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Fail Better

  • #4,961
  • Jan 3, 2013 1:26pm Jan 3, 2013 1:26pm
Quoting kerinsp
Anyone for Silver?
You re using the fib the wrong way.
I don't need easy. I just need possible.
  • #4,962
  • Jan 3, 2013 1:53pm Jan 3, 2013 1:53pm
Quoting whassel
sfp w/ gap. off previous support.

edit: not messing around with this one. no divergence. brn 1.0500 below. stop lowered. moving to BE at 1.0512.
edit: out at resistance.
damn.
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  • #4,963
  • Jan 3, 2013 4:46pm Jan 3, 2013 4:46pm
http://content.screencast.com/users/...3-22.41.30.png
  • #4,964
  • Jan 3, 2013 4:57pm Jan 3, 2013 4:57pm
Quoting DaGrizlyBull
You re using the fib the wrong way.
True, still 50% is the same both directions
  • #4,965
  • Jan 3, 2013 5:42pm Jan 3, 2013 5:42pm
he's still going the wrong way down a one way street loaded with semi trucks.


@sam oanda (who i think you use? not sure) only has a 10pip gap or so. I went through the same thing a few posts back, A/U burned me doing it (demo)
guess gap plays can be really dependent on your brokers feed.
  • #4,966
  • Jan 3, 2013 5:54pm Jan 3, 2013 5:54pm
Well i see a 2 touch level (untested) in confluence with the 50 fib with a possible rounded return but thanks for your comments. D1 swings are making lower highs and lower lows too.
  • #4,967
  • Jan 3, 2013 6:16pm Jan 3, 2013 6:16pm
Quoting Mezzy


@sam oanda (who i think you use? not sure) only has a 10pip gap or so. I went through the same thing a few posts back, A/U burned me doing it (demo)
guess gap plays can be really dependent on your brokers feed.
Ya, Oanda. But I double check the gaps against multiple brokers @ http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/live-charts/ before I enter. You usually will see different gaps but as long as they all show generally the same thing, you're good.
  • #4,968
  • Edited 9:32pm Jan 3, 2013 9:14pm | Edited 9:32pm
The A/U RR i posted earlier is working out brilliantly, about to hit the 50 fib retracement where I think it will do another RR in the opposite direction.

Edit: oops my fib was in an old spot, redrew, its already plunged passed the 50, thinking of taking what I got now. My TP is right on a support area, not sure if it will actually reach.

Image uploaded, sorry about the confusing double order. My first order (at the bottom was an attempt at gap trading which went sour obviously, I left it open because I had a EU position covering the trade with profit.) The 2nd order at the top is my RR play, entry was on the down of the W shape. Tempted to take profits now and close both orders, and put my position as long..
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  • #4,969
  • Jan 4, 2013 12:29am Jan 4, 2013 12:29am
Quoting sam0182
Am I the only one not seeing a gap?
Quoting sam0182
Ya, Oanda. But I double check the gaps against multiple brokers @ http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/live-charts/ before I enter. You usually will see different gaps but as long as they all show generally the same thing, you're good.
My fault guys, I'm not quite sure how I missed these. Wasn't able to pull up my charting earlier...and it's funny as my quoted fxstreet charting clearly shows the gap.

Nicely played, way to kick off the New Year.
  • #4,970
  • Jan 4, 2013 7:51am Jan 4, 2013 7:51am
Patiance Pays

hope someone else also took this.

Quoting trader8080
http://content.screencast.com/users/...3-22.41.30.png
  • #4,971
  • Jan 4, 2013 8:48am Jan 4, 2013 8:48am
Quoting trader8080
Patiance Pays

hope someone else also took this.
Not sure what kind of management did you use to extract a profit from this one. It was a scary drawdown before the drop.
  • #4,972
  • Jan 4, 2013 10:43am Jan 4, 2013 10:43am
Lol, how do you know your still far from being a good trader? Being 40 pips plus in USD/CAD before this motherf*** of a newsflash comes in, getting stopped out with minus 20 pips, not even thinking about trailing your SL or AT LEAST moving it to breakeven .

well, once in a lifetime...
http://www.abload.de/img/news0wpuu.jpg
  • #4,973
  • Jan 4, 2013 10:58am Jan 4, 2013 10:58am
Quoting daveone
Lol, how do you know your still far from being a good trader? Being 60 pips plus in USD/CAD before this motherf*** of a newsflash, getting stopped out with minus 20 pips, not even thinking about trailing your SL or AT LEAST moving it to breakeven .

well, once in a lifetime...
http://www.abload.de/img/news0wpuu.jpg
Just means your human. Being a good trader is in my opinion about expecting to lose and managing the loss with the least impact possible on your trading. Because if you master that, you will make money. It's only a matter of time before you get it right, and you get it right big, to make up for the small losses, because you managed properly. Everyone misses a news flash, or reads into something wrong or puts their stop too tight, maybe there wasn't a good spot for you to move your stop to that made sense for the market, and your initial target/sl was the best for you at the time. Just because you went into profit and news canceled it out doesn't make you a bad trader. It could have gone the other way where you moved your sl up to be and it got hit, then took off 100pips the way you wanted. You'd be kicking yourself just as hard. Don't play what if's just trade how you trade and if it works out great, if it doesn't then figure out if it was your mistake or if it just didn't work and move on.

dont be hard on yourself, and remember tom teaches that your initial gut is more often than not right, and when you're emotionally invested into the trade don't mess with it.

I'm rambling its early morning, its snowing I need coffee and I'm an amature so take what I say with a grain of salt.
  • #4,974
  • Jan 4, 2013 12:25pm Jan 4, 2013 12:25pm
Quoting Rust
Not sure what kind of management did you use to extract a profit from this one. It was a scary drawdown before the drop.
if 14 pip draw down scares you my friend you are in the wrong game.

with regards to the "management" its a fine balance between management and where your stop should be. just because your "management" says that its too much risk does not mean that you can cut the trade there and take a loss. I stayed in this trade by 3 pips. There is always a SQUEEZE before the markets drops in the other direction I have seen it countless times. just the way Pros make sure they shake the weak hands.

off course holding a trade going into NFP isn't for everyone.
  • #4,975
  • Jan 5, 2013 5:56am Jan 5, 2013 5:56am
Hi all,
Some ideas I have. Let me know if they are rubbish!
Paul
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  • #4,976
  • Jan 5, 2013 9:37am Jan 5, 2013 9:37am
Quoting trader8080
if 14 pip draw down scares you my friend you are in the wrong game.

with regards to the "management" its a fine balance between management and where your stop should be. just because your "management" says that its too much risk does not mean that you can cut the trade there and take a loss. I stayed in this trade by 3 pips. There is always a SQUEEZE before the markets drops in the other direction I have seen it countless times. just the way Pros make sure they shake the weak hands.

off course holding a trade going into NFP isn't for everyone....
Hey 80,

Pips/ticks doesn't mean much to me and they shouldn't to you if you doing proper position sizing. I just didn't see the reasoning behind hiding your stop that far (except hope, random management or a fat record). Stops are usually put behind something that could turn price. At least by my experience
  • #4,977
  • Jan 5, 2013 10:02am Jan 5, 2013 10:02am
Quoting kerinsp
Hi all,
Some ideas I have. Let me know if they are rubbish!
Paul
Hey Kerin, nice charts.

The way i see the target in Silver (and Gold, similar setups) is this:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Also, i noticed Tom mentioning the "Withces Hat" stuff. What is it? Some kind of a steep head and shoulders?

Thx and GL!
I don't need easy. I just need possible.
  • #4,978
  • Jan 5, 2013 3:27pm Jan 5, 2013 3:27pm
Quoting Rust
Hey 80,

Pips/ticks doesn't mean much to me and they shouldn't to you if you doing proper position sizing. I just didn't see the reasoning behind hiding your stop that far (except hope, random management or a fat record). Stops are usually put behind something that could turn price. At least by my experience
Look at the Daily ATR =45 pips
Look at the Area of Turn 48 Pips

I rest my case

http://content.screencast.com/users/...3-21.21.04.png
  • #4,979
  • Jan 6, 2013 8:58am Jan 6, 2013 8:58am
CADJPY SPF to keep an eye on at the open.
Lots of room to fall.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,980
  • Edited 3:57am Jan 9, 2013 1:17am | Edited 3:57am
Mornin guys,
how do you like the current audusd setup ?

http://www.abload.de/img/udusd77utz.gif


/e there goes the possible RTT setup for the next few hours.
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