Euro/Dollar

It appears that a flat correction is unfolding in EURUSD.... Flats are counted 3,3,5.

We know that in corrections a common fib relationship is that wave C = Wave A... here that puts the end of projected wave C possibly unfolding now... at 1.3109 measured from the current bottom of 1.3017.... We trade 1.3039.

If we trade any lower first, the target will drop by the same number of pips that we go below below 3117... but given the overlapping action, and evident three waves already in at 3117 low, we probably already have completed the first two legs of anticipated 3 wave corrective (counter - trend) move up in EURUSD.

Here's the pattern from Prechter's...

Remember that the 3109 projection is just a common fib relationship.... I think more important to the current positioning of EURUSD would be the rising base channel line in aqua... that may be a better target than the fib derived target...

Another possible pattern that can develop given the current waves in place would be a triangle.... this would form if selling is so intense that EURUSD can not make a new higher higher in wave C...

Something to keep in mind as the chart draws out some farther PA....

Here's that pattern...

One of those two are most likely.... either a flat with max extension to 3109 (or more likely the rising base channel line) or a triangle in its early stages of development.

Price action full of overlaps, which leads me to believe the down move off 3090 is still corrective action and not the start of another leg down....

This is 15 min data, so I am looking very very small degrees that would clean up at larger scale, but I think cleaning this up by jumping to higher scale is just shoving what's really happening into a box that fits what you want to see...

I think we correct higher or sideways till we see some clean swings that will tell us we are moving impulsively again...

Hi,

I notice the fav book bwilc is listed, i'm just curious does anybody trade in this manner?

To add i am bullish on the euro as long as 1.3000 holds i think we will see some upside to 1.3500 area in the coming weeks.

C Wave shaping up nicely..... Completing the ABC correction off the 2999 low....

I am already short of course....

Hey Bulls !!

This Candle's for you

Hey,
Nice stuff you bring here...

Below is another potential reversal on 15m chart, a Gartley Pattern:

Thanks..

Yeah 3109 is strong reversal potential..... The band 1.3120/25 is very strong, reinforced by 1.3132.... There must be a ton of stops tucked up above there though.. they may prove too tempting a target to the market.... they may get run just to pop them...

I've moved my stop up a bit, because I have an alternate count down from 3299 that shows a lower probability..... but one that has to be kept in mind that... this rise extends to the 50% retrace....

Hey
It looks like the bulls are strong, or the bears are week during these hours...
It looks like current res. levels wont hold, so at least Gartley Pattern is a false signal now, I haven't opened shorts yet, because there is a minor divergence which I cannot apply to my rules.
If the current candle fails to break the 1.3122/25 price levels, and we have confirmed star candle, the evening star, then I might short this pair.



Update from my previous post, I closed shorts on cable since there is a double bottom and nice bullish divergence, so currently I expect the 3rd wave to be completed somewhere between 1.6126 and 1.6199.

Aussie Dollar currently respects the resistant level, I guess more clear picture will be in the morning.

Green pips to all

I'm still hanging on to my interpretation of the swing from 3020 area as one Wave C of a corrective move up from 2999....

The swing from 2999 to 3090 area is clearly in three waves.... an impulsive move off 2999 MUST start with a five wave structure..... The three and only three waves clearly seen in the first swing up has my unable to see the move up from 2999 as anything other than corrective.

It is easy to get fooled by the "frequency" of size of interior swings. Sometimes I count a wave only to later realize it was a sub-wave of the larger degree I am tracking.... The truth is only revealed as subsequent bars clarify the picture.

That is what I believe is now evident as we trade 1.3130 after having been as high as 3140.... I was counting some interior swings of wave 3 of C as swings of C.

I am starting to see a five wave shape, but only in the scale I associate within one swing, and that is what I am expecting if my corrective interpretation is to prove to be right.

The fact that the price territory of wave 4 of one lesser degree extends all the way to 3170, and that this area is the most likely Terminus of an ABC correction, adds weight to this interpretation. The 1.618 extension of wave A comes in as high as 1.3166. Above that a wave C becomes much less likely, and I am probably wrong....

I am relying on the interior formation of the waves for my tenaciousness...

If I see a swing down and back up even higher that is large enough to be considered a swing of the same scale as the 2999 to 3090 up swing, or the 3090 to 3017 downswing, then I will know I am wrong, as that would form five waves of the degree I am trading, and five waves up of that degree would be bullish, not bearish... but I don t see that yet...

Perhaps it just hasn't happened yet... nonetheless.... I remain short knowing that reversal must happen soon from....

anywhere in the price territory of wave 4 of one lesser degree that I have drawn in the chart as a blue box, and that extends from 3125 to 3170, and more likely its upper ranges (as price challenges but is turned back by former wave 4 of one lesser degree's swing extreme).

It took extreme patience, but the corrective nature of the rise is confirmed by the overlapping price action... It can't be a new uptrend, because they are formed by five wave structures such that wave 4 cannot overlap wave 1... ever.

If the PA is corrective, it is counter-trend, and one can expect it will be retraced at some point.

I'm not sure what will happen next... we'll need some more bars to draw out, because although the C wave I have been tracking is now complete at 3140, the correction may or may not be complete... you can have a double zig-zag for example.... 3 waves up, followed by an X wave, followed by three more waves up in this case would be one example....

Until I see impulsive 5 wave structures up, the trend is down.....

GPBUSD looking exactly like the bearish scenario I expected today for EURUSD....

As the two are highly correlated, I am more and more hopeful we will start to see the weakness in EURUSD accelerate into a real down move in an impulsive swing lower....

Its late... been a hard days night....

You should be able to look at the attached chart and see what my thinking is without me typing it here....

Bottom of that base channel of wave 1 is worth a close look..

Crassius thank's for all your postings.

coincidence - my drawing says the same thing as yours

Thanks....

I always am glad to see another person's chart... Its good to see other perspectives especially when they confirm my view with another method.

Good morning... I got a good days sleep....

We are still putting in wave 2 in my opinion... Wave 2 should be in three waves, and a common fib relationship to wave 1, which appears complete at 3156 is the .618....

Wave 2 can retrace 100% of wave 1 and still be valid, however a print above 3140 and the count is broken.... Its a great place to add to a short position as the stop is clear at just above 3140 and you can assess your risk with great accuracy....

Better yet, wave 3... the longest and strongest wave down is yet to come... I am looking at least into the mid 2900's as a target, and think at some point we will challenge 2880.... before turning sharply higher into the 1.3800's....

I've been looking for a place to get into the JPY trade having missed an early entry by two pips...

Just went long AUDJPY just above 92.00 stop below last swing low, which caught my favorite buy area perfectly, but I had my buys layered into USDJPY, which failed to quite enter the buy zone... yet again....

Taking it in AUDJPY, even though it has already moved out of the ideal buy zone....

This is pretty much my plan for the day. Selling from 1.31xx.