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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #25,201
  • Dec 31, 2012 4:40am Dec 31, 2012 4:40am
Hi,

We are ranged bound now with the EURUSD. I listened again to the range bound trading mp3 of Phil. And tried to set this lessons in the EURUSD expectation. Look also at the attachment.

The rule said: if we go under the 21, it tends to go back to the 21 and then come down to the 89. well coming back to the 89 can be slow or faster depending on the market.

Well That is exactly what we see in the EURUSD right know.... My expectation is that we slowly go back to the 89 it also can mean that we go back to the 89 at the same priclevel.... that's just a matter of time then Well we see whats happening.

Are the followers agree with me...according the rules of this system?!

btw... I start my trading again in the jan 2013...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.jpg Size: 78 KB
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #25,202
  • Dec 31, 2012 9:09pm Dec 31, 2012 9:09pm
Hi,
I'm new to Forex and have been looking around for different strategies, EAs and signal services. So far I've been studying Phillip's strategy for the last couple of weeks and it's making good sense to me. I'll be starting my 90 day journey with demo account very soon, but before I start I wanted to ask for a clarification. Having seen traders speaking and showing how to trade during downtrend, I'm not quite sure I've understood the fundamentals behind it.
Let's say the base currency is USD and we buy/sell EUR with it. It makes sense to buy low and sell high during uptrend to make a profit in USDs, however when I've been presented with the idea of trading during downtrend I got stumbled. It would've made sense to buy and sell USD for a profit in EURs, however as far as I know trading accounts are not dual(or are they?). Is that the general idea behind this, meaning that I would have another account in EUR, or is it something else?

Many thanks,

Daniel
Those that can't, teach, and those that can, do.
Star Ribbean Return This Year: 0.1%
  • #25,203
  • Dec 31, 2012 11:15pm Dec 31, 2012 11:15pm
Quoting Acolyte
Hi,
I'm new to Forex and have been looking around for different strategies, EAs and signal services. So far I've been studying Phillip's strategy for the last couple of weeks and it's making good sense to me. I'll be starting my 90 day journey with demo account very soon, but before I start I wanted to ask for a clarification. Having seen traders speaking and showing how to trade during downtrend, I'm not quite sure I've understood the fundamentals behind it.
Let's say the base currency is USD and we buy/sell EUR with it. It makes sense to buy...
In the forex market you are trading one currency against another. In the Euro versus the Dollar. The Euro is the base currency and the Usd is the secondary currency. When you buy the Eur you are long the Eur and short the Usd. When you sell the Eur you are short the Eur and long the Usd. When the chart is going up the Euro is rising in price. When the chart is going down the Usd is rising in price against the Eur.
  • #25,204
  • Jan 1, 2013 12:13am Jan 1, 2013 12:13am
Thanks pipraven, but I still don't understand how you extract the profit during downtrend. Let's say I put 1000 USD into the account and have been trading during an uptrend and after a week can withdraw 100 dollars which were a result of buying EUR low and selling it high. Can you give me a similar example, i.e. how to extract profit during the downtrend? As far as I know you cannot withdraw EUR from an USD-based account, because, essentially, you're not actually buying it but rather controlling using the leverage.
Those that can't, teach, and those that can, do.
Star Ribbean Return This Year: 0.1%
  • #25,205
  • Jan 1, 2013 5:30am Jan 1, 2013 5:30am
To extract the profit during the downtrend is simple. First open SELL EUR/USD, then after the price goes down you close the position with BUY EUR/USD. Thus, we sell high(at first) and buy low. This is possible because we are trading the derivative form of currency trading with no physical movement. We are gaining profit or suffer loss from the difference between our open/close position.
Own your own mind.
  • #25,206
  • Jan 1, 2013 6:09am Jan 1, 2013 6:09am
I knew it was something simple but couldn't put my finger on it, thanks alot Arrow!
Those that can't, teach, and those that can, do.
Star Ribbean Return This Year: 0.1%
  • #25,207
  • Jan 1, 2013 4:23pm Jan 1, 2013 4:23pm
whish you all succes in the comming year!

welcome Acolyte...Bahamas! Hummm! beautiful place.
Yvon
  • #25,208
  • Jan 1, 2013 4:29pm Jan 1, 2013 4:29pm
eurusd long.

that's maybe the consolidation I was talking about. the pair went down to 89sma ,now moving back up, -making a RB at the same time.
Yvon
  • #25,209
  • Jan 1, 2013 4:47pm Jan 1, 2013 4:47pm
to HappyMe:

@Trademin...153pips...not bad, that's the total range if I saw it correctly

- Indeed it's about the total range, which I traded successfully but ON the last run up I just tripple position so making 153 pips.- I whish , all the time making a whole range without closing the trade, but I get cautious when price is well above the 8ema. so later I get back in at 21ema( if it goes there) or the89sma. - I would make more pips by staying in the trade, but I dont mind not being in a good trade than being in a bad trade!( since I expect the price to go down for a while).
Yvon
  • #25,210
  • Jan 1, 2013 5:17pm Jan 1, 2013 5:17pm
Quoting trademin
eurusd long.

that's maybe the consolidation I was talking about. the pair went down to 89sma ,now moving back up, -making a RB at the same time.
Long eurusd?! That's against the rule I thought or?! It looks the price tends to go back to the 89MA if we following the system rule. There is also a small downchannel in my opinion. Look also at my last post from last year.

And ofcourse...for everyone...al the best for 2013!!

edit: I'm talking about the 4H graph. besides that the price wasn't reaching the 89 in the 4H. It needs to go about 40 pips or so...
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #25,211
  • Jan 1, 2013 6:06pm Jan 1, 2013 6:06pm
HappyMe,

I see a consolidation between 1.3152 and 1.3280, price oscillates both sides of 8ema and 21ema. while price is both side of Mas, for me , I call it also Indecision. the trend down (within this indecision) is reaching 89sma (or close to it). if it does reach 89sma, I'll still be a buyer since 89sma is trending up.- and I consider also a bottom of consolidation there too.
there is also a Head and Shoulders backing this consolidation and also a double bottoms in the Macd.- but the last word belongs to the market itself, evaluation of people.-
Yvon
  • #25,212
  • Jan 1, 2013 6:14pm Jan 1, 2013 6:14pm
Quoting trademin
HappyMe,

I see a consolidation between 1.3152 and 1.3280, price oscillates both sides of 8ema and 21ema. while price is both side of Mas, for me , I call it also Indecision. the trend down (within this indecision) is reaching 89sma (or close to it). if it does reach 89sma, I'll still be a buyer since 89sma is trending up.- and I consider also a bottom of consolidation there too.
there is also a Head and Shoulders backing this consolidation and also a double bottoms in the Macd.- but the last word belongs to the market itself, evaluation of people.-...
agreed...your more in the future then I am...
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #25,213
  • Jan 1, 2013 6:30pm Jan 1, 2013 6:30pm
you are doing very well , I like the way you see markets ---I guess I could be wrong, and it would'nt be the first time!

for sure I should not be trading today-January first ! ---there is more volatility in "Partys" going on now around the globe than in the market right now!
Yvon
  • #25,214
  • Jan 1, 2013 7:54pm Jan 1, 2013 7:54pm
I just put trailing Stop loss on all positions.
Yvon
  • #25,215
  • Jan 1, 2013 8:13pm Jan 1, 2013 8:13pm
EURUSD LONG:
I know the day is still young BUT I can see already a possible TC on the dayly chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Yvon
  • #25,216
  • Jan 1, 2013 8:19pm Jan 1, 2013 8:19pm
eurusd closed positions
4 positions for a gain of 253 pips
Yvon
  • #25,217
  • Jan 1, 2013 8:20pm Jan 1, 2013 8:20pm
here is the chart on eurusd.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Yvon
  • #25,218
  • Jan 2, 2013 2:17pm Jan 2, 2013 2:17pm
Quoting HappyMe
Hi,

We are ranged bound now with the EURUSD. I listened again to the range bound trading mp3 of Phil. And tried to set this lessons in the EURUSD expectation. Look also at the attachment.

The rule said: if we go under the 21, it tends to go back to the 21 and then come down to the 89. well coming back to the 89 can be slow or faster depending on the market.

Well That is exactly what we see in the EURUSD right know.... My expectation is that we slowly go back to the 89 it also can mean that we go back to the 89 at the same priclevel.... that's...
Well well, look there the price reached the ma89... the rule was correct !! actually I didn't expected it anymore after the long up candle this morning!!

I just entered the market... at the 1H graph:
price at 4H was "toutching" the MA89 and it looked it is bouncing now
price at 1H was bounching at the ma365....
MA89 at 4H is up
MACD at 1H was geving a roundbottom
so I went long at EURUSD now.....see also attachments

agreed....or...?! are there other views of the market?
Attached Images
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #25,219
  • Edited 4:35pm Jan 2, 2013 4:03pm | Edited 4:35pm
HappyMe,

there will be ,I guess, diferent views since different people trade the markets.-

whent price reaches the 89sma, then price should go to the 21ema...here price is at the bottom of consolidation-but no RB on the 4h chart.

my view: (our charts differs)

4h chart: the last 253 pips have been traded considering also the RB on Macd 4h, and the 89sma as being a supportive indication of an up move- there is none right now.- taking a long position now , for me, is considering only the bottom of a market consolidation which is also indecision of the market.
the pair is testing the 89sma for now.- below that I 'll be looking for a short position- I don't see a round bottom yet(RB) on the Macd-(which would be an incitative to go long)

1 h chart : I consider it only as a fine tuning entry while referring only to the 4h chart.

I still think that price should go up,(1.3450+) if a long position is engage it would be on a thigh SL just under the tail of the last red long completed candle.
Yvon
  • #25,220
  • Jan 2, 2013 4:41pm Jan 2, 2013 4:41pm
Trademin,

Thanks for your view.....

as I understand it right...you only trade at a MACD signal at the 4H-chart. After the signal is there you go to the 1H-chart and try to find the bottom of that moment... Well I take that in consideration

For now I saw the price was held in the neighborhood of the 89... I did considered as a bounce because the price went up for 30 pips or so... at the 1H chart the price was held by the 365.... and there was a MACD confirmation at the 1H. That was a confirmation for me that the price can go up ( in an early stadge)... the only concern I have is the small downward channel... the price can turn around there (price hold on that resistance line 5 times till now..... with this said.... I think you have a better view with waiting for the confirmation at the 4H chart....

Thanks again!!
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
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