Euro/Dollar

The crazy volatility during a Draghi press conference and subsequent breach of common fib relationships in an exagqerated move is the norm, not the exception...

I was not surprised to see 3180 go owing to to risk event increased volatilty, but I was surprised when we exceeded 3225 with gusto, and have remained firm so far well above that resistance... remaining firm aqnd not blowing off at te top as we so often see in a pop move is even more telling.

I have to respect this move, even if it stretched out of normal proportions, helped a lot by the JPY manipulation going on...

There still remains a short term bearish count... there are always multiple ways to count the market, and it is more an exercise in judging the probabilities between the counts... and the counts of related markets... and laying bets based on the probabilities..

For now I would buy a pull back into 3200 ... IF... a strong bounce seemed to also be developing from there...

I am not willing to chase this market any more than I am willing to chase the JPY.... I need to get my entry or stand aside..

Cross market, the moves yesterday seems to point to an even lower DXY before it turns... this seem to bolster the cse for a stronger Euro in the coming days...

However, US stocks may well be topping and due for a serious pullback. That would bring Euro right back down again..

In the meantime, I will simply stand aside and wait for the picture to become more clear...

Scratch that... I'm long now against a tight stop of 3243...

We may not get the pull back.... We are likely in the consolidation before breaking out higher...

GBPUSD has exhibited the normal pullback, but EURUSD seems to be working itself into a triangle to break out higher on very short time frames...

If the triangle fails, a sharp down move into the 38.2 should follow... but if it breaks to the upside, we will never see a deeper pullback than 3250

Waiting for the breakout with a buy stop above 8283 and a stop below 3245 would be a wise way to play this triangle.... stops can be tight either way,

***Edit above 3282

but probably better to let the market confirm its direction with the break out...

I'm in small now, will add on the breakout above 3282

USDJPY coming in to a buy zone...

Not helping EURUSD as it sells off a bit... (EURJPY also weakening)

There are at least two different things you could be talking about in your first question, so I'll just say I don't quite understand.... and not answer.

As to time relationships...

There is no reliable method to use time in forecasting, although Elliott (and others, i.e. Bolton, Prechter) have explored it in relation to EWT...

Elliott observed Fibonacci relationships to time spans of important turning points in the stock market included in the screen shot.

The excellent reliability of properly drawn Elliott Channels have some relationship to time.... and Elliott noted that...

Bolton said something to the effect of...... He wasn't convinced that Fibonacci Time relationships to wave turning points were reliable, but they sure happened more often than they would be chance alone....

Prechter has said something to the effect... If there is a Fibonacci determinant in terms of time as one wave or phase ( Impulsive Phase to Corrective Phase) it is more complex than I can determine.

There is the breakout....

GBPUSD corrected as usual but as I suspected, EURUSD was not going to go lower, but break higher from where it was..

This is the final wave before a larger correction... we are finishing what we started Thursday, because that rise was only to wave 3 top.....

The sideways consolidation we just broke above was wave 4... this is wave 5...

There are sell orders all the way up to 3310..... Buy stops above there will trigger farther advance if the market can trip them...

Mission accomplished

Took some off at 3350 booking partial profits....

Stops moved to 3315 on the rest.... Probably putting in wave 4 from 3350 top for one more push higher into a wave 5 of 5

This is counting on a tiny tiny scale, and hence prone to error... but here's how I'm betting my own money

Stop is 3315

Targets from Fibs are

3365
3388

Stops to 3333

Profit target hit at 3365.... only 25% of position remains in play.... my order is at 3378

stop raised to 3345 or last bit

I can count five ways up already....

Tale a look at GBPUSD... it may follow this move....

Too late in the week for me to play it.... just sayin'

Stopped out on the last bit of EURUSD at 3345...

I'll be looking for a correction in the new week into 3250/75 area to re-load longs....