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AUD/USD

  • #57,301
  • Jan 3, 2013 9:41pm Jan 3, 2013 9:41pm
You are correct, I won't add a buy/sell position just because H1 says over bought or over sold. I will actually wait until first position(s) are at least 100 pips in profit UNLESS I am at the top / bottom of what I think to be a long term trend. If at the "top / bottom" of what I believe to be the start of a uptend / downtrend then I will open a few positions right from the get go.

Like right now I am HEAVILY short on NZD/USD and AUD/USD. So my larger positions are already in place, when I scale in I will make sure that current trades are at least 100 pips in profit before adding any more. On top of that, the positions that I scale in will usually be a little smaller.

I'll also close positions along the way usually at 280 - 320 pips and look to re enter, this assures me some real profit.

Nothing is set in stone or "black and white" when it comes to trading, so we always need to be on our toes ready for anything.
  • #57,302
  • Jan 3, 2013 9:58pm Jan 3, 2013 9:58pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
You are correct, I won't add a buy/sell position just because H1 says over bought or over sold. I will actually wait until first position(s) are at least 100 pips in profit UNLESS I am at the top / bottom of what I think to be a long term trend. If at the "top / bottom" of what I believe to be the start of a uptend / downtrend then I will open a few positions right from the get go.

Like right now I am HEAVILY short on NZD/USD and AUD/USD. So my larger positions are already in place, when I scale in I will make sure that current trades are...
I really like the way you trade. As per our conversation yesterday, i entered heavy short but got stopped out when i was sleeping. Stop loss set at previous high. And during the day, i didnt have the balls to chase the trend. So i missed tons opportunities.

Considering NFP is on the road here, are you thinking about close out some of your positions just in case bad data comes out tomorrow morning.
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Whatever is happening right now has happened before and will happen again.
  • #57,303
  • Jan 3, 2013 10:00pm Jan 3, 2013 10:00pm
And im still debating myself if i should re-enter the short.
Whatever is happening right now has happened before and will happen again.
  • #57,304
  • Jan 3, 2013 10:45pm Jan 3, 2013 10:45pm
Quoting mnmnmmnnmnmn
I really like the way you trade. As per our conversation yesterday, i entered heavy short but got stopped out when i was sleeping. Stop loss set at previous high. And during the day, i didnt have the balls to chase the trend. So i missed tons opportunities.

Considering NFP is on the road here, are you thinking about close out some of your positions just in case bad data comes out tomorrow morning.
Thank you mnmnmnmnmnmn.

No I won't be closing any positions. These positions will remain opened for the next couple of weeks at least, UNLESS we close above 1.06 on a weekly close. This would invalidate my mid-term analysis for AUD/USD.

I'm going to post Monthly, Weekly, and Daily charts with major support / resistance as well as trend lines just to give you an idea as to why I am short and where I believe we are headed.

Monthly - Lower Highs from a monthly perspective for over 2 years

Weekly - Trend Line in effect since 7/31/2011 still being respected. Remember, the longer a TL holds the stronger it gets. Also, it has more prededence as it is on a larger time frame. Weekly BEEB (bearish engulfing bar) candle on 12/19.

Daily - Daily TL Broken & Confirmed on 12/21


**I hope the charts are easy to read and understand. Remember, this is my analysis and I could be wrong, it wouldn't be the first time. But as long as price doesn't close above 1.06 on a weekly basis then I am safe. If it closes above 1.06 then I will cut my losses and re-assess.
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  • #57,305
  • Jan 3, 2013 11:05pm Jan 3, 2013 11:05pm
Thanks again Mr. 100 for your effort for making this clear. This is actually the first time I see someone putting the long term strategy together and actually put it into practice.

I hate the fact that my eyeballs are always on the chart. Now it's time to set up some long term goal like you do. It takes a LOT on my patience. Not everyone can do it, holding a position for weeks.

I have to be honest to you and to myself, i could have been five times richer if i could hold up my position for one extra day ...
Whatever is happening right now has happened before and will happen again.
  • #57,306
  • Jan 3, 2013 11:18pm Jan 3, 2013 11:18pm
Quoting mnmnmmnnmnmn
Thanks again Mr. 100 for your effort for making this clear. This is actually the first time I see someone putting the long term strategy together and actually put it into practice.

I hate the fact that my eyeballs are always on the chart. Now it's time to set up some long term goal like you do. It takes a LOT on my patience. Not everyone can do it, holding a position for weeks.

I have to be honest to you and to myself, i could have been five times richer if i could hold up my position for one extra day ...
You're welcome! To be honest, I am still learning patience myself, it's not easy...

*I still wouldn't consider myself a "position trader" by any means, I am more of a Swing Trader. The biggest problem I had (and still do sometimes) is over leveraging my account. I need to keep my finger off the trigger, this is what will hurt any trader regardless of the time frame they are trading.

Best of luck to you this year MnM
  • #57,307
  • Jan 3, 2013 11:23pm Jan 3, 2013 11:23pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
You're welcome! To be honest, I am still learning patience myself, it's not easy...

*I still wouldn't consider myself a "position trader" by any means, I am more of a Swing Trader. The biggest problem I had (and still do sometimes) is over leveraging my account. I need to keep my finger off the trigger, this is what will hurt any trader regardless of the time frame they are trading.

Best of luck to you this year MnM
After reading up your thread, and the first thing pops up in my mind is that i need to start with a very small portion of my portfolio just to leave enough room for error...

I'm head off bed, and will get up early for NFP. I hate being in North America, crappy trading time period !!

Hope Aussie is pulling up when im sleeping tonight so i will have a better spot to set up my first long term trade
Whatever is happening right now has happened before and will happen again.
  • #57,308
  • Jan 3, 2013 11:41pm Jan 3, 2013 11:41pm
Quoting mnmnmmnnmnmn
After reading up your thread, and the first thing pops up in my mind is that i need to start with a very small portion of my portfolio just to leave enough room for error...

I'm head off bed, and will get up early for NFP. I hate being in North America, crappy trading time period !!

Hope Aussie is pulling up when im sleeping tonight so i will have a better spot to set up my first long term trade


Let me know if you have any questions and I'll do my best to help.
  • #57,309
  • Jan 3, 2013 11:47pm Jan 3, 2013 11:47pm
100,

Just one last question before i go to sleep. A little off topic here. I have been trading gold most of the time and doing very well until lately, everything is so messed up with this fiscal cliff thing.

In your opinion, why do you prefer pairs than gold?
Thanks
Whatever is happening right now has happened before and will happen again.
  • #57,310
  • Jan 4, 2013 12:17am Jan 4, 2013 12:17am
Quoting mnmnmmnnmnmn
100,

Just one last question before i go to sleep. A little off topic here. I have been trading gold most of the time and doing very well until lately, everything is so messed up with this fiscal cliff thing.

In your opinion, why do you prefer pairs than gold?
Thanks
I use to trade Gold, Oil, and DOW when I first started trading but I prefer currency pairs now.

One major reason is due to the fact that I use a US broker and we can't trade spot gold, oil, or the DOW (due to the DODD Frank Act) and I don't have any experience in trading futures.

However, even if I could trade gold 2012 was a horrible year when it comes to trading gold off of the daily charts. 2011 was much easier in my opinion. Not saying trading gold is hard or a bad thing, I just personally don't trade it anymore.

One other thing that currency pairs have that gold and commodities don't is the ability to leverage!
  • #57,311
  • Jan 4, 2013 2:01am Jan 4, 2013 2:01am
This feels like it's going to be a tough NFP to trade, after the Fed's hawkish comments. A strong number would likely stoke a pro-USD sentiment by giving the Fed more fuel to cut QE short eventually., and I think today's Asian market moves reflect an expectation for a good NFP number. What do you guys think?
  • #57,312
  • Jan 4, 2013 2:10am Jan 4, 2013 2:10am
Quoting Arkv
This feels like it's going to be a tough NFP to trade, after the Fed's hawkish comments. A strong number would likely stoke a pro-USD sentiment by giving the Fed more fuel to cut QE short eventually., and I think today's Asian market moves reflect an expectation for a good NFP number. What do you guys think?
I'm bearish regardless of the news driven knee jerk reaction...

I'm definitely USD Bullish for the foreseeable future
  • #57,313
  • Jan 4, 2013 3:21am Jan 4, 2013 3:21am
Quoting mnmnmmnnmnmn
Good job guys, i wish i was able to catch the last ride as well
mmmm there will be more rides. misssing a ride is not imp but to avoid getting on wrong ride is more imo
  • #57,314
  • Jan 4, 2013 3:24am Jan 4, 2013 3:24am
Quoting Niranj
As per my analysis price must go down by another 20 pips at least t0 1.0440-45 region

  • #57,315
  • Jan 4, 2013 6:59am Jan 4, 2013 6:59am
Quoting C-12
Caught a nice short earlier. Just stuck a hedge lock on.. Below this stop loss is a 60 pip freefall
Now long.
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  • #57,316
  • Edited 8:15am Jan 4, 2013 7:49am | Edited 8:15am
NFP just came out, i would believe that the original trend continues. Aussie heading down ... soon i guess.
Whatever is happening right now has happened before and will happen again.
  • #57,317
  • Jan 4, 2013 8:24am Jan 4, 2013 8:24am
Quoting mnmnmmnnmnmn
NFP just came out, i would believe that the original trend continues. Aussie heading down ... soon i guess.
mmmm dont trade much of this pair. but as per my analysis if it does not go over 1.0460 then it will retrace from that point. Being Friday anything can happen but if it wasnt Friday then i would have entered a short scalp and my entry would have been 1.0460 with SL 20 pips
  • #57,318
  • Jan 4, 2013 8:30am Jan 4, 2013 8:30am
Quoting mnmnmmnnmnmn
NFP just came out, i would believe that the original trend continues. Aussie heading down ... soon i guess.
Just closed out a few NZD/USD and AUD/USD shorts for a little over $2k. Also opened up another short @ 1.0446
  • #57,319
  • Jan 4, 2013 8:40am Jan 4, 2013 8:40am
Quoting 100PipsADay
Just closed out a few NZD/USD and AUD/USD shorts for a little over $2k. Also opened up another short @ 1.0446
  • #57,320
  • Jan 4, 2013 9:01am Jan 4, 2013 9:01am
Quoting Niranj
mmmm dont trade much of this pair. but as per my analysis if it does not go over 1.0460 then it will retrace from that point. Being Friday anything can happen but if it wasnt Friday then i would have entered a short scalp and my entry would have been 1.0460 with SL 20 pips
entered short at 1.0460 with SL 20 Pips
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