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  • #2,561
  • Jan 2, 2013 7:36am Jan 2, 2013 7:36am
Here's the pattern from Prechter's... just a possibility at this point... I am asking myself what would the count be if 3233 gives way....
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  • #2,562
  • Jan 2, 2013 7:42am Jan 2, 2013 7:42am
went long eru, looking at this cliff deal , no real cuts, just more taxation , they kicked the can down the road on major spending problems for 2 months, debt ceiling deadline, more bs, dollar will fall, lol

dollar yen getting complicated, both the dollar and yen are getting weaker, stick with eru play
  • #2,563
  • Jan 2, 2013 7:48am Jan 2, 2013 7:48am
Quoting driveway
I a new, do u have any tips?
eurdollar is trading 1.3262.
short or long posion?

Welcome to the game...

Its your money... you have to pick the direction.... watch a while if unsure...
  • #2,564
  • Jan 2, 2013 8:04am Jan 2, 2013 8:04am
Still correcting...
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  • #2,565
  • Jan 2, 2013 10:39am Jan 2, 2013 10:39am
EURUSD trades 1.3190...

This is still corrective off move off 3308 high... Volatility off LOndon Fixing driving out weak longs....

I am not worried on my larger trend Bullish view until the lows of 12/16 taken out... 1.3140/50.... Still Buying dips.. adding to Long, mindful of overall position size...
  • #2,566
  • Jan 2, 2013 10:42am Jan 2, 2013 10:42am
Quoting Crassius
Should the recent lows of 3233 give way at this point, a test of 3180 and 3160 areas could follow...

Always pays to think of all the different ways it could unfold....

To me 3172 is a critical level to hold, so I don't welcome a test of 3160 at all.... and think it a low probability outcome.

3180 tested and holding thus far...

If it gives 3160 will be tested in quick order.... Fix is over, Europe closed so expect volatility to not exist to test 3160 today...
  • #2,567
  • Jan 2, 2013 11:49am Jan 2, 2013 11:49am
Quoting Crassius

If it gives 3160 will be tested in quick order.... Fix is over, Europe closed so expect volatility to not exist to test 3160 today...
Mission accomplished... I'm sure that flushed out any weak longs that are going to be flushed.... Traded as low as 3155....

Smells like a central bank stop hunt.....
  • #2,568
  • Edited 9:49pm Jan 2, 2013 9:47pm | Edited 9:49pm
Still Bullish... Still Long... China and Japan out today, with thin market conditions trips massive stops below 1.3145,
but chart still shows corrective action at 1.3130.

Staying long given the intense support just below, and the size of the up swing yet to come.
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  • #2,569
  • Jan 3, 2013 7:21pm Jan 3, 2013 7:21pm
Hey Mates.
Though I am not in the trade for EU pair currently, waiting for a retrace to join, in case it goes by the plan, or any other resistance level that can be supported with additional confirmation.

The following chart shows the plan if it plays correctly, I won't say it'll go up or down, the chart will lead the way.

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The cable might show further down moves, my first target was hit after shorting evening star on daily candles chart last midnight. The second target is the fib 127.2 ext.
if the trade will close below 1.6066 price level, then additional retrace in some point is expected and adding short positions on it will be inevitable.

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The Aussie has great moves, please read my blog for more insights, Cypher patterns and more: http://mike-forex.blogspot.com/2013/...ypher-bat.html

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-XQbP7Jq3Y-...s800/AU-4H.png

Green Pips
  • #2,570
  • Jan 3, 2013 8:47pm Jan 3, 2013 8:47pm
Note for the last 18years, she has stayed above her alltime mid aka average price aka 50% etc etc, the average price of any pair is always an interesting level to be at, and monthly does not come around that often.

Note this is the 3rd attack of this level 2131 since 2005 if she can break retest and hold, next level of interest me would be the 200sma then 1 1875 last low then 1 1643 this would be a new low, and a lh ll lh ll on a monthly
  • #2,571
  • Jan 4, 2013 3:38am Jan 4, 2013 3:38am
Quoting Crassius
Still Bullish... Still Long... China and Japan out today, with thin market conditions trips massive stops below 1.3145,
but chart still shows corrective action at 1.3130.

Staying long given the intense support just below...

I had to book a loss as the first trade of the year as 1.3058, the 1.618 extension of my proposed wave a was exceeded, and then 3040 gave out, the bottom of prior wave 4, as we traded decisively outside the base channel...

As noted in the post above, a break out beyond the confluence of those three supports has to call the whole count into question.

This is my most dreaded scenario trading Elliott.... You sometimes don't know you are in a wave 3 after a trend change but rather you think you are in wave C, which is also in five waves so it looks exactly like a wave 3 sometimes, until the channel gives way, even though wave C's are counter-trend moves.... and in this case for me... I lost money along the way, exasperated by too early an entry when I got fooled by the long drawn out sideways Holiday trade into counting a triangle...

What's worse is that wave C's rarely...but sometimes can be 2.618 the length of B, which in this case, we won't exceed until 2932... at that point you know for sure you are no longer in wave C...

Nonetheless.... we can make some judgments about the character of the wave, and in this case I have flipped over and gone short at 3045, eating a loss of 145 pips to start out the year...

We won't get confirmation that this new Bearish count is in fact correct, until we get a correction in three waves that display corrective character... overlap etc... The we know for sure our direction is correct.

Till then the trend change isn't confirmed, but looks and feels very likely given the support that has fallen by the wayside....

I look forward to confirmation in a correction along the way back to the 2600 area and plan to add to my position size then...
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  • #2,572
  • Jan 4, 2013 5:37am Jan 4, 2013 5:37am
Option barrier at 1.3000 is now toast... this paves the way lower...
  • #2,573
  • Edited 6:26am Jan 4, 2013 6:09am | Edited 6:26am
Here is a trend line that is of interest on the daily chart.... should we actually get established below 1.3000, while 1.3123 stays intact to the upside....

1.3123 must stay unmolested for my current bearish stance to continue.... if broken to the upside, I'll have to reassess the market.

As drawn from price extremes, it lines up nearly to the pip with the 2.618 extension of the 2nd wave off the 3308 high.... a common fib relationship...

Correction: Its 1.618 the length of wave 2, measured from the top of wave 2, not 1 as on chart text

This is a very common area to end a wave 3, which I believe is what we are trading now...
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  • #2,574
  • Jan 4, 2013 8:35am Jan 4, 2013 8:35am
Short term low appears to be in in EURUSD completing wave 3... Stops hunt below 1.3000 completes the pattern.

We are now correcting, which should be in three waves, before heading through 1.3000 to put in a wave 5 bottom.... (not today)
  • #2,575
  • Jan 4, 2013 2:43pm Jan 4, 2013 2:43pm
We trade 1.3085 in very thin very late NY conditions... 1/2 hour before Globex close for the weekend...

This is a very good place to be adding to shorts if you are a bear.... The Zone from 3080 to 3120 defines former major support area that should now be cast as strong resistance.

PA inside the move up from 2998 can not yet be said to be corrective..... we need some overlap to occur first...
At this point, a correction in three waves will look exactly like the first three waves of a new uptrend...

1.3125/30 must remain intact for this up move to remain a counter trend correction....
  • #2,576
  • Jan 6, 2013 3:25pm Jan 6, 2013 3:25pm
Good evening to all Capital mates.

I'll try to keep with my posts as I did several months ago, it's hard for me to keep tracking the forums with all other stuff that I am doing...

EURUSD - From the Chart prospective, there is still potential for more down move, it depends a lot on the current retracement, whether it would reach at least fib38.2 level. if it continues to drop more, than level 1.2797 would be the next level for additional retracement with formed Cypher Pattern, wating for confirmed retarcement or something elase to enter the trade.
Please read my Blog for more details: http://mike-forex.blogspot.com/2013/...6070-2013.html

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-jLizPahYxn.../EURUSD-4H.png

AUDUSD - This pair has a lot of patterns forming, Bat, Gartley, Cypher, 2618, Butterfly; expect more bears currently, of course anything can be changed.
Please read my blog for more details: http://mike-forex.blogspot.com/2013/...-buttefly.html

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-p6Qfym1JGw...s800/AU-4H.png

Cable - I had some nice moves with it, daily Evening Star candle, failed to break structure on the daily candle which might be a good signal that the triangle would be finally breached.
Please follow to the following link for more details: http://mike-forex.blogspot.com/2013/...0607-2013.html

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-6EEFIBVs7D...-+triangle.png


Green Pips to all and Have a great green week.
  • #2,577
  • Edited 3:32pm Jan 6, 2013 3:30pm | Edited 3:32pm
Too lazy at the moment to post a chart, but I am Bearish below 3125 and looking for overlap to occur in the swings (H1) off the 2999 low.

I would really like to see some signs in PA that the move up from 2999 is corrective (counter trend) and that will occur if we get overlapping PA by retracing below the first swing high near 3062....

There exits two perfectly valid counts down from 3299.... The bearish count has a higher probability given the broken base channel, trades below the former wave 4 of 1 lesser degree, and extended impulsive look and feel of the decline, so that is my trade..... I trade whatever the higher probability count is when two conflicting counts exit.

The bearish count I am trading will become invalid on a print above 3125/6 should no overlap of the first wave up off 2999 occur first. No overlap and a print above 3125, invalidates the bearish count (because wave 4 would overlap wave 1), and solidifies the bullish count.

and that makes sense if you look at the chart....

a print above 3125 with no overlap means we gave back all the post FOMC decline, pulled back into the base channel we broke out of, and we have broken above the former 4th wave of 1 degree support now resistance area.

Hence I have a stop out and reverse order entered above 3125...

Emotionally, I favor the bullish scenario and feel the FOMC decline was emotional trade that carried a corrective wave C too far exactly from its area of terminus, and the market now realizes its overshoot and will continue higher....

BUT, I have to trade the chart not my emotions and that calls for an active trade on the higher probability.....
  • #2,578
  • Jan 6, 2013 3:40pm Jan 6, 2013 3:40pm
Quoting Crassius
Too lazy at the moment to post a chart, but I am Bearish below 3125 and looking for overlap to occur in the swings (H1) off the 2999 low.

...

Emotionally, I favor the bullish scenario and feel the FOMC decline was emotional trade that carried a corrective wave C too far exactly from its area of terminus, and the market now realizes its overshoot and will continue higher....

BUT, I have to trade the chart not my emotions and that calls for an active trade on the higher probability.....
That's why we are here, emotions might make a lot of damage...
  • #2,579
  • Jan 6, 2013 6:08pm Jan 6, 2013 6:08pm
Quoting Crassius

I would really like to see some signs in PA that the move up from 2999 is corrective (counter trend) and that will occur if we get overlapping PA by retracing below the first swing high near 3062.....

Here is the overlapping price action I was hoping for.... Overlapping swings are indicative of corrective waves (counter-trend)....

It is not confirmed that we have eliminated the bullish count so far, because there is this pesky thing called an extension in Elliott Wave, but this bolsters the bearish count scenario.

It a little more weight on the scale in favor of bearish trend in place.... Only a break below 2999 would seal the bearish count in stone...

More PA needs to unfold to tell more... sometimes just one more bar can clarify the count be eliminating competing valid counts..
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  • #2,580
  • Jan 6, 2013 6:19pm Jan 6, 2013 6:19pm
Quoting Crassius
Here is the overlapping price action I was hoping for.... Overlapping swings are indicative of corrective waves (counter-trend)....

It is not confirmed that we have eliminated the bullish count so far, because there is this pesky thing called an extension in Elliott Wave, but this bolsters the bearish count scenario.

It a little more weight on the scale in favor of bearish trend in place.... Only a break below 2999 would seal the bearish count in stone...

More PA needs to unfold to tell more... sometimes just one more bar can clarify...
Really nice
MMMYYYKKK
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