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  • #4,881
  • Jan 17, 2013 9:59pm Jan 17, 2013 9:59pm
Quoting Belmont
... but I also think we're getting a bit off the track now... all you need is about 2-3 winning trades a week, no need to chase the market...
I agree 100%. I'm also seeing that people are moving away from the simplicity of this strategy and complicating things unnecessary.
  • #4,882
  • Jan 18, 2013 4:30am Jan 18, 2013 4:30am
Here's some handy tips for newbie's and people struggling with settings based on either one or trades per CZ and no martingaling.......

1) Forget the pip count at the bottom when tuning in your settings. Set days back to 100 (its the default...don't change it). Ensure martingaling is off.

2)(a) Start by finding the best individual win ratio percentage if going for one trade per CZ

2)(b) Start by finding the best trade set win ratio percentage if going for two trades per CZ

3)(c) Stop! Did you try both of the above? Sometimes a market will yield higher percentages with (a) than (b) and vice versa.....its up to you to find which!

4) Now, assuming you did the all of the above......you should find that you automatically have a good average CZ's per week figure. If your getting loads of overlapping CZ's your settings are too "loose".

5) If all of the above steps are followed you should.....and here's the red hot tip I have for you......you should find that the last thing you do when tuning in your settings is play with the quick take profit. Lowering this figure and then raising this figure and finding which figure gives the best win/trade set percentage is absolutely key.

6) You've ignored 4) haven't you? Prove to yourself that your settings are indeed weak and you got dollar signs in your eyes by setting days back to 200, then 300.....does your pip count increase? No? Told you so.

7) Followed every step? You should find that doing the test in 6) results in a stable win percentage on any days back setting and your pip count increases the further back you go.

8) Get into the habit of not liking massive jumps in win/trade set percentages when backtesting. Yes backtesting only shows us what has happened BUT if you have a percentages that don't fluctuate too much, you know that your settings have withstood different types of market conditions.

Handy little notes
----------------------

- you should be prepared.....and more than willing...... to spend hours and hours going through each setting up and down in 1's. Personally I have my own order to which I tune in my settings, making sure that at each stage I'm always looking at the win percentage to go up NOT down REGARDLESS of pip count!:

Pip range

Box length

Find the best combo of pip buffer/minimum closes/individual win ratio vs trade set (whichever is higher will determine your strategy of 1 trade per CZ or 2 trades)

Adjusting quick take profit, if you've got great foundations laid by following the above steps, should result in small increases rather than big leaps in pip tallies. Why? Because you've found your sweetspot.....all your doing now is maximising your pips.

REMEMBER.....backtest once you've found the best pip count for 100 days.....if the pips don't go up the further back you go.....re-adjust your QTP setting. 1 pip difference may lose you a few pips but gain you win/trade percentage and thus increase your pip tally backtesting.

This is key, if you see your pip count falling and win/trade set ratio rising....that's a good thing.....you'll notice the average CZ's per week falling also...and that means......another little nugget......your number of trades are decreasing and winning trades increasing hence the loss in pips.

Ensuring concentration on percentages rather than pips is the road to truly finding a niche with SSBO.


I hope this helps guys....
  • #4,883
  • Jan 18, 2013 5:32am Jan 18, 2013 5:32am
Hi
Is it allowed to enter after proper CZ formation at the bottom of the CZ "channel" for BUY and opposite for sell order,when one is monitoring the price live?
  • #4,884
  • Jan 18, 2013 7:58am Jan 18, 2013 7:58am
Quoting dadadada
Hi
Is it allowed to enter after proper CZ formation at the bottom of the CZ "channel" for BUY and opposite for sell order,when one is monitoring the price live?
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=5811021#post5811021 Check out post #2770 , the single most precise answer to all you questions is right there.
  • #4,885
  • Jan 18, 2013 9:30am Jan 18, 2013 9:30am
This is my first post in this thread. I have read the thread from the beginning and I like the breakout strategy. I think that the write settings is the key to success. Thank you A.w.o.l for tips and help with the settings. I hope that I also can contribute with something when I start using the indicator. Does anybody know anything about the EA?
  • #4,886
  • Jan 18, 2013 10:51am Jan 18, 2013 10:51am
Quoting Greger64
This is my first post in this thread. I have read the thread from the beginning and I like the breakout strategy. I think that the write settings is the key to success. Thank you A.w.o.l for tips and help with the settings. I hope that I also can contribute with something when I start using the indicator. Does anybody know anything about the EA?
Your first post and you want to know about the EA, for some reason this just pissed me off. You have to do the work before the ea will be of any value. Lets see some work with your next post. OK. rant over.
I make money anywhere in the world by taking orders
  • #4,887
  • Jan 18, 2013 2:08pm Jan 18, 2013 2:08pm
Quoting A.w.o.l
Here's some handy tips for newbie's and people struggling with settings based on either one or trades per CZ and no martingaling.......

....
Well said "This should be a Law"
  • #4,888
  • Jan 18, 2013 2:44pm Jan 18, 2013 2:44pm
Quoting A.w.o.l
Here's some handy tips for newbie's and people struggling with settings based on either one or trades per CZ and no martingaling.......

1) Forget the pip count at the bottom when tuning in your settings. Set days back to 100 (its the default...don't change it). Ensure martingaling is off.

2)(a) Start by finding the best individual win ratio percentage if going for one trade per CZ

2)(b) Start by finding the best trade set win ratio percentage if going for two trades per CZ

3)(c) Stop! Did you try both of the above? Sometimes a market will yield...
awol, your making it to easy on these guys...lol......Anyways, again, excellent post.....Thank you for taking the time to explain it again.
  • #4,889
  • Jan 18, 2013 5:21pm Jan 18, 2013 5:21pm
I learned this week that if I stick to the SSBO plan, I have an opportunity to be successful. I had one nightmarish trade this week and still ended up 155 pips. I had one CZ that went to my limit of entries which is 3 and it didn’t produce a winner. I honored my plan and didn’t chase it. It didn’t even faze me. I also took a day off to get my mental health back. These may seem like small things, for me and my unlearning of bad habits they are great developments.

Thank you FH, I am grateful that you chose to share your method and others who have contributed to this thread.
I make money anywhere in the world by taking orders
  • #4,890
  • Jan 18, 2013 8:20pm Jan 18, 2013 8:20pm
Quoting SedonaPipper
....Thank you FH, I am grateful that you chose to share your method and others who have contributed to this thread.
You're very welcome, SP. But what ever I've done, I'm just a guide. If your trading is better now than it was a few months ago, all the hard work and credit belong to you. Congratulations!
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #4,891
  • Jan 19, 2013 12:33am Jan 19, 2013 12:33am
Good thread

but it's very big

can any one guide me to the last rules and updates and indicators ????
  • #4,892
  • Jan 19, 2013 12:37am Jan 19, 2013 12:37am
Quoting zelenko
Good thread

but it's very big

can any one guide me to the last rules and updates and indicators ????
Oh my.......
  • #4,893
  • Jan 19, 2013 1:43am Jan 19, 2013 1:43am
Quoting fxglider
How to test your settings:

Here is a method I'm using to check if my box settings are any good:

When you play with box settings, set your days back to only 100. Tweak your box until you are comfortable with your results. Now let's assume you have 200 pips over 100 days. Now set your days back to 200. If your settings were any good you should at least double the pips without adding too much risk. Add another 100 days to it. Now you should get +- 600 pips with not too much more risk. Finally take it back 400 days and see if you end up with +-...
Hi fxglider,

I would be careful with this approach to working out your system. Just remember that the more days you include in back test analysis (or forward test for that matter) will mean the greater chance of a bigger losing streak - even if the system wins a majority of the time.

This comes about due to the fact that you are optimising the method for an initial short period and over time (forward or back) volatility and range will change for every pair. So there is a greater chance of bigger winning AND losing sequences for any system with more trades over time. A good way to assess the potential risk for any system design using this most excellent tool (i.e. the SSBO indicator) is to take the chance of the loss and multiply it by itself to get your systems "1 in 100 failure risk".

For example I might have a set up that wins 60% of the time (so a 40% or 0.4 losing rate), thus the risk of a 1 in 100 failure sequence occuring (i.e.1% chance) is 0.4*0.4*0.4*0.4*0.4 = 0.0102. If we multiply the 0.0102 by 100 we get ~1%. SO there is a 1% chance of 5 losing trades in a row with a method that runs at a 40% loss rate. (In other words 0.4^5 = 0.01).

And for a system that wins 20% of the time (with a much bigger TP to SL) and fails 80% of the time then you can expect a 1% chance of a failure sequence that will extend for 21 trades!!! (0.8^21 = 0.009 = 0.9%)

By contrast for a system that wins 90% of the time (with a much smaller TP to SL) and fails only 10% of the time then you can expect a 1% chance of a failure sequence that will extend for just 2 trades (i.e. 0.1*0.1 = 0.01 = 1%). In other words it is very unlikely to give you more than 2 loses in a row.

The more historical or forward data you use to test, the more likely you will get your 1% chance losing streak occuring. You can't avoid it - it will happen either tomorrow or in a years time. (And optimising every month won't really change the statistical chance of a systems losing streak.)

Now with this 1 in 100 sequence failure risk you can use this to get an idea of your worst case scenario and mentally prepare for this likelihood - and trade the appropriate risk with this in mind.

So you are better optimising over a much longer period and ignoring the short term result. Since a set up that wins over a year or two has a much better chance of surviving as it has likley had several bigger losing streaks and recovered. So by default you have build a system that can handle a bigger volatility and ranging/ trending market.

i hope I don't upset people here with these comments - I have read the thread and understand how FXH and others have been focusing the general system design.

--------
I have been trading for over 10 years and have been full time trader for much of this period. I have been trading a similar approach using a high & low line to create the breakout zone and I have adapted one of my trading systems into the SSBO indicator.
Thanks FXH for an excellent tool and a well run thread.
  • #4,894
  • Jan 19, 2013 1:59am Jan 19, 2013 1:59am
Quoting timmy
...So you are better optimising over a much longer period and ignoring the short term result. Since a set up that wins over a year or two has a much better chance of surviving as it has likley had several bigger losing streaks and recovered. So by default you have build a system that can handle a bigger volatility and ranging/ trending market....
Thank you for your post - I agree 100%
  • #4,895
  • Jan 19, 2013 3:58am Jan 19, 2013 3:58am
Quoting dojirock
usdchf setup...now just wait....
Dojirock, i try to analyse your setups to enhance the number of trading pairs.

But the timeframe shown here is '0'. i never can have this value on my screen with the SSBO indicator.

Would you be kind to tell what timeframe it is ?

Thanks !
  • #4,896
  • Jan 19, 2013 4:08am Jan 19, 2013 4:08am
Hi ForexHard, Xux and all well deserved contributors,
Thumbs up and salute for all of you for sharing such a tremendous thread and helping others without any cost.
FXH started an easy but profitable thread.
This is my 1st post in this thread. I look forward to upload charts and results to get handy and tricky approach from your expertise.
Thanks again to all SSBO's.
  • #4,897
  • Jan 19, 2013 9:22am Jan 19, 2013 9:22am
SedonaPipper,
Because I'm new in this tread, it doesn't mean I'm new in forex trading. I have traded for a couple of years and I have tried many systems and strategies (and also lost a lot of money). I'm a (retired) programmer and have also done some programming in MQL. I asked about the EA is because there have been a lot of discussion about it in the tread. I'm not so much interested in the EA itself (just curious), I like the simplisity of ForexHards box. I have done all the "work" and I know how to find trading opportunities both manually and using the SSBO indicator.

Your comment to me was not very polite, I don't want you to be pissed off, I expected a nicer "welcome". But maybe you just had a bad day, it happens to us forex traders sometimes. I have read your posts and I like what you write. In the future I hope we can use a more friendlier tune.

I,m very grateful to ForexHard and all others who have contributed to this tread and made it available to everybody for free. Thank you!

I have tried with different time frames. It seems to me that M5 and M15 are the most common time frames but I like to use M30. I have made testing and tweaking using M30 with a setting of 100 days. 1 trade per box and no martingale. My findings are:
- The box range should be about the same for different time frames (naturally)
- The box length vary for different pairs but should be about half compared to M15 time frames.
- The best TP values are usually 29-35
- It seems that the best value for MinClosed bars is 0.
- BoxBufferPips should also be 0. I havn't found any occasion when a higher value get better result.

Here are net pips from some of the tested pairs:

- EURJPY 854 pips
- EURCAD 615 pips
- GBPUSD 917 pips
- EURUSD 683 pips
- USDJPY 611 pips

Happy trading to everybody!
  • #4,898
  • Jan 19, 2013 1:39pm Jan 19, 2013 1:39pm
Quoting zelenko
Good thread

but it's very big

can any one guide me to the last rules and updates and indicators ????
Luckily zelenko this thread is absolutely different than 99% of system threads on FF, where rules change every 15 pages and at the end you've got 20 different versions, and no one knows WFT.
And here is the link to the latest rules: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=302007

Regards
A.
  • #4,899
  • Jan 19, 2013 11:25pm Jan 19, 2013 11:25pm
Quoting fx_forever
Dojirock, i try to analyse your setups to enhance the number of trading pairs.

But the timeframe shown here is '0'. i never can have this value on my screen with the SSBO indicator.

Would you be kind to tell what timeframe it is ?

Thanks !
fxforever,

Let me start by apologizing, my intention wasnt to confuse.... I use multiple time frames, like 8, 10, 20 min charts...that is the reason the time doesnt show up on the indi. Just my preference because I also scalp trade another way, and by using the SSBO on those specified charts saves me from having to have SSBO on seperate ones. LIke a all in one chart for me. I will surely post more of the conventional time frame charts so not to confuse. My apologies.

doji
  • #4,900
  • Edited 4:34am Jan 20, 2013 4:03am | Edited 4:34am
Quoting dojirock
fxforever,

Let me start by apologizing, my intention wasnt to confuse.... I use multiple time frames, like 8, 10, 20 min charts...that is the reason the time doesnt show up on the indi. Just my preference because I also scalp trade another way, and by using the SSBO on those specified charts saves me from having to have SSBO on seperate ones. LIke a all in one chart for me. I will surely post more of the conventional time frame charts so not to confuse. My apologies.

doji
The timeline is not constant. It can be some tick chart or something like that, not sure.

Not part of the original SSBO but seems good too if it is.

Thanks !
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