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  • #9,621
  • Jan 3, 2013 10:59am Jan 3, 2013 10:59am
Quoting mierzyk
Hi there,

Took the losing trade today. Was wondering whether my analysis was correct. What were your views on this one?

http://img10.imageshack.us/img10/7334/eu20130103.jpg

Third last candle is LO. It has followed bearish engulfing patternt. Even if low would have been broken, I would not consider going short- green above red. Then LO candle created double bottom higher close, same time the low of the previous day was broken. Second candle with green over red. Red is sloping up, yellow is neutral. There is enough room before EMA200....
OK firstly i use the 200ema as my guide. I stick to a certain rule which is that i trade away from the 200ema.
If we are going to trade towards the 200ema this will be a counter trend trade.
Theres nothing wrong with taking a CT trade but it is riskier and you need experience.
If you are still learning then trade away from the 200ema.

If you have a look at my chart you will see price below the 200ema and above the 800ema . Before todays move i expected price to go to the 800ema.
For here we might get a bounce off the 800ema and price will go back to bullish or price will break the 800ema and become bearish.
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X-man the legendary conqueror of markets
  • #9,622
  • Jan 3, 2013 11:34am Jan 3, 2013 11:34am
Illilii, thanks for your earlier reply re plotting fibs. Now I'm asking Ph the same question. Ph, what do you use? Thanks.
  • #9,623
  • Jan 3, 2013 1:22pm Jan 3, 2013 1:22pm
Thankyou Phx and X-Man. Nothing helps as much as your clarification.
Remember I'm a newbie!
  • #9,624
  • Jan 4, 2013 2:19am Jan 4, 2013 2:19am
Quoting X-Man
[size=3][color=Blue]OK firstly i use the 200ema as my guide. I stick to a certain rule which is that i trade away from the 200ema.
If we are going to trade towards the 200ema this will be a counter trend trade.
Theres nothing wrong with taking a CT trade but it is riskier and you need experience.
If you are still learning then trade away from the 200ema.

If you have a look at my chart you will see price below the 200ema and above the 800ema . Before todays move i expected price to go to the 800ema.
For here we might get a bounce off the...
Thanks Xman for the clarification,happy new year to you,wishing you a blossom 2013.This analysis is on the one hour time frame,please will this be applicable on the higher timeframes,like the 4hr and daily,if not,kindly throw some light on the best way to go about it.Thanks.
  • #9,625
  • Jan 4, 2013 2:40am Jan 4, 2013 2:40am
Guys watch out for today its NFP friday so anything can happen
During these days price dont respect anything.
I never traded NFP its just a gamble and just cause pain for nothing.

Other than that i see price did come right down to the 800ema.
The bulls might want to come to the party to test the bears resistance.
Price might retrace to the 50ema or the 800ema.
If these resistance areas hold then the bears will continue to be in power.

If you look at the TDI the MBL is right down at the 32 level.
The MBL loves the 50 level.
Theres also a bullish divergance and if you look futher to the left you will see price is currently at support.

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X-man the legendary conqueror of markets
  • #9,626
  • Jan 4, 2013 2:46am Jan 4, 2013 2:46am
Could you share your 200 EMA indicator. I saw some other guys having it in the 15min thread, but dont know how its called.
Thoughts are things
  • #9,627
  • Jan 4, 2013 2:52am Jan 4, 2013 2:52am
Quoting Wilmartfx
Thanks Xman for the clarification,happy new year to you,wishing you a blossom 2013.This analysis is on the one hour time frame,please will this be applicable on the higher timeframes,like the 4hr and daily,if not,kindly throw some light on the best way to go about it.Thanks.
Thanks buddy I wish you the same
Yes this will basically work on all the TFs.
I mastered this on the 15min TF for early entries.

I will also show you guys how to use the HTF as an advantage and for setups then we just execute them on the 1h.

everything is 1 and 1 is everything .

I learnt all this from a very good trader. He took my trading skills to a new level.
X-man the legendary conqueror of markets
  • #9,628
  • Jan 4, 2013 2:55am Jan 4, 2013 2:55am
Quoting Quezoy
Could you share your 200 EMA indicator. I saw some other guys having it in the 15min thread, but dont know how its called.
Yeah sure buddy
Its just a guide to give you an idea of the HTfs
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 SimpleEMAv1.ex4   12 KB | 1,523 downloads
X-man the legendary conqueror of markets
  • #9,629
  • Jan 4, 2013 2:58am Jan 4, 2013 2:58am
Quoting X-Man
Yeah sure buddy
Its just a guide to give you an idea of the HTfs
Thoughts are things
  • #9,630
  • Edited 8:31am Jan 4, 2013 8:08am | Edited 8:31am
Quoting X-Man
[size=4][color=Blue]Guys watch out for today its NFP friday so anything can happen
During these days price dont respect anything.
I never traded NFP its just a gamble and just cause pain for nothing.

Other than that i see price did come right down to the 800ema.
The bulls might want to come to the party to test the bears resistance.
Price might retrace to the 50ema or the 800ema.
If these resistance areas hold then the bears will continue to be in power.

If you look at the TDI the MBL is right down at the 32 level.
The MBL loves...
Hi X-man
I am not front of my trading station, therefore I don't have a clue how EU going at the moment. (hey I am on holidays )
I have used one of your chart, to draw out how, I would trade a divergence setup. Trendlines are a powerful indicator.
Price must break a the major trendline, if we were see a major reversal.
I agree, don't trade NFP Fridays. I was fooled by another trader's fake chart that it was possible.
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  • #9,631
  • Jan 4, 2013 8:32am Jan 4, 2013 8:32am
Quoting X-Man
Thanks buddy I wish you the same
Yes this will basically work on all the TFs.
I mastered this on the 15min TF for early entries.

I will also show you guys how to use the HTF as an advantage and for setups then we just execute them on the 1h.

everything is 1 and 1 is everything .

I learnt all this from a very good trader. He took my trading skills to a new level.
Waiting for the next instruction from you. Always write something useful Bless people like you
  • #9,632
  • Jan 4, 2013 10:12am Jan 4, 2013 10:12am
Quoting mierzyk
Hi there,

Took the losing trade today. Was wondering whether my analysis was correct. What were your views on this one?

http://img10.imageshack.us/img10/7334/eu20130103.jpg

Third last candle is LO. It has followed bearish engulfing patternt. Even if low would have been broken, I would not consider going short- green above red. Then LO candle created double bottom higher close, same time the low of the previous day was broken. Second candle with green over red. Red is sloping up, yellow is neutral. There is enough room before EMA200....
Nobody in their response has mentioned this, but if you had looked at the Daily you would have seen a large Bearish Engulfing from a Double Top at a Major S&R level.
Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
  • #9,633
  • Jan 4, 2013 10:17am Jan 4, 2013 10:17am
Hi traders,

I'm new to forex factory. I have been reading this Thread for a month as a guest. Everything looks so simple.

I did my first trade today. CAD is rallying after better macroeconomic daten from Canada.
Was this a good setup for reentry?

Thank you for reply.


Hermann
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Wherever the fish are, that's where we go.
  • #9,634
  • Jan 4, 2013 11:08am Jan 4, 2013 11:08am
AUDUSD H4 and EURJPY H4 trades

1. I entered long after the steep bullish TDI cross as the price was in uptrend on H4 and even on D TFs and I expcted the price to retest the latest high. This trade hit SL, perhaps because after the quite considerable up-leg there as no momentum for retest of the high? Any comment ppreciated.

2. I entred long after steep bullish TDI cross as pricewas in uptrend on H4 and D TFs. I set my TP just below the next BRN of 115.00. TP hit quite quickly if it would not have done I would closed it manually becaue of the NFP.

I am happy to see that X-Man returned to his thread

take care,
thrax
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  • #9,635
  • Jan 4, 2013 11:42am Jan 4, 2013 11:42am
NFP Trade

Took this trade based on upward momentum with cross of TDI on the 1H with bullish divergence.
waited for 15TF to show green crossing yellow, red and 50 level.
also trendline was broken as well as previous lower timeframe resistance.

Ended up taking profit in the higher timeframe resistance.

Cya next week.
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  • #9,636
  • Edited 2:17pm Jan 4, 2013 1:57pm | Edited 2:17pm
Quoting thrax
AUDUSD H4 and EURJPY H4 trades

1. I entered long after the steep bullish TDI cross as the price was in uptrend on H4 and even on D TFs and I expcted the price to retest the latest high. This trade hit SL, perhaps because after the quite considerable up-leg there as no momentum for retest of the high? Any comment ppreciated.

take care,
thrax
Hey Thrax,
I have only recently been following this thread the last month and I admit I have not managed to crawl through all the pages yet. By no means am I an expert, I just thought I would comment on this particular trade because I as well took the trade as well. I expected a possible retest, but I can't speculate as to why it retested and broke the previous high.

Here is what I saw the bar after I took the short (~1 bar later on the capture)
http://i169.photobucket.com/albums/u...audusdsell.gif

Afterwards, it did get stopped out but I noticed that it adjusted the channel and a few bars later it gave a second TDI cross. Since I don't have a lot of experience trading this method yet and wasn't sure if the proper protocol was to wait for the next channel bounce or take this one- so I took it. After the TDI cross with a confirming candle, I shorted the AUDUSD at the second candle that confirmed the trade. My first TP was hit for +60, and the second I closed at a candle color change for +1 pip.

Yes, the second chart has more information on it- I've been experimenting with different ways to mark trades for me to review at a later time.

http://i169.photobucket.com/albums/u...hort2final.gif


I also took the EURJPY trade, hit my first TP for +80

BTW I did not include a spread in my profit numbers, due to the fact that yours may vary from my favorite broker. Their AUD/USD is normally .2-.7 pip with a small commission, and the EURJPY is generally .4-1.0 again with a small commission as well.
  • #9,637
  • Jan 4, 2013 10:32pm Jan 4, 2013 10:32pm
Quoting dee50
Nobody in their response has mentioned this, but if you had looked at the Daily you would have seen a large Bearish Engulfing from a Double Top at a Major S&R level.
Great analysis Dee, this is the sort of HTF things us noobies must look for , i only looked at the general trend before on HTF, but now you have posted this i will look more carefully in future.
ROB
  • #9,638
  • Jan 4, 2013 11:06pm Jan 4, 2013 11:06pm
Quoting robuk
Hey Scorps , I think with what you are doing already , you will soon be getting on very nicely --do loads of back testing , The only thing i could add would be to follow X-MANS advice and learn only EU 1 hour first , and study PHX62 charts .and never give up !!
Thanks a lot

Hard working is nice
I Have Learned to Take Some Losses to Make Profits
  • #9,639
  • Jan 4, 2013 11:08pm Jan 4, 2013 11:08pm
Quoting X-Man
Yeah sure buddy
Its just a guide to give you an idea of the HTfs
Thanks X
I Have Learned to Take Some Losses to Make Profits
  • #9,640
  • Jan 5, 2013 7:28am Jan 5, 2013 7:28am
Did anybody else take notice of the GBP/USD trades on the 1H this week?


Jan 2, +160
Short, hit first TP for +65, let the second one run, ended up closing before the new session day for +95

http://i169.photobucket.com/albums/u...d1hrtrades.gif

Jan 3 cable 1H was good for +104

Jan 4 cable 1H was good for +93


Also, anyone watching these guys for a new 4H signal starting next week:

CAD/CHF Short
EUR/CAD Long
USD/SGD Short- Although the channel angle has me a little skeptical, could still be good for ~30-50 pips
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