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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #12,021
  • Nov 15, 2012 2:43am Nov 15, 2012 2:43am
I found an opportunity from AUDCAD. Do you think it going right?

Yesterday it formed a bearish engulfing candle, which is bearish. Prices has came down and retest the uptrend line. Now on H4, if we base on H4 which is now being oversold thus a kick up to retest yesterday high is also a possibility. There are 2 ways we can joined this pair. 1) leave our pending order where it is and look for prices to come back to retest or make a marginally high and create a negative Divergence on H4 then run all the way down to previous low.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 15 Nov bonus AUDCAD Daily.jpg Size: 124 KB
myfxpedia : Daily Signals and Strategies
  • #12,022
  • Nov 15, 2012 11:04am Nov 15, 2012 11:04am
Quoting Amelia
I found an opportunity from AUDCAD. Do you think it going right?

Yesterday it formed a bearish engulfing candle, which is bearish. Prices has came down and retest the uptrend line. Now on H4, if we base on H4 which is now being oversold thus a kick up to retest yesterday high is also a possibility. There are 2 ways we can joined this pair. 1) leave our pending order where it is and look for prices to come back to retest or make a marginally high and create a negative Divergence on H4 then run all the way down to previous low.
Monthly and weekly charts look kind of messy. Last months candle was bullish so this could just be a retracement of last month. We don't really know for sure. I'd say there are cleaner moving pairs out there.

zusch
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #12,023
  • Nov 15, 2012 12:21pm Nov 15, 2012 12:21pm
Quoting Amelia
I found an opportunity from AUDCAD. Do you think it going right?
Amelia you are definitely going right. I have entered the AUDCAD trade earlier today after I saw the daily engulfing candle I went to the monthly and saw that high-test pin bar so both higher timeframes pointed towards the reversal. Its always good to check the timeframe above the one you see the set up to see if it agrees with the lower TF. It is also better to keep it simple and not have to many indicators on your chart (dont worry ive been there) and just read price action alone. See the charts below thare are no indicators, just S&R levels. I'm up about 55 pips as I write!

Persistence overcomes resistance!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDCAD Weekly 151112.gif Size: 63 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDCADDaily 151112.gif Size: 71 KB
  • #12,024
  • Nov 15, 2012 3:04pm Nov 15, 2012 3:04pm
Quoting 4rexx
I have entered the AUDCAD trade earlier today...
I like to manage medium term trades i'm in on the hourly TF to ride the pair as long as possible moving my stops to lock in profit after levels of S&R are confirmed.

Persistence overcomes resistance!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDCADHourly 151112.gif Size: 126 KB
  • #12,025
  • Nov 17, 2012 7:00am Nov 17, 2012 7:00am
@skynet, never knew u were a philantropist....well jst to let u knw am interested in your freebie, 10k dollars will do to start my forex career. thanks in advance
i trust my system, only my broker i distrust
  • #12,026
  • Edited Nov 18, 2012 4:31am Nov 17, 2012 3:27pm | Edited Nov 18, 2012 4:31am

What Will Price Action Do Next?





Hopefully this post will compliment previous posts in this thread on price action and momentum found here post11618 and here post11621

I am still in the AUDCAD trade from last week my stop is just above that range that I hoped I would see a breakout, pullback and continuation from. I was looking to see if there were any signs I could glean from the chart of where price is likely to go next week. Obviously, there are two options, well three, as price can continue to range, but ultimately price has to break north or south.


A key aspect of technical analysis is the context, looking at present price action (PA) in relation to past PA to see if it is moving in the same way to recent chart history. Each chart paints a picture of colours (red & green) and patterns (triangles, ranges, etc.) and like a painting if you study and become familiar with it you will find each chart has its own style and nuances specific to that chart.


So an analysis of a chart’s previous PA is a good guide (not a guarantee) of future PA. As comparing prior PA and the newly unfolding PA you will soon see if price is acting in context to the overall chart and therefore a continuation of the present trend might be on the cards. However, if price is acting out of context of the more recent PA then a change in sentiment could well be occurring.


So if price was trending smoothly for a while with nice harmonic swings, and then you begin to see choppy PA, why is this? Is price near the top of a range, is price hitting strong levels of S&R, was there a news release or is a reversal imminent? If you were thinking of entering a trade and then you see PA become choppy perhaps you should wait on the side lines until PA becomes much clearer, confirmation of where PA is going will give us confidence to enter a trade or look at another chart.

Similarly, if price was moving aimlessly sideways, then begins to trend smoothly in line with the higher TF trend breaking S&R levels as well, then this change of PA in comparison the most recent context is a heads up that the bulls or bears have taken control.


By reading PA in this way you can see if the recent context of the chart changes and if you read it correctly, which you will with practice, it gives you more assurance in your own technical analysis skills and it will improve your overall trading self-confidence.


Below is the AUDCAD 4H chart which we can look at to see if price action analysis (no indicators) alone using the concept of context can help us deduce where PA may go next.


Persistence overcomes resistance!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDCAD Context.gif Size: 117 KB
  • #12,027
  • Nov 19, 2012 6:24am Nov 19, 2012 6:24am
It's a very good text friend.

I realised recently that Price Action is the best way of analysing the market.

I started studying Forex in May and since then I've seen many people using a lot of indicators, stretagies and they forget to analyse what's happening with
the price !

I was presented with this Hectot's strategy in May but at that time, I thought It was too conservative with few entries, when the truth is, it gives us
a lot of entries in many pairs and TF's.

So, I decided to quite studying other strategies, usying indicators...etc and started using just this strategy from one week so far, I have already made some profit !

Well, I'd like to ask you guys if you're making good money with this strategy and are there better pairs/time frame to trade?

Thanks a lot.

Best,
Diones

Quoting 4rexx

What Will Price Action Do Next?





Hopefully this post will compliment previous posts in this thread on price action and momentum found here post11618 and here post11621

I am still in the AUDCAD trade from last week my stop is just above that range that I hoped I would see a breakout, pullback...
  • #12,028
  • Dec 1, 2012 10:23am Dec 1, 2012 10:23am
Great post as always 4rexx!

I had this chart marked up as well and thought I'd post it for comparison.

pipnut
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audcad h4 11.29.12.gif Size: 50 KB
Even a blind squirrel finds a nut sometime.
  • #12,029
  • Dec 2, 2012 3:59pm Dec 2, 2012 3:59pm
Not a lot of great looking pairs out there right now. JPY looks really weak overall.

Best trending pairs in my eyes in order of preference:

1. USDJPY - Long
2. EURJPY - Long
3. GBPAUD - Short

Here is last months monthly candle reads: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...87#post6150187
Momentum didn't continue through on EURAUD and EURUSD which was very surprising. Those pairs look very messy on the monthly charts now. USDCAD had a nice run up after hitting the 50% Fib, but momentum on that pair died as well.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #12,030
  • Dec 3, 2012 5:26pm Dec 3, 2012 5:26pm
Quoting Skynet
If anybody needs any change, let me know, okay?

i am open to sponsoring three people. you dont beleive me? here is my bank account from the 23rd of october, 2012.

peace out,

--skynet

P.S. hahahahahahha.
Do you mean it?
  • #12,031
  • Dec 19, 2012 3:46am Dec 19, 2012 3:46am
I hope this thread isnīt dead. It is one of the few worth reading.
  • #12,032
  • Dec 19, 2012 2:30pm Dec 19, 2012 2:30pm
AUD/NZD CORRELATION: Gentlemen, the NZD has gotten decimated against the CHF for 6 straight sessions. But then USD and JPY dropping big 3 days straight against CHF. No news at all about NZD or CHF. Why might this be happening. And could someone tell me what the correlation between CHF and NZD might be. I ask this because they seem to be paying no attention to what the EUR/USD is doing at all. There is something of great value to be learned here.This price action is important! I just cant figure out what. And no, its not all profit taking,not on all of these pairs. Predictions? Correlation? Speculations? Anyone.
  • #12,033
  • Dec 19, 2012 2:39pm Dec 19, 2012 2:39pm
Quoting Skynet
If anybody needs any change, let me know, okay?

i am open to sponsoring three people. you dont beleive me? here is my bank account from the 23rd of october, 2012.

peace out,

--skynet

P.S. hahahahahahha.
Is the offer to sponser for trading or AA. Because one will lead you to the other if not careful. I myself have been trying to get someone to put together a trading room just for about 5-10 of us who want some critique and feedback on our systems and strategies. I myself am working with both a trending system and also with Harmonic Fibonacci Patterns which are mostly against the trend. It would be a blast to be a part of a room where we ARE required to post our best setup of the day and explain why. MAYBE HAVE 2 HOURS A DAY IN THE ROOM. Maybe have 2 moderators. One for the 8-10am est session and another for the 2-5am est session. To me all the other times are a total waste for daytrading. At least for GETTING into a position. If anyone is interested in revving one up, Im in.

Silat50
  • #12,034
  • Dec 21, 2012 1:17pm Dec 21, 2012 1:17pm
This thread formed the foundation of my trading experience, still on demo though after 9months, and moved to other trading style, i still give utmost thanks to the nightmoves, because the experience i gathered here so far is invaluable. Meanwhile, I will be going live in 3months time, by then i hope i will have finalised my trading/bussiness plan for this bussiness. I am giving demo so much time, because I am taking forex as my second source of income....I hope this thread doesnt die, cos I am going to be needing a lot of inspiration from experience traders like shomari, skynet,custos and nightmoves plus those i forgot to mention. cheers
i trust my system, only my broker i distrust
  • #12,035
  • Dec 26, 2012 4:46am Dec 26, 2012 4:46am
Please help, I do not know what I did wrong.

AUDNZD Daily. It appears to me like the breakout and the inverted hammer tested the broken support now acting as resistance. A breakout pull back continuation to me. So what is wrong with my analysis?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_01 Dec. 26 18.43.jpg Size: 193 KB
  • #12,036
  • Dec 26, 2012 5:37am Dec 26, 2012 5:37am
Quoting hytten
Please help, I do not know what I did wrong.

AUDNZD Daily. It appears to me like the breakout and the inverted hammer tested the broken support now acting as resistance. A breakout pull back continuation to me. So what is wrong with my analysis?

there is no enough points to confirm your trend ... you only got 2 points ... one wich is the S and the other which is the R ... price will retrace though ... based on your trend line
let the chart to be your chauffeur ... -Forexmnstr-
  • #12,037
  • Dec 26, 2012 8:49am Dec 26, 2012 8:49am
Quoting hytten
Please help, I do not know what I did wrong.

AUDNZD Daily. It appears to me like the breakout and the inverted hammer tested the broken support now acting as resistance. A breakout pull back continuation to me. So what is wrong with my analysis?
I am not sure what TF you are looking at when you took the trade. the Daily Chart is what is shown, but you should zoom to a smaller time frame and use that TF as your trigger chart. Once zoomed in then you can look for the reversal signals or patterns. But again it depends on what method you are using to trade.

--NM
  • #12,038
  • Dec 26, 2012 9:02am Dec 26, 2012 9:02am
Quoting NightMoves
I am not sure what TF you are looking at when you took the trade. the Daily Chart is what is shown, but you should zoom to a smaller time frame and use that TF as your trigger chart. Once zoomed in then you can look for the reversal signals or patterns. But again it depends on what method you are using to trade.

--NM
Thanks forexmnstr and NM.

NM,

Emm May I know if you were watching this, which lower timeframe reversal signals would you taking your trade from? 1H or 4H? Should I jump in if I see a pin bar on 1H at the previously broken support OR wait for the 4H candle to close? Sometimes the bounce is not as clear as 1 single candle or 2 candle reversal.. if it is moving sideways before it falls again how would I know? wait for the break of range and pull back?
  • #12,039
  • Dec 26, 2012 9:12am Dec 26, 2012 9:12am
Quoting hytten
Thanks forexmnstr and NM.

NM,

Emm May I know if you were watching this, which lower timeframe reversal signals would you taking your trade from? 1H or 4H? Should I jump in if I see a pin bar on 1H at the previously broken support OR wait for the 4H candle to close? Sometimes the bounce is not as clear as 1 single candle or 2 candle reversal.. if it is moving sideways before it falls again how would I know? wait for the break of range and pull back?
hytten,
I was not watching the pair, I guess the point I was trying to make was you were showing the daily chart, what time frame did you use when you entered the trade and what signal prompted you to enter the trade. All I saw was your daily chart. So I am not sure what you saw when you took it. That is really what I wanted to know. What signal told you to enter.

If you are trading the daily charts I normally use the 4 hour chart as a trigger chart then look for the reversal signals. Could you post a chart of why you entered?

--NM
  • #12,040
  • Dec 26, 2012 9:27am Dec 26, 2012 9:27am
Quoting NightMoves
hytten,
I was not watching the pair, I guess the point I was trying to make was you were showing the daily chart, what time frame did you use when you entered the trade and what signal prompted you to enter the trade. All I saw was your daily chart. So I am not sure what you saw when you took it. That is really what I wanted to know. What signal told you to enter.

If you are trading the daily charts I normally use the 4 hour chart as a trigger chart then look for the reversal signals. Could you post a chart of why you entered?

--NM
Hi NM,

I took it from daily chart itself. I attached a screen shot from Hector's course. I kinda see the entry as similar to breakout congestion continuation. Is it not the same?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_04 Dec. 26 23.24.jpg Size: 54 KB
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