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  • #2,661
  • Jan 15, 2013 4:56am Jan 15, 2013 4:56am
Quoting Crassius
Possible count... but looking weak....

I'm flat if 1.3335 breaks by more than a few pips.... Will look lower to 3310, even better would be 3380/60 zone talked about here:

Here's the pattern...

Wave e will sometimes extend and actually make a false break of the base line.....
Attached Image
  • #2,662
  • Jan 15, 2013 5:19am Jan 15, 2013 5:19am
Quoting Crassius

Wave e will sometimes extend and actually make a false break of the base line.....
Widened my stop by a few... only a few... to allow for false break of Wave e.... Have to let it go then....

Spain at risk of down grade as I type.... F'ing news/data flow has been against this trade all day ;(
  • #2,663
  • Jan 15, 2013 5:42am Jan 15, 2013 5:42am
hang in there be good to see a breakout of 1.3390 area upwards

Quoting Crassius
Widened my stop by a few... only a few... to allow for false break of Wave e.... Have to let it go then....

Spain at risk of down grade as I type.... F'ing news/data flow has been against this trade all day ;(
Tracking the Specialists.
  • #2,664
  • Jan 15, 2013 5:46am Jan 15, 2013 5:46am
Some important words regarding Wave e of triangles... which we may be in.... From Robert Prechter's excellent book....
Attached Image
  • #2,665
  • Jan 15, 2013 5:52am Jan 15, 2013 5:52am
Also can note the Time Frame of the Breakout of the possible Triangle: The ideal breakout point occurs 1/2 to 3/4 of the way through the pattern's development or time-span. A break before the 1/2 way point might be premature and a break too close to the apex may be insignificant.
Tracking the Specialists.
  • #2,666
  • Jan 15, 2013 5:59am Jan 15, 2013 5:59am
Just got filled on my highest USDJPY long order.... @ 88.30

Expecting pull back could go much deeper, but this pair has been bottoming in a shallow manner the whole run up, just missing my entry orders.... took a small position at the top of my buy zone... will add much lower if necessary, but I expect the BOJ won't allow it to go all the way to the usual retrace target near the bottom of prior Wave 4 of one lesser degree...
  • #2,667
  • Jan 15, 2013 6:10am Jan 15, 2013 6:10am
Still alive... this is either the overshoot of Wave e or the beginning of a breakdown to the 3310/00 area at least... fingers crossed for the overshoot scenario....
  • #2,668
  • Jan 15, 2013 6:25am Jan 15, 2013 6:25am
Quoting Crassius
Just got filled on my highest USDJPY long order.... @ 88.30

Stop loss set 87.80, beyond support band ahead of 88.00, and below prior basing channel top.

If stopped out will look to reload much lower... better to let it go...
  • #2,669
  • Jan 15, 2013 6:36am Jan 15, 2013 6:36am
Stopped out... larger correction underway to at least 3300.... I prefer buying 3280/50 zone as discussed here... big bounce from the 3300 figure may tempt me in...

Quoting Crassius
What I mean by this is illustrated in the attached chart... ..
  • #2,670
  • Jan 15, 2013 7:14am Jan 15, 2013 7:14am
Fib level 23.6 held tight on the EU daily
Tracking the Specialists.
  • #2,671
  • Jan 15, 2013 7:21am Jan 15, 2013 7:21am
Quoting Connected
Fib level 23.6 held tight on the EU daily
At this point I can't see an Elliott count that would indicate the end of correction yet....

Most obvious count puts only three waves of C complete... wave 4 of C forming now (We trade 1.3328).... then need one more push lower to put in wave 5 of C...

I need to let the chart draw some more bars to clarify the picture on EURUSD for now....
  • #2,672
  • Jan 15, 2013 7:57am Jan 15, 2013 7:57am
Quoting Crassius
need to let the chart draw some more bars to clarify the picture on EURUSD
Sitting tight on EU and looking forward to New York open after mixed US data
Tracking the Specialists.
  • #2,673
  • Jan 15, 2013 8:45am Jan 15, 2013 8:45am
5 and 15 year seasonal charts show further decline

http://www.ccstrade.com/im/chart_sea...ity=XHIGH;nc=1
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  • #2,674
  • Jan 15, 2013 8:57am Jan 15, 2013 8:57am
Layering buy limit orders between 3310 and 3280 for an average basis of 3295, stop below 3240...

If ending diagonal forming, will be an explosive move upward from its terminus that should eventually lie in the that zone. Ending diagonal is only pattern that can account for the overlapping price action in probable wave C.... It allows for an overlapping wave 4....

Massive support lies near 3250..

Diagram is of ending diagonal in wave 5 of impulse (with the trend), but they also occur in wave C of ABC corrections...
Attached Image
  • #2,675
  • Jan 15, 2013 9:06am Jan 15, 2013 9:06am
Shorting NZDUSD current levels 8380 layered back to the 8400 figure...
  • #2,676
  • Jan 15, 2013 9:36am Jan 15, 2013 9:36am
Quoting Crassius
Shorting NZDUSD current levels 8380 layered back to the 8400 figure...
Unfilled NZDUSD orders cancelled... going with the load I have so far....

Looking as low as 8345... will take some off earlier and move stop to BE...
  • #2,677
  • Jan 15, 2013 9:42am Jan 15, 2013 9:42am
Quoting Crassius
Just got filled on my highest USDJPY long order.... @ 88.30

Closed half of this at 88.90 +60 pips... leaving the rest as is... free trade +10 pips if I don't move my stop loss up... Risk of return to entry point is high... even lower is also likely as this entry was at the very top of the likely buy zone...
  • #2,678
  • Jan 15, 2013 10:01am Jan 15, 2013 10:01am
Quoting Crassius
Closed half of this at 88.90 +60 pips... ..

Pulling the stop loss up to BE 89.30.... looks like USDJPY is best counted as five down... means deeper losses than my entry.... target on the last half remaining lowered to 89.10
  • #2,679
  • Jan 15, 2013 10:04am Jan 15, 2013 10:04am
nice trade Crassius also your EW charts have me interested, I need to sit down and read Robert Prechter...

Quoting Crassius
Closed half of this at 88.90 +60 pips... leaving the rest as is... free trade +10 pips if I don't move my stop loss up... Risk of return to entry point is high... even lower is also likely as this entry was at the very top of the likely buy zone...
Tracking the Specialists.
  • #2,680
  • Jan 15, 2013 10:11am Jan 15, 2013 10:11am
Quoting Connected
nice trade Crassius also your EW charts have me interested, I need to sit down and read Robert Prechter...

Its good stuff.... I was avoiding Elliott Wave for the longest time because it can be so subjective, and you can't back-test to see any kind of quantifiable results... but over the years it has gone from a tool to decide long term trend bias to my primary method... takes a while to be able to do it live on an unfolding chart as small as the H1... which means you are looking much much smaller time frame for interior waves... and I still have much to learn.

Anyway... It is worth looking into.. in the end we all must find our own way...
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