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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #122,121
  • Jan 4, 2013 3:42pm Jan 4, 2013 3:42pm
Quoting hally0301
Nice PB on GBPUSD forming on the daily chart. PB bouncing off 61.8FIB, BRN and 1.60 and 200 and 365 EMA's sitting just below as well so would have to break through lots of resistance to head down.

On the weekly chart price is trapped between 200 and 365 EMA's but FTA that I see is at about 1.63 so trade has enough room to run.

Watching this one to see how the market opens on Monday.

Any one else with thoughts on this one?
EURUSD and GU are correlated pairs, and so the same situation is showing up. The discussion had above about EU works here too unfortunatly. And here the PB is not even an ideal PB at all.

  • #122,122
  • Jan 4, 2013 9:28pm Jan 4, 2013 9:28pm
i think about it
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  • #122,123
  • Jan 5, 2013 9:31am Jan 5, 2013 9:31am
Quoting chuongio
i think about it
How about this? And GU??
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  • #122,124
  • Jan 5, 2013 9:36am Jan 5, 2013 9:36am
Quoting Microtrader_
Dear Trader Felllows,

At first I would like to say thank you for your generous work with building this forum, giving a lot of extremely valuable trading information and teaching less experienced traders. I have been following your activity for quite a long time and I learnt a lot from you and other forums based on your work and I was able to make my trading definitely more effective.

In this post I would like to ask for your openion about a bit more special trading case, you could help me a lot and I
Some weeks ago I noticed among your...
Hi Microtrader,

I'm not Mike, but I'd be happy to try and answer your question! Below I have attached a chart of a gap trade that occurred on the opening week of December 14th for the EURJPY pair. It was a very ideal gap trade situation.

1. The answer to this question is ultimately "well, it's a practiced art." My personal rule for taking gaps (and I think the rule shared by most members of this thread) is never to trade more than one gap for a given currency. On the week of Dec 14th, several gaps formed across JPY pairs. So why did I choose only to trade the EURJPY? Well, after analyzing all the pairs, this gap had the greatest chance of filling, since price opened right beneath a big resistance level, and the gap was right above a big support level. IMO, the only way this gap would have been more ideal is if the previous daily bar was a good PA bar...unfortunately those setups are very very rare.

2. SL for this trade was right above the resistance line. Again, SL really varies trade by trade, but you should always place it at a sensical location. Above a resistance line is sensical. As per James16 rules, you should never risk more than 2% of your account on a trade.

3. Like the SL, the TP is going to vary trade by trade, and is also more of an art. I tend to be somewhat conservative with TPs, so I put mine a little bit above where the gap filled. Most traders put their TPs right above the gap fill line. Either way works. If you put your TP right above the gap fill line (the lower blue line), your TP would have been hit.

4. Pretty much any timezone you choose (and thus any broker you choose) will show a gap of some kind if one is present at all. Though these gaps may be slightly different because of timezone offsets, pretty much all of them have an equal likelihood of being filled. Personally, I use 3 different time zones, and I plot the most conservative entry/exit for my gaps. So far, this hasn't proved beneficial, but it makes me feel more confident about my trade. Just FYI, (as far as I know) gaps appear on the opening of Sundays, not Mondays. You'll want to look at Sunday openings when considering gaps. Most gaps will be filled within several hours after the Sunday open...usually during the beginning of the London session.

As a final note, I avoid trading gaps caused by holidays. These seem less likely to fill in my experience. The Christmas time gaps are good proof of this. Go back in your charts and look. Also, if it's any consolation, I have been told that only 3% of Sunday gaps don't fill. I haven't tested this hypothesis, so while I can't say it's true, I can say that gap trades ARE highER probability trades. As long as you are smart cherry-picking them, you'll usually walk away with pips in less time than a normal daily bar trade. Hope this helps!

ElectroGypsy
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I'm a dog chasing cars.
  • #122,125
  • Edited 11:19am Jan 5, 2013 11:08am | Edited 11:19am
Quoting chuongio
i think about it
In my opinion,it's not a bad idea. eurusd is daily bullish until now. however, you ALWAYS need good luck,because risk ALWAYS exists.on short term,look at the h4 chart,you can see the resistance ,and the first resistance @1.3089 has reacted.so ,good luck to you.
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A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #122,126
  • Jan 5, 2013 11:41am Jan 5, 2013 11:41am
about Eur/Usd

good thinks are:

confluence (fibo, round number, trendline, 365 ema)

doubts are:

the weekly beob (but at the moment we aren't sure it will be break at the low)

so, what about you, bro?

thx
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Don't give up
  • #122,127
  • Jan 5, 2013 12:07pm Jan 5, 2013 12:07pm
My take is this:
I'm not going to take long b/c there are 3 resistances.
(1) 1.306 to 1.31 -- fib 23 and 38 confluence plus strong resistances in the past
(2) 1.315 -- fib 50 and 23 confluence plus a friction 12/14
(3) 1.32 to 1.33 -- a big congestion box

I don't think it goes over 1.33, breaking all these resistances. So, I will be looking to short...

Does it make sense to you guys??
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  • #122,128
  • Jan 5, 2013 12:21pm Jan 5, 2013 12:21pm
Quoting Forexgogo

I don't think it goes over 1.33, breaking all these resistances
in any case, from here to 1,33 with sl below previous bar, would be a good r/r, isn't it?
Don't give up
  • #122,129
  • Jan 5, 2013 12:38pm Jan 5, 2013 12:38pm
Quoting geomink
in any case, from here to 1,33 with sl below previous bar, would be a good r/r, isn't it?
I would not go long under any circumstances...
  • #122,130
  • Jan 5, 2013 10:38pm Jan 5, 2013 10:38pm
pinbar conformation buy it
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  • #122,131
  • Jan 5, 2013 11:13pm Jan 5, 2013 11:13pm
Quoting chuongio
pinbar conformation buy it
careful bro. Remember that we need as many factors tipping in our favour as possible.

I see that its off a trend line but it still is weak looking at the size in absolute as well as relative terms. Look at the size of the preceding down bars compared to your pin bar.

The strong bars will jump out and literally shout that there is a tip off in momentum. These are big authoritative bars that are a safer bet than smaller bars which may just be representing a mere halt rarher than a true reversal.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #122,132
  • Jan 6, 2013 2:51am Jan 6, 2013 2:51am
Hi guys!

I was watching charts and look what found - something very interesting:

CAD/CHF, Weekly BUEOB and USD/CAD, Weekly DBHLC. These two pairs are mirrored.

Won't write all the facts, hope everything is showed on charts and will be readable.
As always will be very appreciated for all your seniors' comments.
Thanks.

P.S. One thing - it is not a Swing High Point on USD/CAD

Nick
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  • #122,133
  • Jan 6, 2013 4:51am Jan 6, 2013 4:51am
possible inverted head/shoulders pattern on EURUSD weekly chart.

are we heading up?
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Learning for Earning and Trading for Freedom
  • #122,134
  • Jan 6, 2013 8:29am Jan 6, 2013 8:29am
Quoting ghous
careful bro. Remember that we need as many factors tipping in our favour as possible.

I see that its off a trend line but it still is weak looking at the size in absolute as well as relative terms. Look at the size of the preceding down bars compared to your pin bar.

The strong bars will jump out and literally shout that there is a tip off in momentum. These are big authoritative bars that are a safer bet than smaller bars which may just be representing a mere halt rarher than a true reversal.

g.

Also the fact that on the weekly , the 1.2930 area was acting as support and the weekly broke below it. Hence now it should act as resistance and pinbar occurred on daily will simply push the price to this area and down we go again...

This is a definite no no in my opinion.
  • #122,135
  • Jan 6, 2013 9:17am Jan 6, 2013 9:17am
Quoting meshka
My sell order trigered on EURAUD. hope NFP will not spoil it
Hey Meshka,
As far as the euraud trade we both took, I was looking at the targets you planned. Do you not include recent Weekly HCR's as a possiable first target in this trade??? Heres a couple charts. Maybe you have already taken profit though. What you think? Thanks.

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The Eyes Believe What They See And The Ears Believe What Others Say.
  • #122,136
  • Jan 6, 2013 10:12am Jan 6, 2013 10:12am
AMP on weekly with breakout. very strong close. would love to see a drop of 1.5 to 2 usd before going up.
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meine augen sind die sterne
  • #122,137
  • Jan 6, 2013 10:16am Jan 6, 2013 10:16am
Quoting rolo1128
Hey Meshka,
As far as the euraud trade we both took, I was looking at the targets you planned. Do you not include recent Weekly HCR's as a possiable first target in this trade??? Heres a couple charts. Maybe you have already taken profit though. What you think? Thanks.
yes i closed it before weekend for +50 pips or so. will be looking to sell it little higher if possible at market open again if its mood will not change radical looking at the Friday close I am confident enough it will sink further to my targets. Yes weekly HCR is actual target ... if not the end of the week i would go to BE at that level.
all is eternal - this is good news for people who loves bad news
  • #122,138
  • Jan 6, 2013 10:30am Jan 6, 2013 10:30am
Quoting meshka
yes i closed it before weekend for +50 pips or so. will be looking to sell it little higher if possible at market open again if its mood will not change radical looking at the Friday close I am confident enough it will sink further to my targets. Yes weekly HCR is actual target ... if not the end of the week i would go to BE at that level.
Thought so. Thanks!!! Trying to make sure I get the first targets down to a science as much as possible. Then anything positive after that is a bonus.
The Eyes Believe What They See And The Ears Believe What Others Say.
  • #122,139
  • Jan 6, 2013 10:51am Jan 6, 2013 10:51am
here is my view on EURUSD.. Cable is similar also. I think its not worth to risk to go up in this picture. maybe if You good enough with intraday countertrend trading.. i dont know.
Inverted weekly H/S will be actual if last big BEOB candle will become invalidated next week and we will face clear strong close above 1.3120 level. but I dont think so...
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all is eternal - this is good news for people who loves bad news
  • #122,140
  • Jan 6, 2013 10:53am Jan 6, 2013 10:53am
Quoting Microtrader_
Dear Trader Felllows,

At first I would like to say thank you for your generous work with building this forum, giving a lot of extremely valuable trading information and teaching less experienced traders. I have been following your activity for quite a long time and I learnt a lot from you and other forums based on your work and I was able to make my trading definitely more effective.

In this post I would like to ask for your openion about a bit more special trading case, you could help me a lot and I
Some weeks ago I noticed among your...
Hey Micro

Welcome to the forum glad it has helped you thus far

Gaps are definitely another concept which we can profit off, and another tool to have in our tool box. I have trade gaps more aggressively in the past. Where I would buy/sell on the open with a VERY VERY low risk amount and then I can add into that position using a fixed equity stop instead of a pip amount as the gap closes. This works fine, I have done that for a long time. BUT it's also a lot of work sometimes. Sometimes gaps can run and run. Look at the yen pairs. They haven't closed for hundreds of pips. Gaps are by no means automatic. My preferred way of trading gaps now is using confluence when price gaps into an important area. This better allows me to dictate a fixed stop loss(like we would trading a pinbar). The target for me is generally the gap close. But often times price bounces strong just before the gap closes and will close it later. The smaller the gap the quicker it usually closes but then yes spreads and potential become an issue. What broker you use will depend on how aggressive you are as a trader as well as what you are going for. If you are trying to squeak out 5-10 pips on a small gap you are going to need a really friendly sunday open broker with low spreads. I generally look for medium to large size gaps.

So you can see on the gap on the eur/jpy(which I will link here again for others). That I used a critical area to help me know it was a good time to sell.
http://www.forexfactory.com/newreply...eply&p=6299117

This is what we do in here with PA bars etc. It's confluence at its finest. High probability entry and we work from there

Again welcome
Mike
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