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  • #2,641
  • Edited 8:55am Jan 11, 2013 8:54am | Edited 8:55am
I foinally got a small USDJPY position in play at 88.90... by starting to layer porders into my buy zone... This pair is so manipulated by the BOJ right now it never retraces fully to common fib targets... I have been just missing entires that last 400 pips....

Breaking out now in its wave 5...

Profit target to take 100% off at 89.80....
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  • #2,642
  • Jan 11, 2013 9:00am Jan 11, 2013 9:00am
Quoting Crassius

However, US stocks may well be topping and due for a serious pullback. That would bring Euro right back down again..

S&P plunging right now.... just got caught by the Kijun on the hourly...

Today or early next week we start a 5% correction...
  • #2,643
  • Jan 11, 2013 9:05am Jan 11, 2013 9:05am
Quoting Crassius

Cross market, the moves yesterday seems to point to an even lower DXY before it turns... this seem to bolster the case for a stronger Euro in the coming days...

.

This move is now complete... DXY heads higher in a final move next week, pressuring none USD pairs, then it falls out of bed for a while....

That fall out of bed will help EURUSD make it to its peak the first half of 2013 (if not the whole year) near 1.3800....

And then it falls like a rock.....
  • #2,644
  • Jan 11, 2013 9:20am Jan 11, 2013 9:20am
Quoting Crassius
I foinally got a small USDJPY position in play at 88.90... ..

Stop moved up to 88.70...
  • #2,645
  • Jan 11, 2013 10:11am Jan 11, 2013 10:11am
Quoting Crassius
Stop moved up to 88.70...

Stop moved to BE at 88.90 trades 89.10 after being as low as 88.87.... and as high s 89.44..... How sucky is that?

The pull back was too deep after putting in a fresh high in a wave 5.... I must limit the risk to BE and try for another entry if stopped out... I'm not willing on a Friday afternoon to go in the red on it...
  • #2,646
  • Jan 11, 2013 11:48am Jan 11, 2013 11:48am
Quoting Crassius
Stop moved to BE at 88.90 trades 89.10 after being as low as 88.87.... and as high s 89.44..... How sucky is that?

The pull back was too deep after putting in a fresh high in a wave 5.... I must limit the risk to BE and try for another entry if stopped out... I'm not willing on a Friday afternoon to go in the red on it...

Closed at 89.20... I'm off for the Week End...
  • #2,647
  • Jan 14, 2013 4:22am Jan 14, 2013 4:22am
I'm on the sidelines of EURUSD at the moment... This is my thinking...

I have a GPBUSD long working that will take some patience, but it is lagging EURUSD and should eventually head higher...

I'm looking to get long EURUSD, but I'm watching price action closely, and looking for a three wave correction to complete before entering...
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  • #2,648
  • Jan 14, 2013 6:55am Jan 14, 2013 6:55am
Quoting Crassius

I'm looking to get long EURUSD, but I'm watching price action closely, and looking for a three wave correction to complete before entering...

Watching this channel bottom for a impulsive looking bounce...

At this point its hard to say if we are at the first three interior waves of a larger three wave correction...

It would be healthy for price to sell off all the way to 3080/50 zone... The only way to tell is to wait for price to tell us by bouncing aggressively from the channel bottom... Only then would I enter... for we may not be done yet... but this is a place to keep a keen eye open..

Edit: sell off to 3280/50
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  • #2,649
  • Edited 7:57am Jan 14, 2013 7:30am | Edited 7:57am
Quoting Crassius

At this point its hard to say if we are at the first three interior waves of a larger three wave correction...

What I mean by this is illustrated in the attached chart... Just because we can see three waves down at very small degree, we can't be sure that is the entire correction... Its shallow... and may not be all there is to come....

We have to be aware of the bigger picture in the attached chart, and wait for price action to tell us if the correction in in fact over, or only on its way...

Breaking out of the channel to the upside in an aggressive way would be impulsive.... everything inside the channel is likely still corrective action of a larger unfolding down move correcting toward 3250...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,650
  • Jan 14, 2013 10:06am Jan 14, 2013 10:06am
Watching for a possible Bullish break out from teh corrective channel and 3390 Wave b High...

USDCHF, the inverse of EURUSD (99.1% Correlation) appears to have already completed its up move, bolstering the possibility that EURUSD has completed its down move and is about to resume the uptrend...

PA will tell us.... Breakout required to get Bullish...
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  • #2,651
  • Jan 14, 2013 2:17pm Jan 14, 2013 2:17pm
Quoting Crassius

USDCHF, the inverse of EURUSD (99.1% Correlation) appears to have already completed its up move,...

Blazing Rally in EURCHF as the artificial floor unwinds drives USDCHF through the roof... and drags EURUSD somewhat higher.... the normally near perfect inverse correlation between USDCHF and EURUSD breaks down....

Scratch any notions that EURUSD future moves might be revealed by USDCHF levels... not today at least
  • #2,652
  • Jan 15, 2013 1:05am Jan 15, 2013 1:05am
Could be a buying opportunity approaching...
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  • #2,653
  • Jan 15, 2013 1:48am Jan 15, 2013 1:48am
Quoting Crassius
Could be a buying opportunity approaching...
Filled small size at 1.3335...

Keeping i small because may be premature.... can add at the figure or even better on an impulsive break higher...
  • #2,654
  • Jan 15, 2013 2:44am Jan 15, 2013 2:44am
The bad economic data from Germany keeps rolling in.....
  • #2,655
  • Jan 15, 2013 2:57am Jan 15, 2013 2:57am
Charts speaks for itself
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  • #2,656
  • Jan 15, 2013 3:00am Jan 15, 2013 3:00am
Looking for a breakout with momentum behind it.... not a creeping probe above....
  • #2,657
  • Jan 15, 2013 3:15am Jan 15, 2013 3:15am
nice thread Crassius thanks for your charts, waiting for this too, will be worthwhile! bit of a shakeout around daily pivot and UK CPI in 15m also

Quoting Crassius
Looking for a breakout with momentum behind it.... not a creeping probe above....
Tracking the Specialists.
  • #2,658
  • Jan 15, 2013 3:17am Jan 15, 2013 3:17am
Quoting Connected
nice thread Crassius

Thanks... sometimes I feel like I am talking to myself in here
  • #2,659
  • Jan 15, 2013 3:30am Jan 15, 2013 3:30am
Quoting Crassius
Filled small size at 1.3335...

Keeping i small because may be premature.... can add at the figure or even better on an impulsive break higher...

Stop loss set just below entry .... If it gets taken out deeper pullback will likely ensue....
  • #2,660
  • Jan 15, 2013 4:50am Jan 15, 2013 4:50am
Possible count... but looking weak....

I'm flat if 1.3335 breaks by more than a few pips.... Will look lower to 3310, even better would be 3380/60 zone talked about here:

EDIT: 3280/50 Zone

Quoting Crassius
What I mean by this is illustrated in the attached chart...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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