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  • #261
  • Dec 18, 2012 7:33pm Dec 18, 2012 7:33pm
Quoting mypipbull
CAD Long

USD/CAD (Short)

[email protected] [email protected]
Bullish Inside Bar yesterday on the USD/CAD

Today I have:
CAD/CHF - Short
EUR/CAD - Long
GBP/CAD - Long

This shows CAD weakness so USD/CAD orders cancelled.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #262
  • Dec 18, 2012 7:49pm Dec 18, 2012 7:49pm
EUR/JPY

Stop moved up to 109.75. This is just below the gap that formed (post election).
The gap is not visible on my usual chart but is on my dealer chart.
We are right on the resistance I marked so will see how we perform here.
If the Yen is going to strengthen this would be an area to expect it to happen.
For the time being follow the trend.
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  • #263
  • Dec 18, 2012 8:15pm Dec 18, 2012 8:15pm
CAD/CHF - Short

I like this signal. There is a weekly oversold warning in place but the bar was pretty convincing. Here is the obvious reason:

A bearish outside bar with a close below a recent weekly low in a down trend.

[email protected] [email protected]
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #264
  • Dec 18, 2012 10:03pm Dec 18, 2012 10:03pm
Sugar

Now that the futures data is settled, I have an interesting long signal.

This is an early signal as the EMA's have not crossed, but both of their slopes are positive. I am bullish this technically and fundamentally but the trend is still down. What is nice about this is that a break above the prior bar would have us breaking out above the downtrend line. It is pretty tempting to have a nibble here and then add to the position if the trend does turn up.
However, I am going to hold off for the time being. I have been patient to date so do not want to rush in as this market has been very depressed for some time.
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  • #265
  • Dec 19, 2012 6:24pm Dec 19, 2012 6:24pm
Position Summary Update
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  • #266
  • Dec 20, 2012 4:06am Dec 20, 2012 4:06am
Just wondered here from Olu's journal based on your very informative comments there and I must say I am impressed by your methodology here. You have a well kept journal and a very good trading strategy. I am currently demoing daily signal with the intention of moving away from the lower TF. I will be sneaking in here from time to time to learn some skills and hope you wont mind.

Regards
  • #267
  • Dec 20, 2012 7:18am Dec 20, 2012 7:18am
Quoting johNal
Just wondered here from Olu's journal based on your very informative comments there and I must say I am impressed by your methodology here. You have a well kept journal and a very good trading strategy. I am currently demoing daily signal with the intention of moving away from the lower TF. I will be sneaking in here from time to time to learn some skills and hope you wont mind.

Regards

JohNal this is a great thread to follow for simplicity so well done. For me lower timeframes thrash your account
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #268
  • Dec 20, 2012 6:11pm Dec 20, 2012 6:11pm
Quoting johNal
Just wondered here from Olu's journal based on your very informative comments there and I must say I am impressed by your methodology here. You have a well kept journal and a very good trading strategy. I am currently demoing daily signal with the intention of moving away from the lower TF. I will be sneaking in here from time to time to learn some skills and hope you wont mind.

Regards
Thanks for the kind words johNal. Olu is a great guide also, he keeps things simple and this is what many people fail to accept as being a good thing. IMO trading daily charts and above is way less stressful and actually easier (profit wise) to do.
I hope you can learn from this journal and it helps you trading.
All the best
Mike
  • #269
  • Dec 20, 2012 7:01pm Dec 20, 2012 7:01pm
Silver
Stop lowered to just above breakeven, there is no logical lower swing high yet to move the stop down to. Price has just tanked and a pullback is probably overdue. Some support has be found at 30.0 as the day closed off its low.

EUR/JPY
I have got long signals across the board on the XXX/JPY pairs. This is a great reason to raise my stop up, which I have done. Given my bullish Yen bias (still) I will not be adding to longs at these levels, there is just too much resistance in the way. IF we get above these MAJOR levels and hold I will then most likely join the party on the Yen bashing.
For now 112.0 is being defended pretty well........so far.

Palladium
Have been watching this one for a while. Bearish COT conditions exist here, not entirely surprising given the PM's in general are weak at the moment. Price looks to have been rejected at a nice weekly resistance level (700). So I am waiting for a solid sell signal.
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  • #270
  • Dec 23, 2012 9:07pm Dec 23, 2012 9:07pm
General Update
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  • #271
  • Dec 27, 2012 9:25pm Dec 27, 2012 9:25pm
EUR/JPY

Stop moved up to 112.25

Sugar

May have finally broken out to the upside. We know markets are thinly traded at this time of year BUT the volume on the 27th was pretty good, and it was a large bar with a pretty strong close. In saying all this, I will not be looking to enter until the new year. This could well be a buy hold for next year.
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  • #272
  • Edited 8:17pm Jan 2, 2013 8:05pm | Edited 8:17pm
Quick Update

Happy New Year to everyone.

I am currently in the middle of moving intersate so have limited access to charts etc.
Below is a quick summary of recent activity/positions.
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  • #273
  • Jan 8, 2013 7:45pm Jan 8, 2013 7:45pm
General Update

USD/CHF Long orders placed. I like it from a COT point of view (Bullish USD and Bearish CHF). Weekly looks oversold, daily looks to be a breakout pullback. I would expect 0.95 to be first large hurdle if we move up from here. If we move below yesterdays low orders will be cancelled.
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  • #274
  • Jan 9, 2013 2:36am Jan 9, 2013 2:36am
Hey man. Great stuff!

When you say bullish USD, I assume you are looking at the USDX futures ? I get my COT data from barchart.com (Now that TimingCharts managed to f**k things up) . Do you use another source?

http://barchart.com/cache/b3c24c5457...b44021d1b9.png
I don't need easy. I just need possible.
  • #275
  • Jan 9, 2013 3:48pm Jan 9, 2013 3:48pm
Quoting DaGrizlyBull
Hey man. Great stuff!

When you say bullish USD, I assume you are looking at the USDX futures ? I get my COT data from barchart.com (Now that TimingCharts managed to f**k things up) . Do you use another source?

http://barchart.com/cache/b3c24c5457...b44021d1b9.png
Yes USD futures......Timing charts was good but its a mess now.....I use cotbase.com now. I also use barchart as well but mostly to look at forward contracts for interest sake really.
Cheers
Mike
  • #276
  • Jan 9, 2013 6:21pm Jan 9, 2013 6:21pm
EUR/JPY - Stop raised

I had a buy signal across the board on the XXX/JPY pairs today.
This is good enough reason to raise my stop on the EJ.
Price seems to have been chopping around showing a bit more indecision at current levels, but we could go higher again.
Next likely battle ground if we clear 116 would be 118.
I will be looking at other pairs to possibly add, providing we have enough room to move.
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  • #277
  • Jan 9, 2013 6:47pm Jan 9, 2013 6:47pm
Hi MPB

What is your take on March Sugar? I am bullish...

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #278
  • Jan 9, 2013 7:09pm Jan 9, 2013 7:09pm
Quoting Olu
Hi MPB

What is your take on March Sugar? I am bullish...

Olu
Hi Olu,
Yeah, my bias is Long but position is flat.
By my definition the trend is still down despite efforts to catch a bid.
It is looking more encouraging though, if the mid December low stays intact we may go up.
Ordinarily I would be shorting this market BUT the lower lows are becoming shallower and due to my bullish bias I am on the side at the moment.
If PA can really prove itself to the upside then I will be looking for a buy hold situation.
This is the same for Coffee.....
  • #279
  • Jan 9, 2013 7:26pm Jan 9, 2013 7:26pm
GBP/JPY - Long Orders

We have broken above the weekly resistance level of 140. We then tested it and bounced strongly back up forming a bullish inside day. Due to the inside day I will be placing orders about the prior bar with a buy stop above the high and a sell stop below the low.
Next significant resistance 146.

This is a very mature trend now and a reversal is getting more likely by the day or at the very least a significant retracement. For me buying high and expecting to sell higher is tough game to play but these trends often go further than anyone thought possible.....fingers crossed.
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  • #280
  • Jan 9, 2013 7:27pm Jan 9, 2013 7:27pm
Quoting mypipbull
General Update

USD/CHF Long orders placed. I like it from a COT point of view (Bullish USD and Bearish CHF). Weekly looks oversold, daily looks to be a breakout pullback. I would expect 0.95 to be first large hurdle if we move up from here. If we move below yesterdays low orders will be cancelled.
USD/CHF Long opened last night
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