Circular Trend-Waves

01.08.2020 UPDATE: Time is everything!


Hi Traders ,

First of all I want to say that this thread is nothing scientific , It will be just the results of my own studies with the help of some geometric understanding on this forum.

1- Trade What You See - Almost Naked Trading - http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=257876

2- Nearly Naked (Simple Trades) - http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=230625

3- Fibonacci Trading with Bobokus - http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=50767

4- James16 Chart Thread - http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=2331

5- Circular Trendlines - http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=297637 - ( I have been his silent follower for a long time )

6- Trading Major Lines - http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=281454

7- Andrews Pitchfork (Median Line) - http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=76597

I will be using all of the geometric stuff (MT4) in order to trade , but I will not tell every detail , I want the followers (in case they exist) to spend some effort too. The market is like a living beast and have a rhytm. the most shocking part is this "beast" has liquidic behavious. And the factor which shapes the trends and the price movement is the momentum which is also not toootally solid. We can examplify the situation like this :

The price is like the surface of the sea , and the momentum is the wind which creates waves on the surface of the sea. If the general direction of the wind is to the north , then the waves on the surface of the sea moves to the north too. But It shud be considered that there will also be small winds (local) on the way to the north which will interrupt the general direction of the wind.So we can say that the general momentum creates the general trend , the inner momentums create the inner waves.

Like Elliot discovered human psychology can be formulized , and it has an algorithm. But we always consider that the process in our brains is undefinable. We can be sure that we are wrong , the creator created in inner mathematical algorithm even in our psychological side.The biggest discoverey about the relation between psychology and the mathematical measurements is the golden number : 1,618 !!! Its the general ration between the waves in this market.

But there is something in the understanding of the market. It is not only the rice itself. this market is something two or three dimensional [ Human psychology (which also creates the momentum and the volume) and the price itself (the balance of supply and demand)] ... the most important thing among these dimensions is the human psychology which causes most of the things in this market. So wat we shud do is to decode the algorithm of the human psychology and the path passes through the golden number 1,618 !!!

I can imagine most of u saying that the FİBO tool does not work all the time , yes its a fact ! But the fibo tool on our MT4 platforms is something horizantal which considers market to include only the price , and it rejects the existence of other dimensions like time and momentum. Thats why I will be using circles instead of horizantal tools.This doesnt mean that I strictly reject the horizantal tools , but honestly its difficult to settle the circles at first sight. And you will be amazed when u see the sharp ratio between the waves...its mostly exact 1,618 if the pair is perfect ! ofcourse all of the pairs do not behave in a perfect way , thats why we shud accept the existnce of some deviation.

Great researches have discovered that we have a code of 1,618 in our brains which we are not aware most of the time. The things which we call as "perfect" at first sight have the 1,618 ratio. The interesting point is we do not measure them when we see , Its just a code in our braibns which automatically make us think that its perfect as long as the target object has that ratio. The credit cards , the TV screens ...arent they cute to most of us , why do we think so ? Do you think its just a coincidence? No its not , the designers of such "attractive" things know that we have that 1,618 code in our brains , and yes, credit cards are attractive to most of us !!!

Anyway , when lots of investors look at the charts at the same time , their psychology works with the "almost same" algorithm. The common number in these algorithms is the golden ratio and our brains (when we think about the sum of the brains looking at the charts) create waves with this ratio !!!

I will show only one example for today , and will contibnue later...the next topic will be about the deviations..

http://img819.imageshack.us/img819/9568/eurusd3.gif

http://img838.imageshack.us/img838/9176/eurusd2t.gif

http://img42.imageshack.us/img42/875/eurusd1.gif

(This first post will be edited through time)

I want to upload in indicator, which is quite useful (at least for me):

Looks interesting... Now how do I draw those on my mt4 platform?

jt

Sorry I will not tell every detail as i said in the previous post. These are the results of my studies which took too much time. It is really easy on MT4 , all u need to do is to check around a little.

Regards..

The Deviation of the Perfectness

As I told in the first post the market isnt "perfect" sometimes , and It doesnt fit the exact ratio of 1,618. EURUSD daily chart in the first post is close to perfectness , but not totally perfect. Just like the creatures in this universe the ratio is always sometthing close to the golden ratio.

But we are trading real money in this market and we want sharp targets in this "business". Starting from this oint it will be essential to ask help from the supports and resistences in the past . Be sure the brains of the investors look at the same chart will draw those circles without letting them know wat they are thinking , and instictually they will SELL or BUY at the critical circular zones. The trend always starts from a certain point [x,y] and that coordinate has a deadly imortance in circular approach. Remember , we pretend that the price is like water , and the waves are like the waves on the surface of the water when u drop a stone ... like this :

http://img834.imageshack.us/img834/6023/sugif.jpg

What I tell is the ratio between those circles are 1,618 when its perfect ! And the price moves exactly like that !!! The trend starts from a certain point (x,y) and the trends respect the waves .I ll show one EURUSD example to make it more clear. Be sure It will make it easier for u to make predictions in the future. Because what we are trying to do is to discover what the algorithm of our brains is ...

http://img705.imageshack.us/img705/7778/eurusdbig.gif

The pictures above are the way our brains see the charts (a part of my theory) , those circles do not give us targets , but at least help us to detect the reversals. For ex EURUSD pair targets the next circle in the picture (marked with green dot) , and when it tocuhes that circle we will know that the wave is circle,and a new bearish trend will start targeting the outar wall of the inner circle. In case that circle is broken then the next circle will be the target. In other words these circles can tell us the reversals or the beginnings of the trends...but doesnt give much info about the completion date of the trend. There are some tricks even for date prediction , but its the next step

XAUUSD ... Gold is one of the pairs which mostly respect the golden ratio , but it is also essential to accept the existence of sharp target desire in us , so we need to include the deviation in our calculations or strategies. As seen in the icture the price really respects the circular trend-waves , and the price is right above a very strong support now. The possible targets of the price are marked on the picture assuming that :

[ The duration of the previous swing = The duration of the upcoming swing ]

Its the topic on which i am studying at the moment , but even the durations of the swings seem to have the golden ration among themselves.But ı do not have enough clues to prove it for now

http://img836.imageshack.us/img836/8227/altn2.gif

EURUSD ... This is the first outlook for EURUSD Daily chart and i just wanted to mark the possible targets in the future. The intersection of the tools have a great potential to be reached. The pair has been consolidating right above the channel line for a while and it is just preparing the suitable time + price for the best bounce up so that it can visit the green energy point which is around 1,3430-3450s . But in case a retracement happens then the retracement is supposed to be stopped by the circular support at 1,2870-2890s . What we shud do is just to set our pending orders and wait for the price to react...

http://img259.imageshack.us/img259/7778/eurusdbig.gif

A [ Date + Price ] prediction : 2-6 January - 1,3415 - 1,3435

The three geometric tools intersect at the same point , so we can say that its an energy point and will attract the price against itself as if it is a magnet. So the price will most probably touch that level on the 2nd-6th of January 2013 ...

http://img12.imageshack.us/img12/8695/eurusd2gif.gif

UKOil ... The price is moving between two trendlines , but at the same time it is captured within a circular path. If the price moves in a regular way then it shud touch the bottom trendline.Anyway...its essential to SELL UKOil until it reaches the trendline , and it will really give lots of profit. Lets see wat will happen !!

http://img4.imageshack.us/img4/9595/ukoil.gif

GBPUSD ... As seen in the picture the price is again the slave of circular harmony and is about to break a circular support at the moment. This broken circular support will lead us to 300-400 pips profit. Well , you might be asking wat the advantage of using the circles is whereas we can do the same (maybe better) entrance by using horizantal tools. The answer is : the circles make us understand the basic path of the price and it makes us see that the price obeys the angles and the geometry . This "being familiar" to the market mechanics makes our uncertain psychology turn out to be a confident and comfortable and certain psychology. The better we understand the mechanics of the price (the way human psychology works in a way) the better we trade and the better we detect the targets. Ofcourse we need other tools to detect the target , but circles must still be involved to make ourselves feel that the market is familiar and not tootally wild !!

In this situation the bearish trend will be confirmed with the break of the green circular support and the fan support will be the next target of the price.We shud adjust out TP at 1,5660-1,5700 considering that the price might not reach the exact target. Then all we need to do is to wait for the result...

http://img201.imageshack.us/img201/6005/gbpusde.gif

enjoying your thread,interestingly you have 15660 as a low point,my longer term level using a calculation from pi is 15635 not so far apart.15741 being the level above also calculated the same way.my high level was 16389.

i strongly believe in circular motion of price,like you im still amiss with durations.

looking forward to reading more

merry xmas

Hi diceman555 ;

First of all I am a muslim we do not have christmas , but its really polite of you to wish a happy christmas for me , trhank you ! And I wish the same happy christmas for you too...

I have watched Kambooj for a long time , there are some parts I do not agree with him , but I feel really thankful to him that he gave me the idea that this market can be "measured" . And also the threads which i mentioned in the first post (about geometry) gave me hope about predicting [price + time]. When i was studying picthforks I met a term called "energy points" which act as magnets and attract the price , ıt was the intersection oint of two median lines. What ı am trying to do is to apply the same mentality to the circles , but I am still at the process of improving myself , I do not have certain and clear results for now...

But ı think momentum is the key data while calculating the swing duration. Or lets say the laziness or the excitedness of the price. Those adjectives are human-like adjectives , but "human" is the basic factor which shapes the market. Thats why it has the living creature symptoms . This laziness or excitedness of the price (momentum) rejects the validity of horizantal tools. For ex if the price falls from 100 to 0 , then if we are using horizantal tools we expect the price to reach 100 again. But if the price (human psychology) doesnt have enough momentum or excitedness there will come out another human-like speciality : the exhaustedness of the price. When this exhaustedness happens we do not reachh 100 and the price forms a double top or something like that and changes its direction back to 0 , maybe below 0 As a conclusion , I think the formula shud be based on (about duration) :

 

1. The avarage momentum of the last completed swing shud be calculated
2. In case the "on process" avarage momentum of the new swing exceeds the previous swing's avarage momentum , then we can say that we will have a new HIGH
3. In case the "on process" avarage momentum of the new swing is less than the previous swing's avarage momentum , then we can say that we wont be able to reach the previous HIGH

For now what I do is to draw both channels and circles on the screen and detect the intersections . But its also another strong theory that the market doesnt obey any rules , the chaos theory , ... I am confused...God bless us

The mentality behind circles is : If the changes in the momentum effects the tops and bottoms of the price , so a drawn circle helps us to find the rational changes in the momentum as time passes , and it helps us to see the potential reversals ... well I hope I expressed myself in a clear way. I take notes whenever I study , a kind of diary , and still everything is like clouds , nothing accurate yet...I hope oneday I ll reach wat I expect to reach !

Regards...

(Thanks for your kindness)

I just want to share a PDF file (Its really a nice PDF about risk menagement) taken from another thread here on forexfactory :



PDF File : http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...6&d=1356157997

The post : http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...08#post6317708

The name of the thread : One Minute Wonder Thread - http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=390673

EURUSD ... Here is another clue for the "almost perfect" beast , EURUSD. You can see how 1,618 and 2,618 works . And here is the question : Will the price continue being "almost perfect" and reach its 1,618 circular target? Or will it respect the inner weak circular resistence (drawn with dots) ? Well both of them will give good profits in case the price reaches them. The weak circle is around 3430-3450s and honestly I will realize my profit at those levels...

http://img211.imageshack.us/img211/7348/eurusdh.gif

USDCHF ... I have been watching this pair for a long time and trying to understand whether it is perfect or imperfect. First I drew green circles myself and saw that even this pair is ruled by a secret geometric king.The circular harmony in the pair was worth watching. Later I just wanted to see if the golden ratio 1,618 works in USDCHF market. I drew a red thicker circle and added 1,618 - 2,618 levels and its easy to see that the 1,618 excellently fits the green circle (which I drew). This can be accepted as a sign of perfectness. Anyway , Its nice to see wat the market is trying to do...

http://img685.imageshack.us/img685/5471/usdchfg.gif

EURUSD ... This post is not about the circles , but at least confirms the fact that price is trying to be perfect. As seen in the posts above we still have some distance to go up . But it is another fact that there is a bearish pressure nowadays on the pair , trying to push the price down. These are the symptoms of a balanced (perfect) nature , and its not something that destroys our theory. Moreover it proves that everything still obeys the basic rules of nature that everything tries to fit the golden ratio (tries to be perfect) which is the basic command from the great king.

Here is the weekly picture , weekly candles showing that the bulls take control over bears in long term :

http://img831.imageshack.us/img831/4084/eurusdkm.gif

We also shud notice that fact that the price has closed above a round number : 1,30 . That round number acts as the door of 1,40s when we look from the perspective of a round number trader. That round number is drawn with a thick yellow line in the picture.

Here is the daily chart , with double pinbar showing deeper prices and encouruging bears.This bearish trend will give us the opportunity to addan effective LONG order at the first daily candle formation. We will be looking for pinbars or enfulging bars. And yes , the 1,618 circle shud be reached somehow !

http://img109.imageshack.us/img109/6448/eurusd2j.gif

http://img708.imageshack.us/img708/3...epatternse.png

EURJPY ... The pair is close to perfect too , this speciality makes it measurable. As you can see in the picture the price is ruled by strict circles which act as supports and resistences. EURJPY has recently broken a strict and strong circular resistence which really dominated the price before , and changed the direction of the pair. Anyway , the circular area in which we are now is the danger zone and the price might move veeeery fast at once to the target . So explosive (bullish) trends shud be expected in the following weeks ...

Let's wait and see ....

http://img132.imageshack.us/img132/1530/eurjpym.gif

Run Fores(x)t Run !!! (for EURUSD)

Merry Christmas to everyone !!!

EURUSD ... Its just an update about the continous of the bullish trend. If you are using PA , and if you read the post about the enfulging candle pattern in EURUSD then you also must be waiting for a daily bullish signal (or a candle pattern) . And the price gave us a christmas gift today. If the price remains the same until the end of the day and if the completed pattern is a bullish enfulging pattern , then we can add LONG orders to our present LONG orders , and we can go on targeting 3430s . Moreover the candle pattern (daily) is just on a channel inner support which i drew before... So lets summarize :

 

1. The weekly enfulging pattern encourages us for bullish trends
2. Just because of the completed weekly pattern , we were looking for daily candle patterns (bullish)
3. It seems that today the daily bullish pattern will be completed
4. The formation I am following now is right on a channel inner support
5. The pair (which is trying its best to be perfect) still has some distance to go (upwards)
6. The negative correlated pair , USDCHF has completed its perfectness and now its experiencing its giant retracement which will push EURUSD upwards with a strong momentum
7. The positive correlated pair , EURJPY... we have strong bullish scenarios for that pair...

As seen , there are many reasons to BUY EURUSD...God bless us

http://img152.imageshack.us/img152/204/circle.gif


http://img593.imageshack.us/img593/9188/week.gif


http://img132.imageshack.us/img132/5055/dailye.gif

EURUSD ... Here we have a SELL signal with a high risk . The reason of the risk is the enfulging pattern in the weekly timeframe which tells us that the main trend is bullish. But at the same time it is a fact that we have a pinbar in the weekly timeframe showing lower levels. That pinbar is not validated at the moment , and it has the potential to change most of our plans.

When we look at the chart from the circular perspective , as you can see in the pics in the previous pics , the pair still has a distance to go up , and I have been saying the same thing almost in every post Thats why I feel weird while writing it And honestly I seriously wonder if the pair will be perfect or not ...It makes me excited...

In case the pair goes down then I will be expecting for a bullish entry chance in the FIBO zone.

http://img208.imageshack.us/img208/4580/eurusdac.gif



http://img29.imageshack.us/img29/9351/eurusd2.gif

EURJPY +253 +215 profit realized ...

NZDUSD +104 profit realized ...

Wuuu ... Its an amazing start for a new day