The Really Useless Thread

@ Kill. Here we go bro as expected ES on the closing session making the jump ...hope you caught it ... Here, fill or kill final target .

sisse

still waiting for 1480 then the game is on for a long time trade unless we close above , looking for 40 handles from 1480 what u think

well, from an EW view we have two options:


either the move is soon done (then down) or further up LOL

a) todays move was the C-wave impulse of a flat, so price should stay below 3308

b) the proposed A wave zigzag was not a zigzag but a 1-2, 1-2, then we should see 3427 next



So bullish trigger is 3308, bearish trigger around 3075 (have to elaborate on that)




Market Profile


the VPOC's at 3190 (daily) and 3187 (weekly) have been take out as expected

next VPOC on weekly is 3337 and 3442

VPOC's at the lower side are 3012, 2988 and 2905 with more below.


Since we are only 60 or so pips away from the 3337 VPOC, chances are high that it gets taken out with 3442 to follow


Todays POC will be around 3100. Since todays market profile is a desaster (nowhere near a bell curve) chances are high, that some space between 3100 and 3266 will be filled. Most volume occured today with the candle, which brought us up to 3188. So I will expect, that we may hit this point again.




Murrey Math and Momentum


On 15min, 60min and 4h TF I have strongest indication for 3275-3306

On daily TF 3306 is 6/8 (strong resistance), but if taken out 3367 and 3428 may follow


Momentum on 1h and 4h indicates, that next move is most likely down (divergences on 15, 60 and 4h); daily momentum in neutral zone


Murrey Math indicates that risk is now towards 3306 whereas chance is towards at least 3214-3184


My statistical model advises me to short on 15min, 60min and 4h TF, even so generated a sell on weekly TF, because 3306 is +1/8 and we are nearby.


If weekly plays out to the lower side right now, target would be 2939, but stronger 2817 and 2695





Trading advise:


go long above 3308

or


go short below 3267 with SL shortly above 3308 - in this case TP's are 3245, 3214 and 3184; after that situation has to be assessed anew

might consider looking for some longs in EURGBP against 8170/75, for a chance at 8275...last months high is 8224

not bad on es 1471 close

v close to 1480 @ sisse

Yes technically I have all time highs after but I don't think will make 1st quarter 2013. This maybe the last decent move in the ES (and in stocks in general) for some time. After the test looking for extended chop zone in a narrow range until further data. In my books we need one more good NFP for all time highs so chop expected until then...

sisse

S&P weekly RSI divergence is massive.

Is that a thing to watch?

also might consider shorts in EURJPY against 118.45/50...

night all...

bro we need to short ken he might show his pink bott

No ...Just track the earnings and see what are chart reacting at R... The RSI or any indicator divergences always lag "triggerwise" to price triggers....IMO The only thing is showing you is that you miss the boat and you don't want to be the sucker buying at highs .my 2 cents.

In any case, 2nd widest day in the euro in a year. Guess what was the 1st? .... Draghi "we will do everything ...etc) .... ECB in full control and markets trusting the moves ....

sisse

Thanks, taken note of.

118,70-120.57 is my premium sell zone


have to elaborate it further

well,with market in trend,i dont think prices reverting to mean is much of help,as poc is nothing but mean of the range.normal curve is very useful if market is random,i.e in consolidation phase and directionless and in this case top will form when buyer done thier purschasing and we wont know that till price spend long time above todays level and generally long term seller wont come in this type of market till we have 500 to 700 pips move and sometime more and that will take time.this market is in control of either long term buyer and long term sellers who are covering thier shorts.i am very hopeful it may be the start of move to the up.also consider this last two week market has drop 300 pips and then reverse 300 pips pretty quickly and this kind of price action happen when market want to take week hand[in this longs]out of the market and go the way it want to go.now all the shorts who wrong will be so fucked up with panic that if they see just the price they will be jumping out of thier sleep and all the longs who are out of the market will be waiting for the price reach proper level to re enter again but price wont ever come to the proper level and these poor souls will be keep waiting but when they enter the market it will be too late for them and they be catching the falling knifes.regards

ps. now price is in trend may be its useful if we jump to a higher level and see at which time frame normal distribution curve is forming.let me asess quaterly and yearly profile to see what happening there if i find anything interesting will post some charts.thanks

ah i found it,look at the quarterly profile,area 1 is the last quarter(oct,nov,dec] and it form a perfect normal bell curve,the reason is those three months were quite directionless and random and number 2,is prices are trying to break out from poc of previous quarter.i have'nt posted yearly profile but if u see it,it shows VAL of 2011 is at 1.3500 so that means the real resistance is between 1.3450 and 500 and if price touch that point i am expecting a drop of atleast 200 pips that is to the level of 1.3300 before starting another leg to the upside.
the above scenario go very well with the expectation that fed at some point going to raise interest rate this year or early next year,if that happen then we are looking at the market bottom and start of a new bull market in equites and strong euro.
finally just to be more objective since i am long and winning,and probably thats kind of distorting my perception and my mind thowing up all kind of rationales to support my bias ignoring the reality,but again i like to flow with market in the now.

now dats whut you call a trend day, was thinking of putting in a speculative long, but didn't, duh...

kenfeeeeeyy!!!

no shit.. i hope the sucker is ok..

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5. Jan 10, 2013 4:39pm (1 hr 39 min ago)

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s/o a 3154 short and 2 others. down about 35 pips. all looks bullish..the high at the moment is 3279, its also the current level atm. when all have the party hats on, beware. its never a sure thing..
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Posted by spartanforex
very true even a drop of 100 pips from here would be healthy for bulls.

Posted by Ken A
Yeah it can go anywhere from here.

i like the cheap seats. 2894 is still norm b4 3592 here. 3594 is the old missed one since 2008.. the ypp is 3588... if we dont make the ypp before jan 1. then norm pa is here. at anytime norm may want a drink at 2894 ish.. i like the one the arrow path goes to simply because it goes go there, just less often, but the r/r is much better there,

we got 3/4 to 2894 (2997 low)... using 3308 as a starting point. if we go to it (2894) now, then 2687 is a new target. its why i look at 3279 hard.. it makes 3281/85 a R uf we do break R.. we still may see 3101, the cheap seats