Dislikedand now on it from below
damn it, had my TP set to 3307, missed by a mere 2 pipsIgnored
- #16,287
- Edited 3:01pm Jan 15, 2013 2:15pm | Edited 3:01pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2010 | 14,361 Posts
so far so good - waiting for daily roll - will revisit 3306
wave structure points to lower targets
) but looking at the chart with ATR and fib we could see 3240 even 3180, but lets see the daily close.Analysis can also be found on my FOREX BLOG for ex YU traders.
- #16,290
- Jan 15, 2013 3:52pm Jan 15, 2013 3:52pm
Thanks Tarantula 
I realise the following comment is not that related to intraday stuff but I think it provides a sound background in forming a bias going forward. That is positioning. Normally a lot of noise but at extremes it is imperitive one takes notice I beleive. Case in point I have just got some positioining info from a certain German bank. Makes interesting reading, EUR/USD has switched to long for the first time in almost two years and Kiwi , Looney and Aussie are at long levels not seen since beginning of March 2012.... look what happened after that. For me this spells potential higher drift in the EUR/USD (as the conversion process of longs reaches the CME retail players - they are flat ATM) and an un-wind of the "safety trades" namely AUD/USD and Kiwi lower. (Disclosure: I am short Kiwi, long AUD knock out puts, and Long EUR/CHF) Cheers and great thread by the way.
I realise the following comment is not that related to intraday stuff but I think it provides a sound background in forming a bias going forward. That is positioning. Normally a lot of noise but at extremes it is imperitive one takes notice I beleive. Case in point I have just got some positioining info from a certain German bank. Makes interesting reading, EUR/USD has switched to long for the first time in almost two years and Kiwi , Looney and Aussie are at long levels not seen since beginning of March 2012.... look what happened after that. For me this spells potential higher drift in the EUR/USD (as the conversion process of longs reaches the CME retail players - they are flat ATM) and an un-wind of the "safety trades" namely AUD/USD and Kiwi lower. (Disclosure: I am short Kiwi, long AUD knock out puts, and Long EUR/CHF) Cheers and great thread by the way.
- #16,294
- Jan 15, 2013 6:37pm Jan 15, 2013 6:37pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2010 | 14,361 Posts
thanks buddy... for any of your lower targets to hit we need a close below 3250... now this is the first time we hit that cluster at 1.3250-1.3280... Tokyo saw 1.34.... london and NY haven't touched 1.34 yet.... and we have one crazy up bar from last week... so i favour another high. 1.3422-30 at least before a bigger correction... unless market chooses to play games until Friday then shoot up like some crazy biatch... at the moment its hit and run..
BTW T, when you get a chance would be good to get your insight on taking salary from markets.....
Ill PM you these days.
- #16,296
- Edited 7:07pm Jan 15, 2013 6:45pm | Edited 7:07pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2010 | 14,361 Posts
Thanks Tarantula
I realise the following comment is not that related to intraday stuff but I think it provides a sound background in forming a bias going forward. That is positioning. Normally a lot of noise but at extremes it is imperitive one takes notice I beleive. Case in point I have just got some positioining info from a certain German bank. Makes interesting reading, EUR/USD has switched to long for the first time in almost two years and Kiwi , Looney and Aussie are at long levels not seen since beginning of March 2012.......
I would lie if I say i know a lot about that. I personally almost never read any news except major ones and I never have any bias, I always chart and trade what I see on charts. Believe me, sometimes I ignore those classic major news also ( except repo rate, NFP and stress test).But those infos u posted above can help a lot if they prove to be good.
- #16,297
- Edited 9:18pm Jan 15, 2013 8:56pm | Edited 9:18pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2010 | 14,361 Posts
Here is the analysis for 16th of January:
The market has already reached our Target zone and now we need to see a slight pullback in order to sell it again. At this point I see 2 scenarios.1st scenario is to wait for a pullback to 3320-30 and sell it with stops at 3362 aiming for 3260 and 3240 and 2nd possibility is to enter a long trade around 3240-3220 and aim for 3300-20 with stops at 3207. I have also marked those on chart where we could have seen a nice consolidation before moving up.
The deepest PB is around 3180 where we have a confluence of natural s/r level (80s) and 61.8 fib retracement. That is a good level to scalp the trade, almost blindly but only if there is not a very strong NEWS driven momentum.
This article can be also read on my FOREX BLOG
The market has already reached our Target zone and now we need to see a slight pullback in order to sell it again. At this point I see 2 scenarios.1st scenario is to wait for a pullback to 3320-30 and sell it with stops at 3362 aiming for 3260 and 3240 and 2nd possibility is to enter a long trade around 3240-3220 and aim for 3300-20 with stops at 3207. I have also marked those on chart where we could have seen a nice consolidation before moving up.
The deepest PB is around 3180 where we have a confluence of natural s/r level (80s) and 61.8 fib retracement. That is a good level to scalp the trade, almost blindly but only if there is not a very strong NEWS driven momentum.
This article can be also read on my FOREX BLOG
