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The Really Useless Thread

  • #128,421
  • Jan 10, 2013 6:34pm Jan 10, 2013 6:34pm
I had an awesome first trade then gave itall back today... Entered a sh at 1.3165 because we traveled 230 pips.... That along with 434 / 130 / 108 / and a handful of other movements are particularly useful in a counter trade.... I see you have 1.26xx there.... funny... I was just thinking....What if this was just all to go much much deeper.....

Quoting gatorinla

  1. Post# 744,602
  2. Cleanup
  3. Quote
  4. Edit
  5. Jan 10, 2013 4:39pm (1 hr 39 min ago)

...

  • #128,422
  • Jan 10, 2013 7:18pm Jan 10, 2013 7:18pm
Quoting gatorinla
no shit.. i hope the sucker is ok..
probably away on business, but not posted since the 2nd now...
  • #128,423
  • Jan 10, 2013 8:43pm Jan 10, 2013 8:43pm
Hello everybody!
Not all sins are created equal
  • #128,424
  • Jan 10, 2013 9:17pm Jan 10, 2013 9:17pm
Quoting drzakir123
well,with market in trend,i dont think prices reverting to mean is much of help,as poc is nothing but mean of the range.normal curve is very useful if market is random,i.e in consolidation phase and directionless and in this case top will form when buyer done thier purschasing and we wont know that till price spend long time above todays level and generally long term seller wont come in this type of market till we have 500 to 700 pips move and sometime more and that will take time.this market is in control of either long term buyer and long term...


well, a POC is a bit more as a mean of a range. It is the point of control, that means, at that point the most turnover happened. Surely, in strong trending markets, especially with momentum shift, we do not necessarily see a bell shaped distribution curve. Moreover, price often builds a new level of action, and starts to build a bell shaped distribution from there.

When you re-read my analysis, I specified 3183 as a point, most traders today felt was important = thought, that price here had value. So chance is high that this point is revisited again.

With todays POC at 3099, chances are high, that this POC is traded again, since market more seldomly leave such virgin POC untouched. Most of the time virgin POC's are traded again (not to say that that must necessarily happen tomorrow or the day after.

How nice this POC's work you can see by only looking at todays data: 3266 was the POC of 12.31.2012

attached are a few market profiles - make your own conclusion

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: market profilemonthly.jpg Size: 90 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: market profilemonthly all data.jpg Size: 110 KB




Regarding the fake run down: well, this fake runs can happen in both direction. It is normally the behavior of a wave 2, to make the people think, that the "old" trend is intact.

And as I wrote (and gave guideline): unless 3308 is not broken, it was a wave 2 behavior in a new downtrend.



So I sit down and await eagerly your analysis.......
  • #128,425
  • Jan 10, 2013 9:27pm Jan 10, 2013 9:27pm
Quoting drzakir123
ah i found it,look at the quarterly profile,area 1 is the last quarter(oct,nov,dec] and it form a perfect normal bell curve,the reason is those three months were quite directionless and random and number 2,is prices are trying to break out from poc of previous quarter.i have'nt posted yearly profile but if u see it,it shows VAL of 2011 is at 1.3500 so that means the real resistance is between 1.3450 and 500 and if price touch that point i am expecting a drop of atleast 200 pips that is to the level of 1.3300 before starting another leg to the upside....


thank you, nice analysis

To make it clear: I have NOT said, that we are in an environment, where a protracted move down is a given.


In my previous answer to you I said, that 3183 attracted the most buyers, and that it is more likely than not, that price will revisit this area. Interestingly, on 01.07.2012 you wrote the following:


http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...81#post6344381

"also looking through the chart below it gives an impression that buyer found value between 1.3050 and 1.3000 and it will be interesting to see where seller going to find value next 2 days.my feeling is between 1.3160/80 range."
  • #128,426
  • Jan 10, 2013 11:00pm Jan 10, 2013 11:00pm
morning..
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #128,427
  • Jan 10, 2013 11:17pm Jan 10, 2013 11:17pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
...also will be keeping an eye on 89.05 in USDJPY, where I might consider some shorts..
just took some shorts against here, risking the highs plus a few, try for 86.70..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart 3.gif Size: 15 KB
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #128,428
  • Jan 11, 2013 12:46am Jan 11, 2013 12:46am
morning,
AU shorts saved by the bell for now, had already written them of in mind when I went to bed:

AU M15:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #128,429
  • Jan 11, 2013 12:57am Jan 11, 2013 12:57am
Quoting PayTheLimit
just took some shorts against here, risking the highs plus a few, try for 86.70..
yes, retrace highly overdue but also highly manipulated if they let go for a while 84-85 in no time...
GL
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #128,430
  • Jan 11, 2013 1:09am Jan 11, 2013 1:09am
Quoting USD-Bear
morning,
AU shorts saved by the bell for now, had already written them of in mind when I went to bed:

AU M15:
Attachment
where would you like to play for?
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #128,431
  • Jan 11, 2013 1:13am Jan 11, 2013 1:13am
Quoting PayTheLimit
where would you like to play for?
1.0255 was the first number in mind but actually it's open
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #128,432
  • Jan 11, 2013 1:20am Jan 11, 2013 1:20am
Quoting USD-Bear
1.0255 was the first number in mind but actually it's open
I have 0280 down there, with a few others on the way, good luck bro..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart 3.gif Size: 17 KB
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #128,433
  • Jan 11, 2013 2:12am Jan 11, 2013 2:12am
USD/CAD considering a long at 0.9800

USD/CAD W1:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #128,434
  • Jan 11, 2013 4:51am Jan 11, 2013 4:51am
Quoting Mr Hatch
G/U:

  1. No change, position from 6222, 50% running, sl above 6127.6
  2. No change, position from 6308, 50% running, sl above 6187.0


Profit taken at 6000.1. +219 and +305.

Will check back for ECB-explosion, or barrel-burst.

Position from 6222 closed manually at 6133, the higher one is still in. +87

No other trades have been taken in 2013, and I am inclined not to change that approach, meaning no more timeframes below D1, H4 for analysis, and H1 for fine-tuning entries.
I am nowhere, where I needed to be, but the path is set.
  • #128,435
  • Jan 11, 2013 5:33am Jan 11, 2013 5:33am
2 for the road , might be wrong
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  • #128,436
  • Jan 11, 2013 6:38am Jan 11, 2013 6:38am
I took two long positions today and both are well in profit.

a) Long lunch

followed by ...

b) Long weekend


Great weekend all

Take care
" Never let the past hold the future to ransom "
  • #128,437
  • Jan 11, 2013 6:49am Jan 11, 2013 6:49am
Quoting Gleneagles
I took two long positions today and both are well in profit.

a) Long lunch

followed by ...

b) Long weekend


Great weekend all

Take care
Nice positions there. just got started myself

had too many deliveries yesterday to trade the BIG move but managed to get my fair share on the NY close

today is messy so not sure how i will trade this. probably figure it out once NY comes on board

enjoy your wonderful weather down there and i will try not to lose my sanity (what's left anyway) up here. it is raining today instead of snowing so that's something different anyway

catch up with you later partner
  • #128,438
  • Jan 11, 2013 6:52am Jan 11, 2013 6:52am
Quoting AllyB
Nice positions there. just got started myself
Umpf... where do you see them?
  • #128,439
  • Jan 11, 2013 7:00am Jan 11, 2013 7:00am
Quoting Mr Hatch
Umpf... where do you see them?
gleneagles positions?

i see him laying in a hammock by the pool with a beer cooler at his side and a plate of shrimp for lunch
  • #128,440
  • Jan 11, 2013 7:26am Jan 11, 2013 7:26am
this is looking like a real freaky friday
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