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AUD/USD

  • #57,361
  • Jan 10, 2013 5:59pm Jan 10, 2013 5:59pm
AUD 1.06 is the key pivot for the moonshot to 1.10 and beyond.

Real money players looking good as they are sapping up yield and now capital gain on ccy.

Speculative money isnt onboard..

Key signs were 3 bad days of bad Australian Data and it held firm and once China chucked in a fudge one it motored north.

Today being friday many will take their foot off the gas and 1.06 being crucial its a brave punter to believe its on before the weekend.

Also with USD/JPY move seeing some PT in AUD/JPY.

Good luck and happy hunting
  • #57,362
  • Jan 10, 2013 6:03pm Jan 10, 2013 6:03pm
Spec's not onboard??? Where are you see that?
Mrs Watenabe (Japanese house wives) are long to the gunnals AUD/JPY as per stats on the TFX as are Long Only Specs as quoted by CFTC.
  • #57,363
  • Jan 10, 2013 7:38pm Jan 10, 2013 7:38pm
Since price is above the circle, I think price could be making new highs at least from September's high to maybe Feb's high of last year. About 1.062~ - 1.085~.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Play the players, not the cards.
  • #57,364
  • Jan 10, 2013 7:39pm Jan 10, 2013 7:39pm
Quoting lasty
AUD 1.06 is the key pivot for the moonshot to 1.10 and beyond.

Real money players looking good as they are sapping up yield and now capital gain on ccy.

.............Speculative money isnt onboard.......

Good luck and happy hunting
Nothing has change, still the same

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  • #57,365
  • Jan 13, 2013 4:45pm Jan 13, 2013 4:45pm
Heh!, New Moon efefct last Friday workin well, am only short Kiwi though. I like more upside in EUR/AUD cross.
  • #57,366
  • Jan 13, 2013 4:59pm Jan 13, 2013 4:59pm
this could be a turn off

China's unexpected surge in exports last month renewed concern from analysts at Goldman Sachs, UBS and ANZ that statistics from the nation can be unreliable.


The 14.1 per cent jump from a year earlier was the biggest positive surprise since March 2011, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The increase didn't match goods movements through ports and imports by trading partners according to UBS, while Goldman Sachs and Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd. cited a divergence from overseas orders in a manufacturing index.


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/world...#ixzz2Htolnk8j

  • #57,367
  • Jan 13, 2013 5:09pm Jan 13, 2013 5:09pm
Hmmm, I am extremely bullish China and don't give a hoot about the volatility / creditworthyness of their numbers. The consumption projections over the next few years are staggering and I don't think the West fully understands the internal dynamics of the country. They need to build 90 more subways over the next five years for a start. That's right 90!... HOWEVER as bullish as I am about them, I am bearish the AUD/USD still and while many will see that as illogical (we all know the co-relations) it might pan out the way I think. The long only exposure which is at extreme levels cannot all be rewarded, the markets don't work that way. If/when we do get a downside suprise in the AUD don't get me wrong, I will be filling my boots on the long side.
  • #57,368
  • Jan 13, 2013 5:15pm Jan 13, 2013 5:15pm
Quoting Hyperion
Hmmm, I am extremely bullish China and don't give a hoot about the volatility / creditworthyness of their numbers. The consumption projections over the next few years are staggering and I don't think the West fully understands the internal dynamics of the country. They need to build 90 more subways over the next five years for a start. That's right 90!... HOWEVER as bullish as I am about them, I am bearish the AUD/USD still and while many will see that as illogical (we all know the co-relations) it might pan out the way I think. The long...
bearish on short term but bullish on long term?
  • #57,369
  • Jan 13, 2013 5:20pm Jan 13, 2013 5:20pm
I guess but for me it's less about timeframes and more about levels.
e.g. I am bearish between about 10500 to 10600 and bullish between 9700 and 10200.
Last two years have shown those levels to be the supply and demand zones and thanks to Bernake and others the vol has gone and these are the boring ranges we are left with. Last TWO years the AUD has opened and closed the 12 months within about 30ticks...
  • #57,370
  • Jan 13, 2013 5:56pm Jan 13, 2013 5:56pm
Looks like a/u has just bounced off support at 1.0527
I'm flat a/u.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #57,371
  • Jan 13, 2013 7:51pm Jan 13, 2013 7:51pm
Currently long on this pair. Looking for it to move back up toward the 1.06 spot of resistance.
"If you won't risk the usual, you'll have to settle for the ordinary."
  • #57,372
  • Jan 13, 2013 11:22pm Jan 13, 2013 11:22pm
Range should increase this week
  • #57,373
  • Jan 14, 2013 12:21am Jan 14, 2013 12:21am
aussie should not be trading more than 1.04 imho with all the bad data released since past 2 weeks
  • #57,374
  • Jan 14, 2013 12:24am Jan 14, 2013 12:24am
Quoting Nachiket
aussie should not be trading more than 1.04 imho with all the bad data released since past 2 weeks
Current rate is always right not 2 pips off.. How can you say that? Remember china has picked up and smart money somehow knew this in oct 2012 otherwise It would have fell below parity then.

Here's a hint think future not present
  • #57,375
  • Jan 14, 2013 10:44pm Jan 14, 2013 10:44pm
A chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #57,376
  • Jan 15, 2013 2:15pm Jan 15, 2013 2:15pm
Just got some positioining info from a certain German bank. Makes interesting reading, EUR/USD has switched to long for the first time in almost two years and Kiwi , Looney and Aussie are at long levels not seen since beginning of March 2012.... look what happened after that. (Disclosure: I am short Kiwi, long AUD knock out puts, and Long EUR/CHF) Cheers
  • #57,377
  • Jan 15, 2013 2:22pm Jan 15, 2013 2:22pm
Quoting Hyperion
Just got some positioining info from a certain German bank. Makes interesting reading, EUR/USD has switched to long for the first time in almost two years and Kiwi , Looney and Aussie are at long levels not seen since beginning of March 2012.... look what happened after that. (Disclosure: I am short Kiwi, long AUD knock out puts, and Long EUR/CHF) Cheers
Long EUR? i dont believe it ... with all the crisis is going on around the world? my short on AUD just got stopped out.
Whatever is happening right now has happened before and will happen again.
  • #57,378
  • Jan 15, 2013 2:23pm Jan 15, 2013 2:23pm
And i am still holding my short position on EUR.
Whatever is happening right now has happened before and will happen again.
  • #57,379
  • Jan 15, 2013 2:34pm Jan 15, 2013 2:34pm
I don't believe in a short trade on EUR/USD, main trend is still up, but you can get pips playing the retracement:

http://img15.imageshack.us/img15/5313/76564412.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
  • #57,380
  • Jan 15, 2013 3:01pm Jan 15, 2013 3:01pm
Updated chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aua1.gif Size: 23 KB
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
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