The Really Useless Thread

Look on hoourly close above 92.30.. if that happens.. then you may close your short..

on the other hand.. a 4h close below 91.85 would open south gate..

Im long scalp in AY

working more off the 4hr on this one, not very fond of it right now, the long side feels a little crowded to me, and I see some weakness in GBPJPY and EURJPY, at any rate will give it some time if possible, and see if it develops into something, good luck mate...

Thnks mate.. currently AY is stuck in a range of 40pipos between 4h Support and 1h Resistance..
after that drop in asia.. oscillators at 1h chart are bullish.. but we'll see..

A bit of quiet for a London session, hopefully we'll get some shaking very soon,,

EURJPY, two bar about face combo against last months high, closing below 113.80ish might open the door for a better pull back towards 110.13, othewise a failure of this pattern might set up another thrust up, towards 118.50, where I will look for shorts...

yep, would be nice to see a little movement...

Quarterly Outlook Q1 2013

On the FA side:

 

1. After VIX posted the Worst Weekly Loss on Record is clear the storm that started 2008 is officially over. We are back to normal trading times with the usual and natural hiccups. Expecting a mild quarter on the FA side outside of regular macro reports with 2 major FA plays to track: ECB cutting rates and lots of noise and tweet trading later on the Quarter from the US (multiple cliffs and BS) right before the Key EZ bond auction as Spain and Italy will need to go back to the markets.
   
2. ECB rate decision coming first this week but after last very "dovish" conferences and comments the next 2 meeting are wide open for a cut. Macro numbers in Europe keep ticking down and only in Germany found some kind of bottom in December. Rates are open for a cut in Q1. My call is that the ECB will hold January (euro neutral) to check final Q4 figures before triggering further cuts leaving the door wide open if things start getting nasty in the bond markets before the key auction at the end of Q1 (euro negative).
   
3. The circus in Washington continues after as expected we didn't go over the cliff with a half baked kicking the can solution. I expect more noise from the politicians and media rather than from the markets. Is nothing to see in the US "cliffs" front until end of January and March. FED policy is clear and anchored to employment so reaction only link to macro numbers especially NFP. IMO, we are just one positive surprise NFP away from all time highs in the S&P. Macro numbers and NFP more important than usual in this Quarter. "Uncertainty" over the cliff and any weaker than expected numbers in the US will only weaken the dollar further. The macro economic related devaluation will continue until rate hikes are back in play later this year.
   

On the TA side:

 

1. Quarterly:
   1. Rejection of swing low almost completed. The "easy" part of the move is gone. Strong 1.296x is now key support for continuation to strong 1.334x. 1.318x is momentum line to the top side to 1.334x. Only a break of this level will open 1.365x extension this Quarter in a clean fast in and out move.
      
   2. Q loading area, fadable with weekly for the move up first is at 1.296x (with max overshoot 1.288x). A break below with ECB cutting rates will cause collateral damage in the pullback and it will need reassessment of the levels.
      

2. Monthly:
   1. Reversal from August/September completing the leg now we need to find a top. Same 1.296x fadable to 1.318x and 1.334x. Above that is out of the monthly range. Nothing tradable in this timeframe to the short side. Only if ECB decide to cut rates will have something in play for later.
      
   2. The decent and with the trend trade comes on the break back 1.318x but needs to clear ECB (no cut this month otherwise is no no)/this week to have the play this month...otherwise will be delayed for next month.

3. Weekly:
   1. Uptrend holding and retrace wave is losing steam. Only a clean break with some FA will extend the pullback (it can extend as low as 1.268x without invalidating the uptrend). Chop looks closer than continuation but like always in trading chop zone in uptrend/dowtrend is loading time. 1.297x and 1.288x key levels to track for a rejection to 1.346x max target with intermediate stops at 1.318x and 1.335x
      

4. Daily:
   1. Entering in consolidation mode. A test 1.297x and/or rejection of daily swing low at this levels open a good long swing to 1.347x with multiple stops in the noisy 1.309x, and after 1.334x. Lots of Support and noise below 1.297x until 1.288x so nothing tradable (r:r) in this chart there until a break below.

5. Intraday
   1. Bottoming after the selloff last week. 1.300x key level for a rejection for longs. 1.297x naked and open for a test but untradable in my books at the current levels (1.302x) . Only early trapped bulls can trigger a run to 1.288x but the real deal is to the other side. We are set for a wide chop zone intraday until ECB.

The usual charts update (Q/M/W). GL all this quarter.

sisse

if we are going to the norm 2894, for 3588/94. a second hump to Fridays high area is norm. 3101.8 may contain it. 3095/98 ish is a place of interest. 2894 min is a place bears want to go. its also a place bulls go normally before 3588/94+. the current low is exactly 3/4 of the way from last months high to 2894. 3101.8 is half. wtf is ken

closed

no shorts for me.. looking for a higher entry.. today the current high + 10 looks doable. void with a ll today. atm @ 3032

Update: a picture is worth more than 1000 words. Need an H4-close below the blue box to proceed. Marked candle is bothering me.

1. Jan 7, 2013 6:57am (1 hr 17 min ago)

http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/cust...ar164391_3.gif 21vs7 http://images.forexfactory.net/statu...ser_online.gif
Foook Bollinger-dr.Kegel knows!
Member Since Dec 2010

4,179 Posts

Posted by gatorinla
if we are going to the norm 2894, for 3588/94. a second hump to Fridays high area is norm. 3101.8 may contain it. 3095/98 ish is a place of interest. 2894 min is a place bears want to go. its also a place bulls go normally before 3588/94+. the current low is exactly 3/4 of the way from last months high to 2894. 3101.8 is half. wtf is ken

I see your 2894 have pip 2893ish diff. what do you have inbeetween till this level? I have 3008/2996 and then 2982/56. then air till the number.____________________________ I would say we could play 3097 and 2956 next few weeks here..could range for other pairs to move...perhaps cable. On my count still misses some levels down to be paired with the fibre for another assualt.

Howdy partner

good to see you back

the US sure knows how to muck up a market don't they

howdy...

for sure

i was hoping to do my homework and get some established levels sorted for trading tomorrow

pa is all over the place with no clear levels to trade from

equities pointing down after opening in the red and zero trying to push new highs ??

i was afraid of this after the debacle of last week with the cliff jumping.

no respect for any dustbin levels!!

EJ has been a better pair to trade but rumors are starting to mess that one up too today

better go back to deliveries

it better settle down quickly , my beerfund is heading for the cliff as well

old mother Hubbard went to the cupboard to get her poor dog a bone and when she got there the cupboard was bare so her poor little dog had none

OH WAIT ... I JUST GOT A DUSTBIN

h low since bounce

right 54 level paid ......at last