Third Screen Strategy - Dr. Alexander Elder

I've held it for a while now. No reason to get out at this time unless "the sh** hits the S/L"

Thanks and good luck.

Agreed! Can't go wrong with the positive swap and the fundamental problems now surfacing in Japan. Good luck to you as well Slim!

Below are EUR/AUD Weekly & Daily charts.

We are currently trying to take out the 1.218 level which served as weekly support earlier this year.

EUR/AUD Target: 1.17

my first triple screen strategy trade

checklists :
weekly trend up (MACD)
daily trend down (W %)
bullish gartley
261.8 extension , 161.8 projection & 76.4 retracement intercept @ .933++ ( potential D )


or did i miss something?

CADCHF

9 Reasons Why the Dollar Still Looks Like a Great Long-Term Bet
by Jack Crooks


Now that the European Central Bank has “saved” the euro and our Federal Reserve has declared easy money as far as the eye can see, isn’t the dollar going to get killed?

Well, on the surface that makes sense. But I think those concerns are short-term impacts. I still believe the dollar has entered a multi-year bull market, which began back in March 2008, when the U.S. dollar index bottomed.Now that the European Central Bank has "saved" the euro and our Federal Reserve has declared easy money as far as the eye can see, isn't the dollar going to get killed?

Here are nine themes I see playing out that would ensure a bull market for the dollar:

Theme #1—Euro no longer a viable challenger against the dollar

The euro is not saved yet, by any means. I expect another crisis to rear its ugly head within the next six months or sooner. But even assuming the euro is "saved," I would expect at least a decade of deflation and slow growth. As a result, the euro will fall of its own weight relative to the dollar and other major world currencies.

Theme #2 — Most of the monetary policy impact is behind us

Each of the Fed's new programs has been increasingly less effective in helping the real economy. Sooner or later the market will clear itself. And when it does the Fed will quickly take back all those excess reserves, which means U.S. dollar supply will fall. Therefore, fewer dollars will be out there as demand grows with recovery.

Theme #3 — China's reserves are falling, and hot money is fleeing!

I expect this trend to continue as China's economic growth slips further. This again goes to the point of a declining global supply of dollars, which will be good for the dollar's price.

Theme #4 — U.S. real assets look cheap

In a world increasingly looking for good long-term investment ideas, U.S. real assets, including real estate and natural resources, look very competitive. This should lead to strong foreign direct investment into the United States. Indeed, good for the dollar.

Theme #5 — The ramp up in U.S. domestic energy production helps the buck

There are two ways this is bullish for the dollar: 1) Falling oil imports should help cut our trade deficit; and 2) It leads to more international investment into the U.S. by investors wanting to position accordingly.

Theme #6 — Global rebalancing taking place in China and Germany

As the global backdrop for export dependent countries changes, the top exporters — China and Germany — will have to increase domestic demand in order to grow. This will likely help U.S. exports and be the real beginning of the long awaited global rebalancing. It will be dollar positive for sure!

Theme #7 — Rising pool of U.S. domestic savings

The credit crisis has triggered a palpable shift in U.S. consumer savings/consumption patterns. I expect this to be secular in nature. As the U.S. pool of savings for domestic corporations increases, the dependence on international funding should fall. If the U.S. current account deficit improves dramatically, the dollar will benefit.

Theme #8 — Falling commodity prices

As China decelerates, commodity prices should fall dramatically. This doesn't mean all commodities nor does it mean the secular rally is over. But over the next 1-2 years, this will put pressure on emerging markets and will likely mean U.S. investors keep more of their money onshore for local (U.S.) investment opportunities. That means more dollars staying home instead of being exchanged into other currencies.

Theme #9 — $2 TRILLION in U.S. corporate cash on the sidelines

Once this mountain of cash is redeployed to fund technologies where U.S. companies have a commanding lead, such as in nanotechnology and 3-D printing, it could virtually trigger a U.S. renaissance and would be a magnet for foreign direct investments. That would be very dollar bullish.


Needless to say the ideas I've listed above have implications for asset markets that go way beyond the U.S. dollar. Over the next several weeks I will pick up on each of these themes in greater detail to show you why I believe it's way too soon to write off the dollar or make a long-term bet on the decline in America.

Best wishes,

Another reason to be BULLISH on the USD:

Bond Investors Vulnerable to Big Losses from a Small Uptick of Interest Rates
The worst of the “fiscal cliff” impact may have been averted, at least for the moment. But now investors face a new concern: The debt ceiling drama.

The U.S. reached the current statutory debt limit of $16.4 trillion on December 31, 2012. And the Treasury Department has been employing creative financing measures ever since to finance about $200 billion in deficits in 2013.

This means Congress must act, again, as early as mid-February to prevent a U.S. debt default. Recall that a similar debt drama played out in the summer of 2011 leading to a downgrade of the U.S. credit rating. Now here we go again!

Washington essentially kicked the can down the road again with some tax increases, but no meaningful spending cuts. Instead, the $110 billion in automatic spending cuts have been delayed for a couple more months. In other words, this deal does little to address America’s chronic deficits.

As a result, we can surely expect more volatility in financial markets early this year as the debt ceiling drama plays out.

But …

The Bond Market Will Likely Get Hurt More Than the Stock Market

With fiscal cliff uncertainty hanging over the markets in recent weeks, you might have expected U.S. Treasury bond prices to surge higher. That’s the typical flight-to-safety trade we’ve seen in the past, including the last debt ceiling drama in 2011. But the opposite happened this time around.

In fact, Treasury bonds have been falling steadily in price with interest rates rising in recent weeks. The iShares Barclays 20 Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), which tracks long-term government bonds, was one of the worst performing during the month of December, falling 2.9 percent. And it was down for full-year 2012 while the S&P 500 Index gained 13.5 percent.

The question for investors: Is this just a short-term reversal for Treasury bonds, or a lasting shift in trend.
http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/2621/chart2.jpg
Treasury bonds have been enjoying an unprecedented bull market since interest rates peaked in 1981. In the three decades since then, 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yields have declined from a high of 14 percent, to just 1.5 percent last year.

The corresponding gains for bond holders in recent years have been impressive. In fact, TLT has produced total returns of 11.2 percent over the past five years, and 7.8 percent over the past decade.

These equity-like returns are well above the norm for fixed income funds. And just like the unsustainably high returns for stock funds during the 1990s, they certainly can’t be counted on going forward.

The Risks Ahead …

After such a dramatic decline for interest rates, it’s clear the risks are on the upside with higher rates likely in the years ahead. In fact, it’s only a question of when — not if — yields will begin a sustained uptrend with bond prices falling.

And don’t think for a minute that it’s only Treasury bonds that are vulnerable.

Indeed, mutual fund and ETF flows follow returns. And performance-chasing investors have poured a lot of money into bond funds and ETFs of all types in recent years. High quality corporate bonds have performed particularly well with average returns of nearly 10 percent annually over the past three decades.

Money has poured into bond funds and ETFs as a result. In 1984 total fund holdings of corporate debt was just $16 billion. But today funds hold more than $1.8 trillion — about 18 percent of the value of the entire U.S. corporate bond market, according to Merrill Lynch research!

So the big risk is that bond fund and ETF investors could stampede to sell at the slightest hint of an uptrend in interest rates. Such bond fund outflows could easily feed into a vicious cycle of plunging bond prices pushing higher interest rates even higher and prompting more selling.

It’s important you realize that even a relatively small uptick in interest rates can have a large negative impact on price. Take TLT as an example.
http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/2621/chart2.jpg
In 2010, 10-year Treasury yields rose from a low of 2.5 percent in October to a high of 3.7 percent by February 2011. That’s a yield increase in interest rates of just 1.2 percent. But the price of TLT fell by 18 percent over the same period.

A bigger backup in interest rates happened in 2009, and TLT plunged over 26 percent in value. In fact, interest rate fluctuations of this kind are quite normal; typically they occur just about every year.

Soon we’ll experience another uptick in yields, you can count on that. But at some point, interest rates will just keep on rising, signaling a new secular bear market for bonds. So if you own fixed income funds and ETFs, you better stay alert for this major shift in market trend.

Good investing,

Mike

Fed Officials Divided on Bond Buys

By JON HILSENRATH And JEFFREY SPARSHOTT

A new fault line has opened up at the often-divided Federal Reserve: When to halt the bond-buying programs that are adding $85 billion a month of Treasury and mortgage securities to the central bank's assets.

Minutes of the Fed's Dec. 11-12 policy meeting showed that officials were divided about when to halt the programs, with a few wanting to continue them until year-end, several others wanting to end the programs well before then and some wanting to halt them right away.

While exposing the rift, the minutes left little clear indication which course the central bank would choose. In its official policy statement, it has been saying since September that it would continue the bond-buying programs until the job market substantially improves.

"A few members expressed the view that ongoing asset purchases would likely be warranted until about the end of 2013," the minutes said. A few others called broadly for "considerable policy accommodation," while several others "thought that it would probably be appropriate to slow or to stop purchases well before the end of 2013." The minutes also held out mid-year as a possible end-point.

It is a hugely consequential decision for the Fed and likely the next big challenge for Ben Bernanke in what could be his final year at the helm of the central bank, where he has been chairman since 2006.

If the Fed buys bonds at the current pace through the end of the year, it will be expanding its $2.9 trillion portfolio by another $1.02 trillion. Ending the program could send shockwaves through markets, which have grown accustomed to repeated Fed stimulus. But the Fed made clear in the minutes released Thursday that officials remain preoccupied with uncertainties about the benefits of the programs, and their potential costs.

"While almost all members thought that the asset-purchase program begun in September had been effective and supportive of growth, they also generally saw that the benefits of ongoing purchases were uncertain and that the potential costs could rise as the size of the balance sheet increased," the minutes showed.

Officials appear to be focused on three potential endpoints for the program, with one cluster of officials centered on mid-year, another cluster around year-end and the policy hawks, who are in a minority and oppose the program, wanting to end it right away.

Among those who want to continue, "participants were approximately evenly divided between those who judged that it would likely be appropriate for the [Fed] complete its asset purchases sometime around the middle of 2013 and those who judged that it would likely be appropriate for the asset purchases to continue beyond that date," the minutes said.

Though the Fed has tied its decision to the performance of the labor market, it hasn't sent down firm benchmarks for how it will judge whether the labor market has improved "substantially."

In a September news conference, Mr. Bernanke said, "We're looking for something that involves unemployment coming down in a sustained way, not necessarily a rapid way, because I don't know if our tools are that strong, but we'd like to see an economy which is strong enough that it will support improving labor market conditions and unemployment that's declining gradually over time."

The unemployment rate dropped from 8.3% in July to 7.7% in November, but throughout the recovery it has moved in fits and starts. The Labor Department will report the unemployment rate for December on Friday. Officials also are looking at other indicators, including payroll employment growth, overall economic growth and labor force participation.

AUD/USD

I'm going to post Monthly, Weekly, and Daily charts with major support / resistance as well as trend lines just to give you an idea as to why I am short and where I believe we are headed.

Monthly - Lower Highs from a monthly perspective for over 2 years

Weekly - Trend Line in effect since 7/31/2011 still being respected. Remember, the longer a TL holds the stronger it gets. Also, it has more prededence as it is on a larger time frame. Weekly BEEB (bearish engulfing bar) candle on 12/19.

Daily - Daily TL Broken & Confirmed on 12/21


**I hope the charts are easy to read and understand. Remember, this is my analysis and I could be wrong, it wouldn't be the first time. But as long as price doesn't close above 1.06 on a weekly basis then I am safe. If it closes above 1.06 then I will cut my losses and re-assess.

I am also bearish on GBP/USD, just not as much so as I am on AUD/USD. Keep in mind, price has not closed above 1.63 for over a year so this is a pretty strong resistance area when looking at the weekly charts.

1st Target: 1.5925
2nd Target: 1.55

Below is my Weekly & Daily charts for Cable:

Needless to say I am also bearish on NZD/USD as well as EUR/USD.

I'll try and post an analysis with charts for NZD/USD at the close of this week.

Thanks. I read your analysis. I am on the other side of that trade now. I needed to see how EurUsd reacted upon test of 1.30. It held nicely, along with the 50 MA on the daily, which is moving higher. I am now long all the way. my projected price levels for the following 6 months are in Red on the attached weekly charts.

Good luck on your trades Alorente! Just curious, do you see these targets due largely to USD weakness? How are these levels fundamentally supported?

I crosscheck many indicators and time frames and the picture they are painting, point to these numbers. Regarding USD, yes, I expect it to flounder. We could well break the neckline on the daily USD Index Head & Shoulders. See attached.

We´ll see...

Thanks for sharing your perspective, it is always good to get other people's opinions. Take care Alorente.

Fundamentally, the reasons behind these projections are quite simple:

1- Enormous amounts of liquidity injected by all Central Banks. The world is swimming in money.

2- Historically high Bond prices and low yields will attract less money to the bond market.

3- Money will be entering the Stock Market in increasing amounts, especially after we make new highs in all the indexes.

4- China is finally on an upswing and its stock market is booming. Also the Dax, Nikkei, Ibex and many others.

5- Commodity prices are starting to climb with China´s turn around. That will do wonders for commodity currencies: AUD, NZD, CAD.

Barring an unlikely European/Greek surprise, it is risk on all the way for the next 6 to 9 months. There may be a small correction here and there, but overall, I see clear sailing ahead. We´ll climb the proverbial Wall of Worry.

I wanted to expand on a few of your points if possible.

1) If there are enormous amounts of liquidity injected by ALL Central Banks that this shouldn't have any real effect on any particular currency as they are all "devaluing" themselves slowly anyways.

2) This is true and this can be seen happening right before our eyes. During just the first week of 2013. Long-term Treasuries lost roughly 3% of their value in only a few days. That was enough to wipe out an entire YEAR'S WORTH OF INTEREST, given the 3% yield on long-term bonds. Higher Treasury yields mean that the Treasury Department will be forced to pay a higher interest rate to attract buyers. Over time, these higher rates can start to increase demand for Treasury products. That's why higher Treasury yields can increase the value of the dollar. Right now you can see that the benchmark yield on the 10-year Treasury Note has exploded out of a multi-month range.

It hit 1.97% earlier this morning, the highest since last May, after breaking a downtrend that goes all the way back to February of 2011!
http://finance.moneyandmarkets.com/m...2622/chart.gif[/quote]

Remember, there is an inverse correlation between Bond Value and Bond Yield. That's why Treasury yields move in the opposite direction of Treasury bond values.

3) A surge in demand for the US stock market does not necessarily mean that all other risk assets will be affected in the same way due to the fact that this "new surge" in demand for stocks suggests a higher demand for US dollars which is the currency used to pay for these assets.

4) You are right, China is definitely in an upswing at this time and looks as though it has in fact bottomed out. This could be AUD and NZD positive assuming it can trump all of the other factors going on at this time. What happens when US interest rates are raised by even the slightest amount in the near future? This will cause a new surge of buyers of USD...

5) Commodity prices are NOT climbing as of yet. In fact, Gold is at a 6 month low and Oil has been stuck in a $10 range ($83 - $93) since September 2011. Unless we see a major uptick in Gold (which I don't see happening as of yet) then the affects on commodity currencies will not be positive. Again, what happens if USD interest rates rise by even the slightest amount? This would be Gold/Silver, AUD, NZD, CAD, EUR, GBP negative.

Below is a post made by member "PipTrapper" from a different thread. My reason for posting it is because he does an EXCELLENT job of explaining the fundamental issues and potential results in a clear, precise manner in regards to EUR/USD.

I believe the ECB does want a lower valued Euro against its main trading partners (including the US). The problem is that there is a much bigger fish to fry when it comes to ECB monetary policy. That bigger fish is a combination of interest rates and inflation. Clearly inflation is quite low in Germany, but higher in the peripheral nations. This is due to the "broken monetary transmission channels" the ECB has been crying about for some time now and it has more to do with the insolvency of Greece, Cyprus, Spain, Italy, Portugal and Ireland. Under normal circumstances, lowering the overnight rate would provide sufficient monetary stimulus to help the economy recover, but due to a broken mechanism, the lower rates are not helping where they should (the periphery). Until such time as Spain and/or Italy step up and apply for aid from the ESM/OMT program, that mechanism will remain broken. The existence of the OMT backstop (without being triggered) has helped to stop or at least slow the bleeding, but has done nothing to cure the cut. Along the same analogy, what we have in periphery Europe is an open cut, and as long as that cut remains untreated, the Eurozone will continue to suffer economically. So, yes... capital will continue to flow into the Eurozone and as such the Euro will be propped up, but it will certainly be to the detriment of the EZ's export markets and thus prolong the pain. The EUR/USD pair will still fall though. However it will not be based on Euro debasement, but rather USD recovery as the US leads the way to the global economic recovery... failing which, we get another bearish equity market in a risk averse move with capital fleeing to safety in the USD. Either way, the USD wins and the E/U pair goes down. It won't go down easily though, but that's probably better than a quick drop due to how such a move would be interpreted. A slow and steady fall will be seen as a stable Euro currency whereas a quick drop would solicit more official intervention and delay the Euro's ultimate destination of below 1.25xx. So as long as everything keeps chugging along slowly with no panic in the periphery bond markets, the E/U pair will be allowed to graciously fall to its fair value.

If you want to be bullish the Euro, may I suggest keeping an eye on the EUR/JPY and EUR/AUD pairs as they seem to have a lot more bullish promise than any other Euro cross. Don't buy now. Rather wait for a nice pullback which I believe we will see during Q4 2012 corporate earnings reports over the next few weeks.

Again, the above post was made by member PipTrapper, not me!

USD Fundamental Overview for 2013

Bonds are supposed to be the safest of safe investments. At least, according to many of the talking heads on Wall Street — but nothing could be further from the truth right now!

That's because long-term bonds have been driven to astronomically sky-high levels by the most reckless monetary policy in the history of the world ... which in turn has prompted the biggest influx of money into fixed income investments ever!

That pushes prices higher. And since yields move in the opposite direction of bond prices, they have collapsed to miniscule levels, dramatically raising the risk that months and months of income can be vaporized in the blink of an eye!

Just look at what happened in the first week of 2013!

Long-term Treasuries lost roughly 3% of their value in only a few days. That was enough to wipe out an entire YEAR'S WORTH OF INTEREST, given the 3% yield on long-term bonds!
http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/2625a/chart2.gif


Look, the world has been dog-piling like mad into bonds – Treasuries, mortgage bonds, junk bonds, emerging market bonds. We're talking about hundreds of billions of dollars in inflows, the biggest flood of money into bonds EVER.

As with just about every bubble over the past two decades, it's been prompted by reckless Federal Reserve policy. Just like the bubbles in dot-coms, housing, and other asset classes, it was always doomed to burst ...

And it's clear that we're seeing the classic signs that this bubble has already begun to burst right now!

Remember, there is an inverse correlation between Bond Value and Bond Yield. That's why Treasury yields move in the opposite direction of Treasury bond values. Higher Treasury yields mean that the Treasury Department will be forced to pay a higher interest rate to attract buyers. Over time, these higher rates can start to increase demand for Treasury products.

**IMPORTANT**: So what happens to the hundreds of billions of dollars that flooded the Bond market? Well, I would imagine that most of it is going to make its way back into the stock market. A surge in demand for the US stock market does not necessarily mean that all other risk assets will be affected in the same way due to the fact that this "new surge" in demand for stocks suggests a higher demand for US dollars which is the currency used to pay for these assets. As you can see, money will leave the Bond market and make its way to the stock market. I'll repeat this again, this new surge in demand for stocks suggests a higher demand for US dollars which is the currency used to pay for these assets.


PipTrapper's Scenarios:

1) USD recovery as the US leads the way to the global economic recovery...

OR

2) If global recovery slows then we get another bearish equity market in a risk averse move with capital fleeing to safety in the USD.

Either way, the USD wins...

In Currency Market, What's Old Is New Again

By IRA IOSEBASHVILI

In 2013, the U.S. dollar has been behaving like its old self.

Ever since the financial crisis, the dollar has been treated as a haven, rising when investors are feeling fearful and falling when they are feeling brave, a marketwide pattern that came to be known as "risk-on, risk-off" trading.

But this year, the dollar has forged a different path.

It has risen on positive news, gaining against the euro on Jan. 2 after lawmakers in Washington reached a budget accord, potentially averting a U.S. recession. Just days later, when the government released disappointing jobs numbers, the dollar fell.

It is a throwback to precrisis times that has caused a stir among currency investors and strategists. They wonder whether the moves are a sign of a bigger change in trading patterns to come. Some even speculate that the risk-on, risk-off trade may be fading.

http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/i...0108181430.jpg
Some currency investors see a return to trading on fundamentals, not buying and selling on global macroeconomic worries.

That would signal that investors are returning to look more closely at the fundamentals of various countries, buying and selling depending on the health of the economies and outlook for rates rather than based on global macroeconomic worries.

Some of that already can be seen in the dollar's performance this year. Instead of rising and falling against most currencies simultaneously, the greenback has had a decidedly mixed year.

The dollar has risen 0.9% against the euro. At the same time, it has gained against the yen, the South African rand and the Indian rupee. On the flip side, it has fallen against the Mexican peso and Australian dollar.

"It's unlikely that we will go back to the times when the dollar broadly strengthened or weakened against everything," said James Kwok, who runs €12 billion ($16 billion) in currency funds for Amundi London. "Now, the case for dollar strength or weakness becomes more complicated."

Mr. Kwok is reducing the size of what had been his main trade over the past two years, the euro's value against the dollar. The currency pair has long been one of the most popular ways to play off the dollar's role as a haven: Investors embraced the safety of the dollar whenever Europe's debt problems deepened or bought the euro in calmer times.

http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/i...0108183610.jpg

If Europe's crisis continues to ease, the U.S. economy muddles along and China manages its slowdown, there may be fewer reasons to flee to havens, some investors said.

Mr. Kwok said if the U.S. economy continues to improve, the dollar could benefit. He is betting on the greenback against the yen. He also cited the Japanese government's push to weaken the yen as another factor for the trade. Meanwhile, Mr. Kwok is buying other currencies that should gain if global growth picks up, such as the Mexican peso and Canadian dollar, betting they will rise against the euro.

"For the last few years, we've been in an environment where global shocks in the U.S. and Europe drove everything," said Jens Nordvig, chief currency strategist at Nomura in New York. "Now, traders are starting to think more normally about monetary policy and fundamentals."

The trading shift was cemented on Jan. 3, when minutes from the Federal Reserve's December meeting showed several board members advocating an early end to the central bank's bond buying, which had churned cash into financial markets and weakened the greenback. Investors in the past have equated monetary easing with a weaker currency, in part because lower rates make a currency less attractive to hold.

The dollar shot to a three-week high against the euro, and its moves since then haven't followed the old pattern. Traders particularly noted the dollar's moves after the U.S. jobs data on Friday. The report was disappointing to some investors, something that would normally drive them into the dollar. Instead, the currency dropped against the Australian dollar and other "risk" currencies.

Jon Jonsson, who manages about $95 million for J.P. Morgan's JPM +0.20% Ex-G4 fund, which usually buys currencies other than the dollar, euro, yen and British pound, increased his bets on the Mexican peso, which he sees gaining as much as 7% against the dollar this year if the country keeps inflation under control and continues to see strong employment growth.

Like Mr. Kwok, he intends to increase his exposure to emerging markets while limiting his bets on the euro against the dollar.

As the U.S. economic recovery gains traction, investors also are trying to factor in an eventual end to the Fed's fiscal stimulus. For the past four years, the Fed has pumped money into the economy and kept rates low, pushing investors to search for yield outside U.S. government bonds. Any signs that the end of Fed support is closer are likely to bring yield seekers into the greenback, driving it higher.

"If the automatic relationship between U.S. yields and economic data is restored, the risk-on-risk-off regime will come to an end," said Kit Juckes, a strategist with Société Générale GLE.FR +3.17% in London, in a note to clients. "This is going to happen at some point this year."

Still, the dollar could quickly snap back to its trading pattern of the past few years if last year's crises re-emerge. Japan's government is set on weakening the yen, the greenback's major rival as a haven. And large investors like the dollar in times of turmoil because it is one of the easiest currencies to buy and sell against most other currencies.

"The dollar is king right now…due to a lack of other alternatives you can deploy to in size," said Eric Upin, chief investment officer for Makena Capital Management, which manages more than $16 billion on behalf of large institutional investors.

Others think the dollar will come out the winner, no matter what.

While any eruption of political wrangling over the coming round of fiscal talks would likely send safety-seeking investors to the dollar, the greenback can also benefit from the relatively strong U.S. economy, said Samarjit Shankar, managing director of global strategy at BNY Mellon in Boston.

"Improving risk appetite is not necessarily bad for the dollar, while risk aversion is still good for the dollar," Mr. Shankar said.