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  • #341
  • Jan 15, 2013 6:16am Jan 15, 2013 6:16am
Quoting delpiero
Why do you ise graphics? This iş not technical guys.
in the long run, technical trading is favored over news trading . the sudden downwards movement was because of the Econ Min of Japan. Just like the NFP and etc, the market reacts suddenly but overtime it will follow the techs. its always worked for me, IMO
  • #342
  • Edited 6:37am Jan 15, 2013 6:24am | Edited 6:37am
That is correct. Yet, you can earn much more playing the price action. Only because if you play the long term, you will end up having an avg of -50 point draw down. Which has half the daily range of eur/jpy. ALL of the professional traders, have made hundreds of millions OVERNIGHT. Playing price action of a news release. Why shouldn't be model our trading the same way?
  • #343
  • Jan 15, 2013 6:25am Jan 15, 2013 6:25am
Quoting 4rextrader
in the long run, technical trading is favored over news trading . the sudden downwards movement was because of the Econ Min of Japan. Just like the NFP and etc, the market reacts suddenly but overtime it will follow the techs. its always worked for me, IMO
news can only change the short term direction of an instrument it won't change the trend.
It works till it doesn't
  • #344
  • Jan 15, 2013 6:54am Jan 15, 2013 6:54am
Here is 4 hours of progress from the last 1hour chart I posted... Do you see what the price did when it rebroke the low of the FIRST candle which closed across the 123.6

Also look at how it closed over the 223.6 and once it recrossed the very same fib, it started this reversal we see now..

The trend is still down, but 60+ points on a reversal is A LOT OF POINTS. Why pass up on them?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: neweurjpy.PNG Size: 38 KB
  • #345
  • Jan 15, 2013 6:59am Jan 15, 2013 6:59am
you are right but you miss something: you are not trading now according to trend, you are buying because of news, because Abe will weaken Yen right?

Think that he is going to apply his mentioned plan, what will USA do? do you think they will watch or weaken dollar more?
  • #346
  • Jan 15, 2013 7:25am Jan 15, 2013 7:25am
Quoting delpiero
you are right but you miss something: you are not trading now according to trend, you are buying because of news, because Abe will weaken Yen right?

Think that he is going to apply his mentioned plan, what will USA do? do you think they will watch or weaken dollar more?
Not at all, look at the higher TF's the trend is up, the news added fuel to the moves but the trend is definitely up, that's why your seeing crazy shakeouts like last night night.
It works till it doesn't
  • #347
  • Jan 15, 2013 7:43am Jan 15, 2013 7:43am
Quoting DaEdge
Not at all, look at the higher TF's the trend is up, the news added fuel to the moves but the trend is definitely up, that's why your seeing crazy shakeouts like last night night.


I see that you are sure of yourself. Actually I entered this pair after I saw your messege. I got around 800 pips so I am happy. I also wish this to continue but its complicated. Where will it go? Do you think it will go to 130s if Abe's policy is supported by BOJ?
  • #348
  • Jan 15, 2013 7:45am Jan 15, 2013 7:45am
Well actually I am playing the price action. I simply plug in my fibs, and enter either long or short based on the formation + the fib level which was just crossed. Allow me to link my account, so you can see my trades for the day.
  • #349
  • Jan 15, 2013 8:00am Jan 15, 2013 8:00am
Quoting delpiero
I see that you are sure of yourself. Actually I entered this pair after I saw your messege. I got around 800 pips so I am happy. I also wish this to continue but its complicated. Where will it go? Do you think it will go to 130s if Abe's policy is supported by BOJ?
Volatility has drastically increased so there's going to be major shakeouts along the way similar to last night and the beginning of last week there was one as well, this is a mix of profit taking, stop running & repositioning. The free ride on this one is over IMO, if your going to get long your going long at these levels your going to need to do it on situations like this where theres a fast heavy selloff, and your going to need a larger stop to give the trade room to breathe. This trade is starting to get crowded so the big guys will try to flush out the weak hands. I'm looking for 124/5 in the next few weeks. Based on what I see around that area I will make a decision on whether close my position & look for much lower entries to get long again or step aside & wait for a short entry to be confirmed. Congrats on the 800 pips its been an amazing ride so far.
It works till it doesn't
  • #350
  • Jan 15, 2013 1:30pm Jan 15, 2013 1:30pm
Quoting DaEdge
Volatility has drastically increased so there's going to be major shakeouts along the way similar to last night and the beginning of last week there was one as well, this is a mix of profit taking, stop running & repositioning. The free ride on this one is over IMO, if your going to get long your going long at these levels your going to need to do it on situations like this where theres a fast heavy selloff, and your going to need a larger stop to give the trade room to breathe. This trade is starting to get crowded so the big guys will try to flush...
Hello DaEdge. On avg what is your stop loss per position?
  • #351
  • Jan 15, 2013 2:45pm Jan 15, 2013 2:45pm
If we break and close on the hourly, I see 117.62 as the next level, then possibly a nice fall. I'm currently short.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aua12.gif Size: 17 KB
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #352
  • Jan 15, 2013 3:21pm Jan 15, 2013 3:21pm
The candle which has a 1 next to it is the most important candle as of right now. Do you see the lowest low of that candle? (117.803) That will be the BREAKOUT price for the next wave down. Only, because that candle was the first one to close across the 223.6 fib level on my chart. The last 10 hours after chart, has been considered "Accumulation" to SWINGERS. Yet, to scalper it has been a dream come true. A buy order at this current moment would be the wise position. The buy order should have a stop loss of 117.803 as we wait for the 1h to turn back into a bull trend. (It would be marked with blue dots on my chart) Until that happens, we will have a sideways formation at these levels at the 223.6 fib level.

Although most people like yourself are short. I would take the profit here, and just set the pending sell at 117.803 Although I have not explained my system in detail. I use the actual fib levels, (the high and low of the first cross) as my point of entry. Please look at my trades today which have resulted in a 90% profit turn over.

Please not for those who like the buy position. Although I would recommend buying here, your actual breakout price would be the Highest high of the red candle marked number one. You can see we retested it, only to be rejected, yet that is your breakout. As of now eur/jpy is in a sideways formation in which it is bear bias! For the bears the next tp is 117.318
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur_jpy_end_of_day.PNG Size: 45 KB
  • #353
  • Jan 15, 2013 3:25pm Jan 15, 2013 3:25pm
The following is a chart of the MOVE UP! Please not how the price breaks the fib (123.6 223.6 323.6 423.6 523.6). Then how once the high of the first fib cross is BROKEN, the price ALWAYS moves up to the next level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: moveup.PNG Size: 46 KB
  • #354
  • Jan 15, 2013 4:00pm Jan 15, 2013 4:00pm
we just in the past few hours tested the 1 hr support level on ej 117.6230 and it hasn't broken. I would say we are in a somewhat of a tight range, between 117.6230 and 119.952. nonetheless, I believe we are still very much bullish and could a break the 1hr resistance 119.952 within the next few days. This would take us ito 123 and further into this year eventually to the monthly resistance point of 139.2100 (Fib 100). The monthly trade hasn't confirmed yet, but so far this is what I am leaning towards.
  • #355
  • Jan 15, 2013 4:07pm Jan 15, 2013 4:07pm
I've got my stop at 118.22 for my short, and a long entry order at 118.35
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #356
  • Jan 15, 2013 4:40pm Jan 15, 2013 4:40pm
To BellaVista. Just joined this forum and very much interested in your price action approach. After having tried many systems, approaches, strategies...I am focussing on price action again and that's why I was interrested in your analysis.
On EURJPY 1H, I have drawn Fibs from 113.533 which I find is a pertinent level right now on this pair. This was confirmed to me by the convergence of the 23.6% and 38.2% retracement levels and two S/R lines that I had drawn before at 118.57 and 117.62. Looks like the market is consolidating at a three o'clock angle in that range for now. I would buy or sale these levels right now with thights stops, as a range trading strategy.
I still think that we are in a bull trend overall, but am slightly concerned with the M configuration at the top of the chart, as it could be a sign of a reversal. What is your take on this?[IMG]http://www.tradingview.com/e/uUp0mwWU/[/IMG]
  • #357
  • Jan 15, 2013 4:53pm Jan 15, 2013 4:53pm
Quoting bogus
I've got my stop at 118.22 for my short, and a long entry order at 118.35
Taken a partial profit at 117.75
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #358
  • Jan 15, 2013 4:57pm Jan 15, 2013 4:57pm
EU has to get past 1.33, then support at 1.3283 and uj has support at 88.33.
I'll be watching those levels to move my stop down tight on ey.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #359
  • Jan 15, 2013 5:02pm Jan 15, 2013 5:02pm
Quoting 4rextrader
we just in the past few hours tested the 1 hr support level on ej 117.6230 and it hasn't broken. I would say we are in a somewhat of a tight range, between 117.6230 and 119.952. nonetheless, I believe we are still very much bullish and could a break the 1hr resistance 119.952 within the next few days. This would take us ito 123 and further into this year eventually to the monthly resistance point of 139.2100 (Fib 100). The monthly trade hasn't confirmed yet, but so far this is what I am leaning towards.
Hello. Thank you for sharing your D.D. (Due diligence). Would you please be as kind to post your chart? As I would be interested to see where you have made your fib connections.
  • #360
  • Jan 15, 2013 5:04pm Jan 15, 2013 5:04pm
Quoting bogus
Taken a partial profit at 117.75
Excellent job!
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