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  • #16,281
  • Jan 15, 2013 6:11am Jan 15, 2013 6:11am
Quoting infinitus
and now on it from below



damn it, had my TP set to 3307, missed by a mere 2 pips
This should go to 3260 by tomorrow if not today if its capped below 3350. I think that we will see some profit taking of last week bulls so that should bring us right to the target zone.
  • #16,282
  • Jan 15, 2013 6:35am Jan 15, 2013 6:35am
Quoting T@rantula
This should go to 3260 by tomorrow if not today if its capped below 3350. I think that we will see some profit taking of last week bulls so that should bring us right to the target zone.
had my TP's clustered between 3307 and 3245

I do rearrange that now to 3283, 3275, 3260, 3245
  • #16,283
  • Jan 15, 2013 6:39am Jan 15, 2013 6:39am
Quoting infinitus
had my TP's clustered between 3307 and 3245

I do rearrange that now to 3283, 3275, 3260, 3245
That is completely technically valid if some unexpected movement doesnt occur.
  • #16,284
  • Jan 15, 2013 7:21am Jan 15, 2013 7:21am
For bearish retracement to succeed EU needs to be below 3350. After hitting our target zone today 3325-05 it reversed. Its very hard that we are gonna see 3260 today at this point. 3295 maybe is the best case for bears today but only if we see another retest of daily lows.

The price will resume bullish trend only if it clearly breaks 3405.
  • #16,285
  • Jan 15, 2013 11:33am Jan 15, 2013 11:33am
Quoting T@rantula
Hi guys, my inet connection was down so I couldnt post and make charts. But now we see that it has happened.

As I told u yesterday break of 3336 got the price in our target zone 3325-05, but that target zone was YESTERDAY's target zone so based on some calculations of ATR and H4 patterns 3295 and 3260 are targets fir this retracements.

Quoting T@rantula
This should go to 3260 by tomorrow if not today if its capped below 3350. I think that we will see some profit taking of last week bulls so that should bring us right to the target zone.
Quoting T@rantula
Yes 3300 is a psych level and we have 3295 there. Based on fibs and your ABCD it can happen that we go there later today. 3211 I dont see it today, only at the break of 3260.

Also caution is advised as we are still in uptrend so retracement trades should be played out with good MM.
And it has come!! Finally.

The target has been hit, I have patiently waited for that, although I thought it might have come tomorrow. 3265 has been hit!
  • #16,286
  • Jan 15, 2013 12:07pm Jan 15, 2013 12:07pm
Quoting infinitus
had my TP's clustered between 3307 and 3245

I do rearrange that now to 3283, 3275, 3260, 3245


so far so good - waiting for daily roll - will revisit 3306

wave structure points to lower targets
  • #16,287
  • Edited 1:01pm Jan 15, 2013 12:15pm | Edited 1:01pm
Quoting infinitus
so far so good - waiting for daily roll - will revisit 3306

wave structure points to lower targets
Exactly mate. Im not into waves ( thats what I have you for ) but looking at the chart with ATR and fib we could see 3240 even 3180, but lets see the daily close.

Analysis can also be found on my FOREX BLOG for ex YU traders.
  • #16,288
  • Jan 15, 2013 12:32pm Jan 15, 2013 12:32pm
Quoting jaylovin
This is a potential AB=CD move... there are obstacles though 3292 and the cluster from 3250 to 3280...trend still up... violent moves up generally have sharp and fast corrections... this looks like one in happening as we speak... i will wait to buy in the cluster lower down... 3250-3280... i will try to get more precise entries.. my levels are coming up as 3280, 3295... close below 3250 culd bring us down to 3211... i don't see this happening currently..
This i also like. Nice work Jay.
  • #16,289
  • Jan 15, 2013 1:23pm Jan 15, 2013 1:23pm
Quoting T@rantula
This i also like. Nice work Jay.

thanks buddy... for any of your lower targets to hit we need a close below 3250... now this is the first time we hit that cluster at 1.3250-1.3280... Tokyo saw 1.34.... london and NY haven't touched 1.34 yet.... and we have one crazy up bar from last week... so i favour another high. 1.3422-30 at least before a bigger correction... unless market chooses to play games until Friday then shoot up like some crazy biatch... at the moment its hit and run..

BTW T, when you get a chance would be good to get your insight on taking salary from markets.. any guidlines etc would be helpful
  • #16,290
  • Jan 15, 2013 1:52pm Jan 15, 2013 1:52pm
Thanks Tarantula
I realise the following comment is not that related to intraday stuff but I think it provides a sound background in forming a bias going forward. That is positioning. Normally a lot of noise but at extremes it is imperitive one takes notice I beleive. Case in point I have just got some positioining info from a certain German bank. Makes interesting reading, EUR/USD has switched to long for the first time in almost two years and Kiwi , Looney and Aussie are at long levels not seen since beginning of March 2012.... look what happened after that. For me this spells potential higher drift in the EUR/USD (as the conversion process of longs reaches the CME retail players - they are flat ATM) and an un-wind of the "safety trades" namely AUD/USD and Kiwi lower. (Disclosure: I am short Kiwi, long AUD knock out puts, and Long EUR/CHF) Cheers and great thread by the way.
  • #16,291
  • Jan 15, 2013 2:52pm Jan 15, 2013 2:52pm
Murrey Math and levels for Wednesday
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  • #16,292
  • Jan 15, 2013 3:15pm Jan 15, 2013 3:15pm
Virgin POC at 3336
  • #16,293
  • Jan 15, 2013 4:09pm Jan 15, 2013 4:09pm
i will be bold now and say if 1.3263 isn't taken out we can potentially head up to 1.3414 now... I AM NOT TRADING THIS... would like to see if i am right or wrong.. nothing more
  • #16,294
  • Jan 15, 2013 4:37pm Jan 15, 2013 4:37pm
Quoting jaylovin
thanks buddy... for any of your lower targets to hit we need a close below 3250... now this is the first time we hit that cluster at 1.3250-1.3280... Tokyo saw 1.34.... london and NY haven't touched 1.34 yet.... and we have one crazy up bar from last week... so i favour another high. 1.3422-30 at least before a bigger correction... unless market chooses to play games until Friday then shoot up like some crazy biatch... at the moment its hit and run..

BTW T, when you get a chance would be good to get your insight on taking salary from markets.....
Yes 3240 needs to be broken, that is important point- 3240. As for taking salary I have my methods how I do it Ill PM you these days.
  • #16,295
  • Jan 15, 2013 4:37pm Jan 15, 2013 4:37pm
Quoting infinitus
Murrey Math and levels for Wednesday
Thanks very much m8!
  • #16,296
  • Edited 5:07pm Jan 15, 2013 4:45pm | Edited 5:07pm
Quoting Hyperion
Thanks Tarantula
I realise the following comment is not that related to intraday stuff but I think it provides a sound background in forming a bias going forward. That is positioning. Normally a lot of noise but at extremes it is imperitive one takes notice I beleive. Case in point I have just got some positioining info from a certain German bank. Makes interesting reading, EUR/USD has switched to long for the first time in almost two years and Kiwi , Looney and Aussie are at long levels not seen since beginning of March 2012.......
Interesting point of view. That info can be applied to positional trading and it can be used in conjuction with technicals. I support that as long as that makes money.
I would lie if I say i know a lot about that. I personally almost never read any news except major ones and I never have any bias, I always chart and trade what I see on charts. Believe me, sometimes I ignore those classic major news also ( except repo rate, NFP and stress test).But those infos u posted above can help a lot if they prove to be good.
  • #16,297
  • Edited 7:18pm Jan 15, 2013 6:56pm | Edited 7:18pm
Here is the analysis for 16th of January:

The market has already reached our Target zone and now we need to see a slight pullback in order to sell it again. At this point I see 2 scenarios.1st scenario is to wait for a pullback to 3320-30 and sell it with stops at 3362 aiming for 3260 and 3240 and 2nd possibility is to enter a long trade around 3240-3220 and aim for 3300-20 with stops at 3207. I have also marked those on chart where we could have seen a nice consolidation before moving up.

The deepest PB is around 3180 where we have a confluence of natural s/r level (80s) and 61.8 fib retracement. That is a good level to scalp the trade, almost blindly but only if there is not a very strong NEWS driven momentum.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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This article can be also read on my FOREX BLOG
  • #16,298
  • Jan 16, 2013 12:25am Jan 16, 2013 12:25am
Might be useful ...........
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  • #16,299
  • Jan 16, 2013 12:33am Jan 16, 2013 12:33am
Now we shall test the red channel, after we fought hard about the (lost) blue chanel yesterday?

red channel comes in at around 3201
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  • #16,300
  • Jan 16, 2013 12:36am Jan 16, 2013 12:36am
3230 we have EMA 234 coming it at 1h TF - should give reaction
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