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  • #2,541
  • Dec 21, 2012 2:31am Dec 21, 2012 2:31am
Hi all,

here is my current outlook on EU

trade well

The correction of the swing up 287x to 330x very nearly made it into the target bubble except 5 pips but it did make a LL than wA so could be done.

The target zone is shallow by normal standards but it is being influenced by the height of the pullback shown as wB and the top of the previous swing high 312x.

Overall I am still trading the weekly correction, but the risk here is of a deeper correction on the lower timeframe - looking to 312x to hold that back.

To the upside watch 25 45 54 75
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  • #2,542
  • Dec 21, 2012 1:37pm Dec 21, 2012 1:37pm
Quoting Crassius
AUDUSD at critical 1.0550 level....

exceeding 1.0624 breaks the count everyone has on AUDUSD......

There should be tons of supply at this level to prevent price from breaking higher..... if it manages to climb through all that supply and break 1.0624 the floodgates will be opened....

AUDUSD all the way down to the 100 DMA 1.0407
  • #2,543
  • Dec 28, 2012 2:25am Dec 28, 2012 2:25am
Quoting MaxDoom
here is my current outlook on EU

The correction of the swing up 287x to 330x very nearly made it into the target bubble except 5 pips but it did make a LL than wA so could be done.

The target zone is shallow by normal standards but it is being influenced by the height of the pullback shown as wB and the top of the previous swing high 312x.

Overall I am still trading the weekly correction, but the risk here is of a deeper correction on the lower timeframe - looking to 312x to hold that back.
back on the 21st December I mentioned that the drop from 3309 was most likely going to be a shallow one, check the quoted posted for the target chart, here is the current chart overlaid with that target (see chart H1) you can see that the move did end as expected.

Where next? as always this is more complicated on the lower TF. You can see from chart H1 that there is still a downside risk to make the correction from 3309 deeper but that subsides the closer to 3309 it gets and having reached expected target zone I am aiming higher on this TF.

Looking at the daily (see chart D1) you can that the next level correction is in play of swing down 397x to 204x with some target zones and on the weekly (chart W1) you can see the greater correction of 493x to 204x is also underway. In both these charts the price is testing the start of the target zones.

Until proven otherwise I am trading long opportunities looking for a good test into 34xx ideally 349x where i would expected a possible pullback on the daily TF
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  • #2,544
  • Edited 2:37am Dec 28, 2012 2:33am | Edited 2:37am
Quoting MaxDoom
....
Where next? as always this is more complicated on the lower TF. You can see from chart H1 that there is still a downside risk to make the correction from 3309 deeper......

Until proven otherwise I am trading long opportunities looking for a good test into 34xx ideally 349x where i would expected a possible pullback on the daily TF

I concur that downside risk remains as the price action up from 3159 has been overlapping and not terribly impulsive looking.... Its hard to read from 1.3159 and that is in keeping with the time of year and trading conditions.

I think we are heading toward 1.3800 - 3900 at the start of the new year from where we will turn lower (big picture, there will be pull backs on the way), but will remain out of the market till after the Holidays and full liquidity return, which should bring clearer price action.
  • #2,545
  • Dec 28, 2012 2:38am Dec 28, 2012 2:38am
Quoting Crassius
I concur that downside risk remains as the price action up from 3159 has been overlapping and not terribly impulsive looking.... Its hard to read from 1.3159 and that is in keeping with the time of year and trading conditions.

I think we are heading toward 1.3800 - 3900 at the start of the new year where we will turn lower, but will remain out of the market till after the Holidays and full liquidity return, which should bring clearer price action.

sensible plan
  • #2,546
  • Dec 31, 2012 8:47am Dec 31, 2012 8:47am
On H1 I can count a triangle from the 3308 top right now, which would be in a wave 4 of larger degree position.... ( all action from 1.3308 as wave 4 triangle )

A powerfull breakout may be about to happen with a thrusting move to start off wave 5 of that larger degree...

Trades 1.3225 at present with ABCDE of Triangle apparently already in...

I suggest waiting for the breakout to actually occur before entering against a stop of 1.3160ish because wave E of a triangle sometimes itself becomes a triangle, leading to more sideways action as the market trades itself into a narrower and narrower band....
  • #2,547
  • Dec 31, 2012 8:55am Dec 31, 2012 8:55am
Here's a chart of the triangle.... for above post....
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  • #2,548
  • Edited 9:07am Dec 31, 2012 9:07am | Edited 9:07am
Here's the pattern..... Is it complete?

Only a breakout confirms completion....
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  • #2,549
  • Dec 31, 2012 9:19am Dec 31, 2012 9:19am
If (d) breaks to the upside, and price trades back down, the most likely alternate is that I am calling (d) complete too early....

(d) is a bit ill formed, however it is also close to the guideline that (d) is usually .618 of (b).... but the possibility exits that we are still forming (d) with (e) yet to come...

In that case holding against the low of (c) (several pips below) should keep you in the trade anyway, and in the right direction.... you'll just have to be patient as (e) forms
  • #2,550
  • Jan 1, 2013 7:51pm Jan 1, 2013 7:51pm
The chart speaks for itself.
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  • #2,551
  • Jan 1, 2013 7:53pm Jan 1, 2013 7:53pm
If this is the thrust out of the triangle ( which I think it is)....

Thrust measured objective = 1.3327 as a minimum
  • #2,552
  • Jan 2, 2013 4:12am Jan 2, 2013 4:12am
Still very Bullish but....

The lack of a really thrusting move out of my previous count triangle from 3308 did not materialize and has had more than ample time to do so.

I am now favoring a double ZigZag count from the 3308 high... Two ABC's separated by an X wave

Which has been followed by the beginnings of a strong five wave move up with what appears to be an extending 3rd wave. Same direction, just different count.

I am looking to add as we put in wave 2 ( in red ) of the extending 3rd wave and have buy limits layered from 3250 down to 3220 ( the .618 retrace) should I get so lucky as to catch some fills.

That puts us in a wave 3 up that should target 3380 - 3400, before correcting. (also have an alt count shown that would put us in wave 5)

I will post my long term count a little later, but I expect to see 1.3800 - 900 in the coming weeks to couple of months, before we turn over for a fast powerful move down in EURUSD that will see 1.0900.
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  • #2,553
  • Jan 2, 2013 4:18am Jan 2, 2013 4:18am
CME futures Open at the top of the hour, and this will bring on full liquidity/market participation as US futures traders enter the market after the Holiday in full force...
  • #2,554
  • Jan 2, 2013 4:45am Jan 2, 2013 4:45am
Quoting Crassius
I am now favoring a double ZigZag count from the 3308 high... Two ABC's separated by an X wave

Same direction, just different count.

Here's the pattern out of Prechter's...
Attached Image
  • #2,555
  • Jan 2, 2013 6:31am Jan 2, 2013 6:31am
Quoting Crassius
Still very Bullish but....



I am looking to add as we put in wave 2 ( in red ) of the extending 3rd wave and have buy limits layered from 3250 down to 3220 ( the .618 retrace) should I get so lucky as to catch some fills.

I caught some fills down to 3235, and am now cancelling any unfilled buy limits... I increased my position size by 50% and ....raised my basis 11.5 pips, to 3223... building for a big run at 3380...

We trade 3275 in an impulsive fashion on a small degree (scale)... looks like the small degree correction off 3299 is complete... for now....
  • #2,556
  • Jan 2, 2013 6:36am Jan 2, 2013 6:36am
Quoting Crassius
We trade 3275 in an impulsive fashion on a small degree (scale)... looks like the small degree correction off 3299 is complete... for now....
.
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  • #2,557
  • Jan 2, 2013 7:01am Jan 2, 2013 7:01am
Should the recent lows of 3233 give way at this point, a test of 3180 and 3160 areas could follow...

Always pays to think of all the different ways it could unfold....

To me 3172 is a critical level to hold, so I don't welcome a test of 3160 at all.... and think it a low probability outcome.
  • #2,558
  • Jan 2, 2013 7:05am Jan 2, 2013 7:05am
Moving my stop to Break even 3223.... opportunity to reenter lower would present itself most likely if 3233 taken out.
  • #2,559
  • Jan 2, 2013 7:24am Jan 2, 2013 7:24am
I a new, do u have any tips?
eurdollar is trading 1.3262.
short or long posion?
  • #2,560
  • Jan 2, 2013 7:32am Jan 2, 2013 7:32am
Quoting Crassius
Moving my stop to Break even 3223.... opportunity to reenter lower would present itself most likely if 3233 taken out.

Scratch that... I may lighten up there, or not... depends on PA... My position size is still small.

Here is another scenario if 3233 gives way....

A flat correction may be unfolding.... Flats are counted as 3, 3, 5 waves in an ABC, where wave c is often 100% as long as wave a....

If that happens, wave c = 100% of wave a at 3213... just 10 pips below my breakeven....

Have to see how PA unfolds... but this is what its like to count Elliott in real time... its turning over in your mind and weighing the probabilities of multiple possible outcomes in your head BEFORE they unfold so you know where you are going as future bars draw themselves out...

This is just one possibility.... not my preferred one.... Not a high probability.... but it must be in the mix.... 3172 remains critical, but here's a possibility that keeps it intact, and keeps the longer term bullish scenario alive.... Hopefully it remains just a possibility...
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