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AUD/USD

  • #57,261
  • Dec 27, 2012 12:20pm Dec 27, 2012 12:20pm
Quoting fxtyrant
majority of the links you given me didnt work... i marked them in bold
Damn it...

Alright, head over to this link: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...18#post5984418

Should have most of the articles copy/pasted with charts... You're going to have to scroll through the links and find the articles that pertain to Japan.
  • #57,262
  • Dec 28, 2012 6:53am Dec 28, 2012 6:53am
Quoting Zircon
Maybe gonna see reaction with yen crosses tomorrow??
just back from first part of holidays and not quite up to date.

Noticed weekend gap in usjpy, jumping over round number, suggesting it is really charged ! Samurai style operation there - shock and awe !!!

interesting read if have not seen it yet re aud.

http://www.afr.com/p/national/econom...h1ucNaYmJN8RSP

i think article goes along lines that AUD will not be star this year, in either direction. usjy behaves nicely, other jpy pairs still missing fire. Nikkei might be leader in stock bull market.
  • #57,263
  • Dec 28, 2012 7:01pm Dec 28, 2012 7:01pm
Interesting to see two traders I respect, Sidhujag & 100PipsADay, with very different views in the last week. Sidhujag took a long with very good risk reward profile at 1.0347, hoping for around 1.08. 100PipsADay has targets around 98c. I'm trying to understand why they see these targets when price has failed to continue up from the 1.058 to 1.063 range the last 3 times and failed to continue down from 1.015 to 1.02 the last 2 times?

Personally I'm currently short and would love for it to continue down lower but given that I failed to capitalise on the last 2 down moves I will this time be making sure I do if it hits 1.02 by narrowing my net difference in position size by closing some shorts and opening some longs. If it continues down I'll still get some benefit, just not as much. The resilience of the AUD and US printing say to me that we haven't seen the last of 1.05.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #57,264
  • Dec 29, 2012 11:17pm Dec 29, 2012 11:17pm
I feel like there's going to be a gap, but I'm not sure why...

Oh, and on the daily, looks like there will be a cross over around 1.0435~. This level will be useful when price gets to it, suffice to say.

Daily
4H
1H
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Play the players, not the cards.
  • #57,265
  • Dec 30, 2012 6:47am Dec 30, 2012 6:47am
Quoting gmohata
AUD at a critical support level - if it can break below 9470 - we should go to atleast 9400/9380.

Fundamentals not supporting the Aussie in the short term and a rate hike probability is diminishing.

Aussie is a high-yeild currency and could lose investor appeal very very quickly.

I am taking a short at 9505 with a SL at 9650 and TP (1st lot) at 9400

This is definitely a very good buy level. Can't do anything right now PA is not moving. Probably will have to wait 1 year from now to open long position.
  • #57,266
  • Dec 31, 2012 1:12am Dec 31, 2012 1:12am
AUD/USD Real-Time Technical Analysis

1st Chart - Hourly
2nd Chart - Daily
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #57,267
  • Dec 31, 2012 5:30am Dec 31, 2012 5:30am
Next stop 1.015

20 EMA is just about to cross over 50 EMA on the Daily chart. This gives even more confirmation of downward continuation.

1st Target: 1.015
2nd Target: .965

**I will be taking profit and scaling in more positions along the way.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #57,268
  • Jan 2, 2013 10:30am Jan 2, 2013 10:30am
Quoting GnarlyPips
Price is near the bottom-upward TL on the 4H. I can see price moving back up to 1.0515. Will be looking to short at that level, however, will also be cautious. Could turn out to be just a scalp.

Missed my chance. Gotta get my sleep back on track.
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #57,269
  • Jan 2, 2013 3:13pm Jan 2, 2013 3:13pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Next stop 1.015

20 EMA is just about to cross over 50 EMA on the Daily chart. This gives even more confirmation of downward continuation.

1st Target: 1.015
2nd Target: .965

**I will be taking profit and scaling in more positions along the way.
Did you mean 1.105 ?

It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #57,270
  • Jan 2, 2013 3:24pm Jan 2, 2013 3:24pm
Quoting Erebus
Did you mean 1.105 ?


Nope...

1.015
  • #57,271
  • Jan 2, 2013 3:48pm Jan 2, 2013 3:48pm
Aud is waste of time. Won't go up due to cb language, won't go down as stocks will rally. This can last for long time. I am moving attention to stock indexes and jpy.
  • #57,272
  • Edited 7:14pm Jan 2, 2013 4:18pm | Edited 7:14pm
Quoting macroman
Aud is waste of time. Won't go up due to cb language, won't go down as stocks will rally. This can last for long time. I am moving attention to stock indexes and jpy.
Actually look at countries such as Japan. Their currency is a direct inverse correlation of their stock market, which is why recently as the JPY has weakened their stocks have had their best performance in (i believe) 20 years or so!

If you are thinking that Australia's stock market will rally then I wouldn't be surprised to see the AUD weaken significantly.

Anyways, just put in another HEAVY short at 1.05

1st Target: 1.015
  • #57,273
  • Jan 2, 2013 7:02pm Jan 2, 2013 7:02pm
Just chking over my positions over the holidays. My long aud from 1.05 and 1.047 got stopped for 70 and 40 pips. Eur/gbp short stopped 30 pips. USDCAD long tp @ .995 for 110 pips. And just closed the rest of my eurjpy position @ 115 for a massive 830 pips.
  • #57,274
  • Jan 2, 2013 7:25pm Jan 2, 2013 7:25pm
Quoting Iro
Just chking over my positions over the holidays. My long aud from 1.05 and 1.047 got stopped for 70 and 40 pips. Eur/gbp short stopped 30 pips. USDCAD long tp @ .995 for 110 pips. And just closed the rest of my eurjpy position @ 115 for a massive 830 pips.
wow gjob dude! 830 pips... nice hopefully it was a good payday!
  • #57,275
  • Jan 2, 2013 7:26pm Jan 2, 2013 7:26pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Actually look at countries such as Japan. Their currency is a direct inverse correlation of their stock market, which is why recently as the JPY has weakened their stocks have had their best performance in (i believe) 20 years or so!

If you are thinking that Australia's stock market will rally then I wouldn't be surprised to see the AUD weaken significantly.

Anyways, just put in another HEAVY short at 1.05

1st Target: 1.015
Yeah, heavy short at 1.4867 here. At least it should retrace back down to 1.0450. Good luck to both of us.
Whatever is happening right now has happened before and will happen again.
  • #57,276
  • Jan 2, 2013 7:29pm Jan 2, 2013 7:29pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
...

Anyways, just put in another HEAVY short at 1.05

1st Target: 1.015
Oh wawoo, 1.015, you're looking at previous low in this ranging rectangle box bottom. Then you'll probly gonna be holding the short for a long time... ... unless on Friday NFP data pulling it down hopefully.
Whatever is happening right now has happened before and will happen again.
  • #57,277
  • Jan 2, 2013 7:30pm Jan 2, 2013 7:30pm
Quoting fxtyrant
here might be where you could help me understand a bit...
i dont understand why the Yen needs easing...
given the fact that japan's economy has been in stagnation since 1970s....
and the fact that manufacturing in japan has moved away to the US so really theres no reason for a weaker yen... weaker yen means stronger Export... but lately i dont see what yen needs to export...

You can argue abe wants inflation to kick start the economic growth once again. but given the fact that major corporations are moving away to the US and UK for their...
Have you been to Japan? The cost of the high yen actually put ppl on the streets there. A coffee there will cost you an arm and a leg! They do still have a strong manufacturing base of electronics and vehicles so that is what drives their economy... they import oil and commodities so the weak yen helps there im sure they didn't have a problem when they signed the agreement along with the other BRIC's to let US devalue their $ vs the yen long term... now we see why they did it, and I think tides will change pretty soon. The US will have to come up with another game breaker to keep the jig going or else all confidence is lost in the USD... The fact that USD did not rise with equities this year tells me that there is an internal power struggle going on... 2013 is pretty important on most of the long term charts...
  • #57,278
  • Jan 2, 2013 7:42pm Jan 2, 2013 7:42pm
Quoting mnmnmmnnmnmn
Oh wawoo, 1.015, you're looking at previous low in this ranging rectangle box bottom. Then you'll probly gonna be holding the short for a long time... ... unless on Friday NFP data pulling it down hopefully.
Yea, this is not a short term trade. Most of my positions are held for a few weeks / months at a time.

Also put in some fresh EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD LONG positions earlier today. E/A first target is 1.295
  • #57,279
  • Jan 2, 2013 7:47pm Jan 2, 2013 7:47pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Yea, this is not a short term trade. Most of my positions are held for a few weeks / months at a time.

Also put in some fresh EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD LONG positions earlier today. E/A first target is 1.295
Looks like i have a long way to go training my patience.

But looking at E/A daily chart doesnt look very promising tho...
Whatever is happening right now has happened before and will happen again.
  • #57,280
  • Jan 2, 2013 7:49pm Jan 2, 2013 7:49pm
Well, I guess 1.295 is probly the top boundary of the downward channel. We ll see.

I am kind of worry about the non farm payroll is gonna bring some impact on aud. I may just cash out before friday if my position end up in profit.
Whatever is happening right now has happened before and will happen again.
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