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  • #24,201
  • Jan 16, 2013 7:05pm Jan 16, 2013 7:05pm
well I have realised that I know jack shit about all this ,fear kept me from shorting the aud prior to news and forgot about the short gbpaud I had open ,now I am just sitting in a cloud of dust
  • #24,202
  • Jan 16, 2013 7:07pm Jan 16, 2013 7:07pm
Not into fundie stuff but apart from job vacancies Ausie is looking good?

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/australia/indicators
  • #24,203
  • Jan 16, 2013 7:07pm Jan 16, 2013 7:07pm
Matthew Johnson at UBS a rate cut is a live option for February if CPI data, due next week, is contained:

Data was soft. It keeps rate cuts alive for the Reserve Bank. This is consistent with job ads data. You'd think the unemployment rate would be a bit higher but it does seem fairly certain that the labour market is slackening. A core CPI below 0.5 percent and I think the RBA will cut in February.


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets-live/markets-live-jobs-give-asx-a-boost-20130117-2cuku.html#ixzz2IBsCGevK


  • #24,204
  • Jan 16, 2013 7:25pm Jan 16, 2013 7:25pm
Still unable to brake the trendline....what do you think about this guys...
Bulls or Bears
  • #24,205
  • Jan 16, 2013 7:30pm Jan 16, 2013 7:30pm
Quoting noraffendi
Still unable to brake the trendline....what do you think about this guys...
let me see..
http://www.deviantart.com/download/1...estinysolo.jpg
  • #24,206
  • Jan 16, 2013 7:37pm Jan 16, 2013 7:37pm
Quoting HelloOz
let me see..
http://www.deviantart.com/download/1...estinysolo.jpg
I can see the nose, eyes and mouth.....It's Alient!!
Bulls or Bears
  • #24,207
  • Jan 16, 2013 7:39pm Jan 16, 2013 7:39pm
Quoting arcticwolf
well I have realised that I know jack shit about all this ,fear kept me from shorting the aud prior to news and forgot about the short gbpaud I had open ,now I am just sitting in a cloud of dust
If you are new to the Forex, try not to trade multiple pairs at the same time.
daddybearforex. com
  • #24,208
  • Jan 16, 2013 7:41pm Jan 16, 2013 7:41pm
"Australian employment fell unexpectedly in December, nudging the jobless rate up to 5.4 percent and pushing the local dollar down as the market narrowed the odds of further rate cuts."
-CNBC-
daddybearforex. com
  • #24,209
  • Jan 16, 2013 7:42pm Jan 16, 2013 7:42pm
Quoting HelloOz
maybe a change in govt will fix it?
That will happen only when recession hits. Then there will be a candidate that will run on Abe type of platform and only then will aud will go down - that is, if such a candidate gets elected.

The good thing about Australia though is that it is in a better position to get out of recession - all it has to do is export its natural resources, and that will happen when aud drops. Japan.... has to export decent products in form of cars/electronics. The problem is that Japanese products have not been all that great as of late and lower yen is unlikely to change that. Furthermore, Japan has a major aging/decreasing population issue to deal with and lower yen will not help Japan there either. Then again, these are simply additional reasons why jpy has to be much lower than it is - given the medium/long term fundamentals.
  • #24,210
  • Jan 16, 2013 7:48pm Jan 16, 2013 7:48pm
Quoting maximmm
That will happen only when recession hits. Then there will be a candidate that will run on Abe type of platform and only then will aud will go down - that is, if such a candidate gets elected.

The good thing about Australia though is that it is in a better position to get out of recession - all it has to do is export its natural resources, and that will happen when aud drops. Japan.... has to export decent products in form of cars/electronics. The problem is that Japanese products have not been all that great as of late and lower yen is unlikely...
i heard from Bloomberg that in Japan, they sell more diapers for grandma and grandpa than for babies..
  • #24,211
  • Jan 16, 2013 7:55pm Jan 16, 2013 7:55pm
Quoting HelloOz
im out too..
market is forcing RBA to act, so i expect continue uptrend
Quoting DaddyBear
You've made a big mistake. IMO
It has been said, " Cut your losers short and let your winners run. I've found that letting winners run is even much harder than cutting losers short.

When there is a loser, everyone knows and the only emotion involved is the fear; however, not everyone knows that he has had a winner in his hands. Even if he knew, he would have to deal with the fear of losing the profits and the greed of making more.

Current downward move may last more than 24 hours or even longer. By letting this winner run, if you have one, you will come out as a winner too.
daddybearforex. com
  • #24,212
  • Jan 16, 2013 8:01pm Jan 16, 2013 8:01pm
Quoting DaddyBear
It has been said, " Cut your losers short and let your winners run. I've found that letting winners run is even much harder than cutting losers short.

When there is a loser, everyone knows and the only emotion involved is the fear; however, not everyone knows that he has had a winner in his hands. Even if he knew, he would have to deal with the fear of losing the profits and the greed of making more.

Current downward move may last more than 24 hours or even longer. By letting this winner run, if you have one, you will come out as a winner too....
i knew you are going to say this,
re-enter short 30 mins ago.

tomorrow we have China GDP..
  • #24,213
  • Jan 16, 2013 8:04pm Jan 16, 2013 8:04pm
Quoting DaddyBear
It has been said, " Cut your losers short and let your winners run. I've found that letting winners run is even much harder than cutting losers short.

When there is a loser, everyone knows and the only emotion involved is the fear; however, not everyone knows that he has had a winner in his hands. Even if he knew, he would have to deal with the fear of losing the profits and the greed of making more.

Current downward move may last more than 24 hours or even longer. By letting this winner run, if you have one, you will come out as a winner too....
and you also told me not to be greedy..

its my nap time.. catch you later DB
  • #24,214
  • Jan 16, 2013 8:28pm Jan 16, 2013 8:28pm
So, little koala bear really could read my mind? Or was my message preset as well?

Quoting HelloOz
i knew you are going to say this,
re-enter short 30 mins ago.

tomorrow we have China GDP..
daddybearforex. com
  • #24,215
  • Jan 16, 2013 8:50pm Jan 16, 2013 8:50pm
1.0600 was not tested. Now let me see what is going to happen at 1.0530.

Jan 16, 2013 1:39pm (8 hr ago)

Quoting DaddyBear
I looked at my charts again and again. I'd say it will move up but not 1.0600. Then it will come down but not 1.0530.
daddybearforex. com
  • #24,216
  • Jan 16, 2013 8:51pm Jan 16, 2013 8:51pm
Quoting Tim_isoara
Scott my count EWP. ABC pattern. abcde is wave B.
Nice job.

Sorry I was unable to clarify or respond earlier. I was at my office, and it is not a problem, as it is MY office, but computer was not working properly. Worst part is I inadvertently hit TP on my sh before data.

But in the end, these things even out IMO.

However, I was in agreement with your count as DaddyBear and I had come to that conclusion earlier and that potential triangle was not evolving or viable. Therefore, I will still look to be a buyer at lower levels for C.

But I posted triangle for illustrative and educational purposes only. If that was not clear, I apologize.

No excuses ever here, so I will be more clear in the future. My sincere apologies if my haste misled anyone but hopefully it was clear from my discussion with DB.

Keep up the good work.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #24,217
  • Jan 16, 2013 8:55pm Jan 16, 2013 8:55pm
Quoting DaddyBear
I looked at my charts again and again. I'd say it will move up but not 1.0600. Then it will come down but not 1.0530.
My message was that it wouldn't touch 1.0600 and it would be below 1.0530.
daddybearforex. com
  • #24,218
  • Jan 16, 2013 8:56pm Jan 16, 2013 8:56pm
Quoting DaddyBear
My message was that it wouldn't touch 1.0600 and it would be below 1.0530.
The question now is if 1.0500 can hold up the falling baby.
daddybearforex. com
  • #24,219
  • Jan 16, 2013 9:04pm Jan 16, 2013 9:04pm
Quoting DaddyBear
The question now is if 1.0500 can hold up the falling baby.
This is an important issue in order to determine if a further retreat is in the cards. From December low to January high, it was 253 pips. If a 61.80% retracement occurs in the end, we are looking for a 156 pips bear run from the daily top or 131 pips from today's high.
daddybearforex. com
  • #24,220
  • Jan 16, 2013 9:10pm Jan 16, 2013 9:10pm
Quoting DaddyBear
This is an important issue in order to determine if a further retreat is in the cards. From December low to January high, it was 253 pips. If a 61.80% retracement occurs in the end, we are looking for a 156 pips bear run from the daily top or 131 pips from today's high.
Let me take this issue one step further. If 76.40% takes place, 37 pips has to add to 131 to make a total of 168 pips run. It's about 84 pips a day. based on the Aussie's daily range, this is not out of the question.
daddybearforex. com
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