426
  • Jan 20, 2013 6:18am Jan 20, 2013 6:18am
AUD/USD bounced very late friday night/saturday morning off bullish trendline, will it hold, let's see on market open
  • #57,427
  • Jan 20, 2013 7:54pm Jan 20, 2013 7:54pm
I think I'll take a long on A/U

Make that to go, please
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #57,428
  • Jan 20, 2013 8:25pm Jan 20, 2013 8:25pm
hmmmmm... we could try a little "what if". What if A/U where to to bounce back to the 1.0550 area ? That would make it seem like an inverted HS though a little too "high" for my liking.

IF it reached 1.0550 then the target for HS is (maybe) equal to that of the "peak to pivot". This would mean that the target (buy) would be a little above 1.6
Which would also put it above former resistance

so it might sail on ???

Wouldn't that be fun ! ?
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #57,429
  • Jan 20, 2013 9:11pm Jan 20, 2013 9:11pm
Still.... I'm thinking that IF it doesn't go above 1.0530 (that's no big deal)
But IF it falls below 1.0480
That could suck for me

Now at (nearly) BE in A/U & E/A
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #57,430
  • Jan 22, 2013 2:32am Jan 22, 2013 2:32am
She's going down. Rate will be cut again and 1.06 prooved very hard to break.
  • #57,431
  • Jan 22, 2013 6:02am Jan 22, 2013 6:02am
nearing 1.0581 resistance level
  • #57,432
  • Jan 23, 2013 5:38am Jan 23, 2013 5:38am
Worse than expected CPI figures didn't seem to have made too much of an impact as price rebounded back to pre announcement levels. Sentiment in AUD still strong in that case.
  • #57,433
  • Jan 27, 2013 12:31am Jan 27, 2013 12:31am
continuing on its downtrend
  • #57,434
  • Jan 27, 2013 12:58pm Jan 27, 2013 12:58pm
is there any reason why the AUD depreciate so much during the last week ??
I will become the World's best at my own style
  • #57,435
  • Jan 27, 2013 1:26pm Jan 27, 2013 1:26pm
Quoting Celente
is there any reason why the AUD depreciate so much during the last week ??
Yes, AUD LIBOR has once again started to lose ground:
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/audlib.shtml

Check 12M AUD Libor (brown line) ... changes are quickest to be seen there ... it has fallen from around 5,00 to 3,60 in just a year and steeply falling. AUD is losing primate as high yielding currency. Expectations are it shall go another 100 basic points down or even more in 2013 alone.

If you check EURAUD graph, you'll see where EURAUD was when interest rates between EUR and AUD were similar. EURAUD was between 1,60-2,00! So it is logical, we could easily go there since we already went from 1,16 to 1,29, but 1,29 is still very far from 1,60.

So, AUD could be the loser of the year 2013. Keep that in mind when longing AUD.
  • #57,436
  • Jan 27, 2013 3:20pm Jan 27, 2013 3:20pm
Quoting Spik
Yes, AUD LIBOR has once again started to lose ground:
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/audlib.shtml

Check 12M AUD Libor (brown line) ... changes are quickest to be seen there ... it has fallen from around 5,00 to 3,60 in just a year and steeply falling. AUD is losing primate as high yielding currency. Expectations are it shall go another 100 basic points down or even more in 2013 alone.

If you check EURAUD graph, you'll see where EURAUD was when interest rates between EUR and AUD were similar. EURAUD was between 1,60-2,00!...
thank you pal
I will become the World's best at my own style
  • #57,437
  • Jan 29, 2013 3:36am Jan 29, 2013 3:36am
I think we could see support for AUD/USD at 1.0430 area for a ride into 1.0480 area which could offer resistance...
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #57,438
  • Jan 29, 2013 6:05am Jan 29, 2013 6:05am
Quoting fibstalker
I think we could see support for AUD/USD at 1.0430 area for a ride into 1.0480 area which could offer resistance...
Here is my chart on AUD/USD which matches that of Crassius on the "EUR/USD" thread, and supports what I have posted before:

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1359454614

The forex pair has interrupted its sequence of measured moves lower, so I believe it's due for a larger retracement higher.
However the levels around 1.0330-80 never traded and this has me worried because there is where professional and Program Trading would participate on the long side. So I assume what it is going to unfold is just short covering and we have more downside (Scenario 1 below, is the more probable for me)

These are the 2 scenarios I could identify in the short-term and going forward:

Scenario 1. If price sees 1.0430 area that would be a good entry with a stop below 1.0410. 1st target is at 1.0480 area, right a resistance.

Scenario 2. Only if price moves above 1.0520 I will give bulls credibility. In that case price could dip once again into the 1.0460-80 area and then continue higher

A good long opportunity is unfolding here. Please let me have your thoughts. Thank you.

Trade safe
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #57,439
  • Jan 29, 2013 8:24am Jan 29, 2013 8:24am
Quoting fibstalker
Here is my chart on AUD/USD which matches that of Crassius on the "EUR/USD" thread, and supports what I have posted before...
The up to date commentary and video on my blog http://wp.me/p2oF7p-wD
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #57,440
  • Jan 29, 2013 9:28am Jan 29, 2013 9:28am
Hope to make all who are long currencies towards the USD happy with this post.

This is what I see in the Dollar Index going forward. Maybe 79 hit by the end of the week.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1359472549

The 80.20-30 level of resistance has been consistent and held all the time the EUR/USD was supported by the 1.3260 level.

By breaking the 79.70 level the Dollar Index confirmed the 1st target printing right at previous lows, in the 79 area. That's where I see DX in the coming days maybe - as anticipated - by the end of the week.

Notice that the 79.30 area has been previous sloppy support and is here a broken line. I think there is also broken participation at those levels. Do not anticipate a reaction in that area.

Trade safe & good luck
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
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