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  • #2,741
  • Jan 18, 2013 2:27am Jan 18, 2013 2:27am
Quoting Crassius
EURUSD looking weak with a lot of overlapping PA... if 3360 breaks to the downside there is support just below at 3349, 3335.... doubt it goes below 3335... Cancelling my stop loss order at 3365.... I'm just gonna hang onto it since solid support just below anyway... that is where I would look to reload 3349, then 3335...
Here ar ethe supports circled....

The 100 HMA is right in this zone as well... should catch any pullback that appears to be already underway...
Attached Image
  • #2,742
  • Jan 18, 2013 2:34am Jan 18, 2013 2:34am
Whole soft nest of support just below price....
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  • #2,743
  • Jan 18, 2013 3:41am Jan 18, 2013 3:41am
Quoting Crassius
Whole soft nest of support just below price....

Bouncing off support now, but I foresee another pull back.. as deep as 3315 trades 3352 right now off 3337 low
  • #2,744
  • Jan 18, 2013 4:03am Jan 18, 2013 4:03am
Quoting Crassius
Bouncing off support now, but I foresee another pull back.. as deep as 3315 trades 3352 right now off 3337 low
Trading below 3115 invalidates the an bullish impulsive count, doesn't it?
  • #2,745
  • Jan 18, 2013 4:10am Jan 18, 2013 4:10am
I think what we have is a completed 5 five wave impulse at 3398, and we are in the pullback that could go as low as the 61.8% retrace...

I'm not sure at this point what degree the 3398 high is, but it is just a fractal.. or smaller part, wave 1 or part of unclear forming extension...

Since we have a completed 5 wave sequence up ending at 3398, a pull back of 61.8 would be normal forming a wave 2 bottom....

Chart to follow soon...
  • #2,746
  • Jan 18, 2013 4:31am Jan 18, 2013 4:31am
Quoting Crassius
.

Chart to follow soon...
The 3398 print was the end of an ending diagonal pattern, that allows for wave 4 overlap (requires it actually) only in a wave 5 or C position... It occurs in a creeping market with little underlying conviction... hence the overlapping into a new high. I think we got this movement because EURJPY is driving Euro everything right now...

Here's the chart... It goes to what I was speaking about yesterday as this was underway.... its hard sometimes to know when you are looking at a fractal... a small interior piece or a whole...

Counting live on an unfolding chart is very different from labeling a static completed chart... each bar can change the picture... I am betting this is just a small piece, not "failed" of truncated 5th, which would call for a deeper correction...

at this point I am holding my longs, I took off 25% of my position already anticipating this ending diagonal seeing all the overlap... and will add at 3315 if we get there because I think that is the deepest it will go...

If doesn't pull back that deep, I still have 75% of my longs from 3295...

Stop is moved below 3250... out of the way , but there for emergency... for now..
Attached Image
  • #2,747
  • Jan 18, 2013 4:36am Jan 18, 2013 4:36am
Here's the pattern.... on the way up, we had an overlap inside the forming wave 5 at 1.3361....
Attached Image
  • #2,748
  • Jan 18, 2013 5:05am Jan 18, 2013 5:05am
Quoting Crassius
Here's the pattern.... on the way up, we had an overlap inside the forming wave 5 at 1.3361....
You are sure right that counting in hindsight is much easier than foresight! I imagine that when you have counted waves long enough they start to occur in foresight as possibilities.
  • #2,749
  • Jan 18, 2013 5:11am Jan 18, 2013 5:11am
Quoting Brapp
You are sure right that counting in hindsight is much easier than foresight! I imagine that when you have counted waves long enough they start to occur in foresight as possibilities.
I still need lots of practice.... one of the reasons I post here is it helps me organize my thoughts... but there is also much of the thought process that is just way too verbose to ever post...

The process is starting out with several possibilities, and then eliminating them as the chart unfolds...

overlapping price action at 3361,(just that one bar) is what clued me into an ending diagonal possibility this last swing... Then I look and the swings can be counted as threes... etc etc..
  • #2,750
  • Jan 18, 2013 5:15am Jan 18, 2013 5:15am
EURJPY recovers from its pull back and is back over 120, and of course EURUSD seems to have recovered from its pull back...

No one is really trading EURUSD... or cares about EURUSD right now... its all EURJPY.... Usually EURUSD is leading the market... but the JPY manipulation is driving everything right now...
  • #2,751
  • Jan 18, 2013 5:18am Jan 18, 2013 5:18am
I have some orders to buy EURJPY lower... I think we have only 2 legs of a 3 legged downswing at this point...

If that happens, it should catch my EURJPY orders on the next 3rd leg of a 3 legged downswing... and that will cause EURUSD to mirror that, and fill my buy order at 3315...

I'm already long USDJPY
  • #2,752
  • Jan 18, 2013 5:39am Jan 18, 2013 5:39am
Hi Crassius
I'll be happy to share my view with you...

Well... I am still scratching my head…
Bulls couldn’t break 1.3400 and a strong “bull-back” from this area makes me think that bulls just gave up for rest of the day.
Maybe next week they will try again, but today they just took their profits before weekend, which I do understand fully…
Four hour candle looking bearish, forming nice double top, also strong bearish divergence on oscillators, therefore I put my bear hat on for today.
For today, my target is combination of FIBO retracement and S/R at 1.33100
Certainly, my scenario would be rejected if we break 1.3400, which is less likely for me, but still possible.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,753
  • Jan 18, 2013 5:41am Jan 18, 2013 5:41am
Quoting halkins
Hi Crassius
I'll be happy to share my view with you...

Well... I am still scratching my head…
Bulls couldn’t break 1.3400 and a strong “bull-back” from this area makes me think that bulls just gave up for rest of the day.
Maybe next week they will try again, but today they just took their profits before weekend, which I do understand fully…
Four hour candle looking bearish, forming nice double top, also strong bearish divergence on oscillators, therefore I put my bear hat on for today.
For today, my target is combination of FIBO retracement and...
You have a very good chance of hitting that 3310...
  • #2,754
  • Jan 18, 2013 6:15am Jan 18, 2013 6:15am
We wont be finished with EURUSD pull back until EURJPY is finished with its pull back...

EURJPY is forming wave C of its ABC correction, and is in wave 4 of its five wave C.... it seems at this point in time to be forming wave 4 of c as a triangle.

When the triangle is complete EURJPY will take one more leg down... to complete wave C... and EURUSD will follow.... maybe to the 61.8% retrace area at 3110... 3115 is support just before.

I have EURJPY data problems on my main platform... so here is a rough diagram of the unfolding triangle possibility from another platform... not as easy to label...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,755
  • Jan 18, 2013 6:24am Jan 18, 2013 6:24am
Here's the pattern... We use the bear market triangle in this case because even though EURJPY larger trend is Bull, the triangle is an interior wave to the C wave, which is heading down (bear)
Attached Image
  • #2,756
  • Jan 18, 2013 6:43am Jan 18, 2013 6:43am
Failed triangle on EURJPY....

Want to see a print above 120.37 to absolutely put a fork in any more corrective movement from EURJPY... but it looks done to me...

Would count as a truncated 5th wave as it was only 2 pips shy of the prior wave, and this is intraday....

Let's hope us bulls are away to the races, for the next leg up....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,757
  • Jan 18, 2013 6:46am Jan 18, 2013 6:46am
Quoting Crassius
Failed triangle on EURJPY....

Want to see a print above 120.37 to absolutely put a fork in any more corrective movement from EURJPY... but it looks done to me...

Would count as a truncated 5th wave as it was only 2 pips shy of the prior wave, and this is intraday....

Let's hope us bulls are away to the races, for the next leg up....

Hmmm Looking on my last four 1H candles I am hesitating...
Price stuck between different SMA's both from bottom and top, Just like your triangle...
Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #2,758
  • Jan 18, 2013 6:49am Jan 18, 2013 6:49am
Quoting halkins
Hmmm Looking on my last four 1H candles I am hesitating...
Price stuck between different SMA's both from bottom and top, Just like your triangle...
Maybe EURJPY just decided to do some more complex correction... who knows... its the future

Sure looks like an impulsive end to a correction, but that pair is always explosive......
  • #2,759
  • Jan 18, 2013 6:57am Jan 18, 2013 6:57am
Quoting Crassius
Maybe EURJPY just decided to do some more complex correction... who knows... its the future

Sure looks like an impulsive end to a correction, but that pair is always explosive......
Now, 4 minutes before close my 1H candle looks much better
Looks like this impuls was a bunch of big SELL orders, hopefully
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  • #2,760
  • Jan 18, 2013 6:58am Jan 18, 2013 6:58am
Quoting halkins
Now, 4 minutes before close my 1H candle looks much better
Looks like this impuls was a bunch of big SELL orders, hopefully
EURJPY hasn't printed 120.37 yet... so there is no pverlap yet... still could be wave 4 with one lower wave 5 yet to come...
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