Euro/Dollar

Just took this off at BE....

I keep missing the entry on USDJPY, when price moves near the buy zone but fails to enter on USDJPY before moving higher...

Price completely filled AUDJPY's buy zone and moved out to the upside and tempted me in .... but....

I am short EURUSD and expect some short term risk off coming....

AUDJPY and USDJPY do not move in step either together or opposite of EURUSD.....

AUDJPY is only 58.3% correlated
USDJPY only 47.1 %

But USDJPY is the lesser correlated fro one thing,

PLUS, since I expect one more risk off swoon in the market, USDJPY has a good chance to finally fill in the buy zone and fill my resting limit orders, while in the same move, AUDJPY may stop out on the same move...

So I've closed AUDJPY longs, and I'm keeping my buy orders in place in USDJPY between 86.65 and 85.65 knowing I may miss another move in the great JPY manipulation trade, but that plan fits better with the trade I already have in place.

It wants to happen... will we get the follow though?

Breaking below the Kumo on the Hourly as well.

GBPUSD ( highly correlated to EURUSD ) continues to lead... just broke through 6100... EURUSD frustratingly sticky at 3050

EDIT: 6000 I mean of course

One fresh H4 candle on E/U leading bearish.

S&P500 Breaking out bullishly from Kumo on H1...

This is supportive of EURUSD...

I'm out of EURUSD shorts

Not going long, just flat.... rebound has too much momentum to risk profits on trade any farther...

Better to wait for anotehr entry... we may end up sideways in more corrective action.

ECB rate decision in the morning, and Euro back to unchanged on the day likely mean sideways grind and chop till after the risk event.

Good Morning... We trade 1.3072 15 mins before European equity open...

Still bearish, but PA appears to not be quite ready to get underway into a new down trend....

Rate decision today is unlikely to cause any movement, only a 2% chance of any rate change, however, the real risk event if Draghi's press conference that follows...

You never know what he is going to say, or how the market will react.... as usual I am flat going into this risk event after yesterdays promising, but subsequently disappointing down move....

Still waiting to get into the JPY moves... I have been extremely cautious as the move is parabolic and I need a good price to ente. Either I get my price or I am just going to have to miss it....

There is a chance the current up move is a wave B of ABC correction and downturn in wave C will carry price down into the mid 86 - 85 (USDJPY) region....

I'm not interested in getting on that train until then....

Charts are heavily encouraged in this thread... so I will comply

Here is the H4.... despite the promising count yesterday, the down move fizzled as soon as it got to the key support underlying the market....

Indicator people will tell you a key Bollinger lies near 3030... and it does.

Form an Elliott Wave perspective, I view that support not from a Bollinger, but from the area bounded by the price territory of a previous 4th wave of 1 degree smaller... drawn in the shaded blue box.

So carrying on with this discussion...

Here is the idealized complete 1 cycle of Elliott Wave.... One of the most valuable things Elliott Wave can tell us, is where is wave C likely to end?

If the larger trend is up....larger trend in the drawing is notated with numbers inside ().... Wave C ends in the price territory of the former wave 4. It will usually challenge the price extreme of wave 4. Then in the line drawing the move would continue from wave C bottom up past the peak of wave 1, into Wave (3) ( one degree larger) as the underlying uptrend from the drawing continues.

I believe EURUSD is in a downtrend. I believe we have been correcting within the price territory of a former wave 4 since the initial low at 2999, and yesterday I believed that the correction was complete, and we would breakout of the bottom of the price territory of former wave 4.... because in a downtrend, that support must be broken at some point so price can move in the new trend's direction..... if it fails to do so, eventually the market will give up trying, and the original trend will continue.

Yesterday I was short, things were looking good from a variety of perspectives, but when we got to the bottom border of wave 4 of one lesser degree in EURUSD, price shot up 30 pips in less than 20 minutes....

Even though for now, I still hold a bearish view, that kind of price action... a strong bounce from that border, signals that the market was not yet ready to go down....

Very bullish Spanish bond auction results have Spanish Ten year yields touching lowest levels since March 2012...

Has printed sub 5%.... Bullish fro European risk....

Way too tricky a place to be considering longs in EURUSD... for swing traders.... right now...

We are still correcting at this point... Possible we get a five wave move up in a C wave from 3040, but it would be tricky and too short term intraday scale for my taste...

Caution: This is about as bullish as I can get at this point in time.

We could be unfolding the attached scenario... a stop below 3040 would risk 60 pips for potential 80 pip gain... not very good... Even Worse

That is the best most bullish pattern that I can see at this point in time... there are other patterns that could be underway that would offer much less Risk/Reward than this best case possibility...

We should really be looking for the start of a new trend, instead of trading inside a corrective move.... but you know, I do it from time to time... realizing the risk is higher as we may never reach this best case scenario target...

Anyway, maybe one can find a way to trade this best case from a scalping perspective...

This is the next most likely pattern underway... a triangle in its early stages...

In this pattern the likely maximum extent of (c) is 1.3123... or .618 of wave (a), before falling again to (d)....

1.3123 is just a fib target... a common fib relationship to (a)... wave (c) may already be in at current levels...

Now you can see why I think trading in this spot is tricky...

Better bet is to wait for a resolution to the correction to form, or at least be giving clues that it is forming like we got yesterday....

We have hit the target of 3180 in this post... during Draghi's comments regarding retention of current interest rates... no chance to cut rates can be foreseen...

looking for the market to turn near 3180.... Highly volatile during the press conference of course...

The 3180 target we have already hot is derived from A = C common Fib relationship.... its a target and price should top between here and the 61.8 somewhat higher... Channel top at 3172 this hour can provide some stickyness too...

We got a little higher given the crazy volatility that always accompanies these shows....

How often to we see price come right back off after the risk event has pasted?

Often

We trade in crazy territory... largest range day since Bernanke QE3 announcement...

We trade 3225 and this is spot for a pull back...

Believe it or not, this is still only the top of wave 3 of 5 waves... all interior to a C wave... in other words...

I expect a pullback from current levels to 3180/90, and then another push higher before this swing is done...

All terribly exaggerated by the Draghi risk event... Exaggerated or not, it still must be in 5 waves... as all C waves are....

and then we will get the decline...

Book your profits if you are long here, and rebuy at 3180/90... suggested.

1.3250... absolutely crazy...
and unsustainable

http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/cust...tar91805_1.gif Crassius

How do you locate a Wave 0 on a 4 hour chart? Imo its impossible you can hardly see it on a 1 hour chart however how do you define the properties of a wave 0?

Also, is there a time relationship with waves? If the previous impulsive wave took x hours and minutes the next impulsive wave should match it or exceed it depending on fundies and volatility?

I see some similarities but not sure if its covered in the works of Elliott.