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  • #4,481
  • Dec 21, 2012 1:21pm Dec 21, 2012 1:21pm
Quoting forexhard
Actually, it's more like he is agreeing with me.

As for filtering with trend, a picture is worth a thousand words. This is from today, right now. And it's not the first pic like this that I've posted. If you want to filter with a MA200 (e.g.) that's up to you. But there are some of us that view it as simply another wasted indicator.
Don't use MA's
  • #4,482
  • Dec 21, 2012 1:25pm Dec 21, 2012 1:25pm
Quoting C345
Don't use MA's
Does that in any way change my point?
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #4,483
  • Dec 21, 2012 1:25pm Dec 21, 2012 1:25pm
Quoting dojirock
Merry Christmas Everyone!! See you next year!
To you and yours as well! Have a great holiday season!
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #4,484
  • Dec 21, 2012 1:26pm Dec 21, 2012 1:26pm
Quoting C345
Disagree - being aware of the trend is important and indeed kept me out of a losing E/U trade today. FXH will probably agree with you but I believe in being aware of the bigger picture. Each to their own I guess.
I apologize if I speak out of turn, but this system has got nothing to do with the trend.

Just trade it!
  • #4,485
  • Dec 21, 2012 1:34pm Dec 21, 2012 1:34pm
I think the whole reason for not caring about the trend is that you cannot predict when a reversal will occur all your doing is just following the BO no matter with the trend or counter it

I guess you could make the point that a zone is forming at a certain area and returning and forming zones again in that area it could be viewed as supply or demand level that could be highly likely for a reversal to occur there but that is another topic all together
  • #4,486
  • Edited 1:53pm Dec 21, 2012 1:38pm | Edited 1:53pm
Quoting forexhard
Does that in any way change my point?
Agree that is a good chart- but counter trend and that to me is high risk - sure it played out but safer ones to be had. Guess its all down to individual risk appetite.
  • #4,487
  • Dec 21, 2012 3:35pm Dec 21, 2012 3:35pm
Quoting C345
Agree that is a good chart- but counter trend and that to me is high risk - sure it played out but safer ones to be had. Guess its all down to individual risk appetite.
I just did a quick look at one of my charts using a 200 day MA. Win some lose some - overall - not enough of a difference to warrant keeping it my chart. So I looked at your last statement - risk appetite- what does that mean? I like to eat risk for breakfast with my toast? or I don't like any risk what so ever and have no appetite for it? Quite honestly, neither has a place in trading. I am assuming here - you experience pain when you lose hence the drive to trade painlessly. the only way one can trade painlessly is to change the rules in how one participates. Is it more important to make money on every trade or play every trade to perfection based on a plan.

The first approach is impossible, why? Because every trade is a mistake until it proves otherwise. The mistake is in so many ways - should have, could have, would have - on price, on load, on living my life - example - how many times have you read on this thread I missed my opportunity because "I was sleeping when the break out happened." That is a plan that has an inherent fatal flaw that needs to corrected. The flaw has nothing to do with SSBO, the flaw is in ones life style. Hence this waiting with baited breath for the EA. Nirvana - no more lost opportunities because I was sleeping, trust me someone using the ea will still have to deal with the emotional reality that every trade is a mistake.

Trade a plan to perfection. That can be done. Now that means a plan has to have losing as part of the plan - losing happens because markets are well the market. If I stay focused on my plan where is the pain? Only when I don't trade my plan to perfection - the dollars are a by product of trading a plan perfectly which is a bigger challenge because it is doable. Professional golfers practice their swing because that is the only thing on the course they have control over. when the ball hits a sprinkler head and bounces into the water hazard, that's golf. Kind of like the market - a perfect set-up but that damn news announcement or bank, or hurricane or what ever got in the way and ruined the game. A golfer may say a lot of things but guess what, the next swing is a perfect swing. In the market, the next set-up is a perfect set up we still don't know what the results are going to be until the game is over.

My penny's worth.
I make money anywhere in the world by taking orders
  • #4,488
  • Dec 21, 2012 5:17pm Dec 21, 2012 5:17pm
Quoting forexhard
If you know anything about me by now, it's that I believe in not stiffling creative thinking. Let the horse have his head and all that, so long as he's staying within his lane. And you are certainly doing that. So I can't see how you're doing anything "wrong" in your current approach.

But you do seem to still be searching for a more specific set of guidelines for picking lot sizes and attaching risk to your trades, and since you have asked, I will present you the challenge I gave someone else much earlier. And I promise that if you follow it...
Good advice chap. Really inciteful. I posted my spreadsheet expecting a nudge in the right direction and got spoilt! More of a shunt lol....and I'm loving it!

I'll take that advice as an early birthday present (lucky me, my birthday is on christmas eve....). Looking forward to the new year....just going to do a little background reading in the thread about trading over xmas.....from what I remember there wasn't much posting from xmas eve till the 12th january....

Ho ho ho etc etc
  • #4,489
  • Dec 21, 2012 5:50pm Dec 21, 2012 5:50pm
Also, just whilst I think of it, I thought I'd share my processes for arriving at my particular settings for each market. Its a sort of framework that I use which seems to help me zone in on solid settings for any market.

What works for me might not work for you but it helps me tune everything in. You might try it and it may be a total waste of time, but I've had success using the following steps. Note:- you will need to change things up if you don't trade like me i.e. you have multiple trades per CZ and not one per CZ like me (just saying in advance).

1) First thing I do is change the min bar close setting to 3 and max trades per cz to 1. This gives my basic platform. Its the staple of every market I trade with, but there are a few exceptions where 1 min bar close was more profitable.

2) Next thing I do is fiddle with the minimum bar settings. I tend to find most success in my settings on the M30 rather than M15...again though there are exceptions. You need patience. You need to be prepared to go up and down in numbers until you find the best pip count+win ratio for that parameter.

The biggest discovery I made was (and this is controversial because it actually goes against what FXH says of having an average of 3 CZ's a week) playing with this parameter until I tuned in the best pip count. Sometimes my output is as much as 12 CZ's a week.....massively high and way above the recommended levels....

So why do I use such high CZ averages.....well this is the interesting part. I get a lot of redundant CZ's.....for example (you can look at my previous charts to see this) a lot of my M30 markets utilize sub 10 bar length CZ's.....there's a lot of overlapping, but it works, plain and simple. It doesn't look pretty, but boy does it work.

3) Next up, the pip range. Well this has caught my attention big time the last month or so and has given me the biggest advancement in the quality of my settings. I love tight pip ranges. It means tighter stop losses.

Nearly always, my pip ranges are nice and tight, and I know for a fact that from the default setting of 28 (we always start from default of course, its the default), I will always reduce down until I hit the sweet spot. As a result, my CZ average goes down also and of course my pip count and win rate go up.

4) Finally, the QTP setting. This is the setting that takes the longest for me. You get a knack of knowing roughly where your range will be with this setting. If you've set everything up correctly you should end up with around 1:1 R:R after playing around with this setting.

All settings are hyper sensitive, and this paremeter is no exception. I can find 200-300 pips more in a market simply by adjusting the pip range after settling on the other 2.

THIS IS WHAT HAS WORKED FOR MY STYLE OF TRADING! IT MAY OR MAY NOT WORK FOR YOU!!!

I hope some find this useful.
  • #4,490
  • Dec 21, 2012 6:50pm Dec 21, 2012 6:50pm
Interesting post Awol. . . . . . and isn't compounding a beautiful thing ? :-)

Maybe give some thought to a much earlier post I made about withdrawing your original capital so that even if you blow the account, you have lost nothing.
  • #4,491
  • Dec 21, 2012 8:01pm Dec 21, 2012 8:01pm
Quoting AltosTrader
....Maybe give some thought to a much earlier post I made about withdrawing your original capital so that even if you blow the account, you have lost nothing.
But there isn't any scenario under which he could, given what AWOL just wrote. He would literally have to face down 20 consecutive stop outs in order to even dent his account at this point, much less face a margin call. Personally, I barely see that many stops in a year (per chart). I have a feeling AWOL isn't too far behind.
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #4,492
  • Dec 21, 2012 9:15pm Dec 21, 2012 9:15pm
Quoting forexhard
But there isn't any scenario under which he could, given what AWOL just wrote. He would literally have to face down 20 consecutive stop outs in order to even dent his account at this point, much less face a margin call. Personally, I barely see that many stops in a year (per chart). I have a feeling AWOL isn't too far behind.
Sure. I grant you that under SSBO correctly traded. I was thinking purely from a capital preservation point of view. Especially because every one who reads this thread does not give great thought to MM. and everyone will not trade SSBO correctly or to profit. Just my two bits to warn against complaceny. It will happen to someone, maybe not Awol, you or me but I just saw some clown claim a 300 pip loss from going long the GU. He thought he was right.

as an American friend of mine says,

just sayin'
  • #4,493
  • Dec 22, 2012 7:18am Dec 22, 2012 7:18am
Hi AWOL,
Your method is very insightful, thanks for sharing it. Do you tend to 're-tune' each Market every day/week/month, or do you tune it once and then just leave it until when/if it starts to fail?

many thanks.
  • #4,494
  • Dec 22, 2012 7:51am Dec 22, 2012 7:51am
Quoting AltosTrader
Sure. I grant you that under SSBO correctly traded. I was thinking purely from a capital preservation point of view. Especially because every one who reads this thread does not give great thought to MM. and everyone will not trade SSBO correctly or to profit. Just my two bits to warn against complaceny. It will happen to someone, maybe not Awol, you or me but I just saw some clown claim a 300 pip loss from going long the GU. He thought he was right.

as an American friend of mine says,

just sayin'
The guy lost 30 pips - he just confused with a 5 digit broker.
  • #4,495
  • Dec 22, 2012 8:10am Dec 22, 2012 8:10am
Quoting NoviceMan
Hi AWOL,
Your method is very insightful, thanks for sharing it. Do you tend to 're-tune' each Market every day/week/month, or do you tune it once and then just leave it until when/if it starts to fail?

many thanks.
FXH recommends settling on your settings and then leaving them at least 15 weeks to get a true backtest depending on your style. Look back through the thread and you'll find this information.

Does everyone else hate the new look factory as much as me.....buttons aren't where they should be...I want my old factory back!
  • #4,496
  • Dec 22, 2012 10:19am Dec 22, 2012 10:19am
Hi, I am member of this group for some months now and found of this to be excellent system. I have a suggestion.....

I you use this system coupled with Ichimoku Cloud only (Ignore Teken, Kijun and Chinku) then you will have even a better success rate.

Best Regards and Wishes
  • #4,497
  • Dec 22, 2012 11:18am Dec 22, 2012 11:18am
Quoting munirnadir
Hi, I am member of this group for some months now and found of this to be excellent system. I have a suggestion.....

I you use this system coupled with Ichimoku Cloud only (Ignore Teken, Kijun and Chinku) then you will have even a better success rate.

Best Regards and Wishes
Oh dear.....
  • #4,498
  • Dec 22, 2012 11:45am Dec 22, 2012 11:45am
I am a keen follower of the thread, but I neither have time to read it day by day, nor feel the urge to do so. So excuse me if I'm a bit late (and off-topic) to add my twopence. I'm just quite resigned these days when it comes to online conversations, guess why. I fully understand your temper, FxH. I'm glad this topic did not turn to ruin, thanks to you and all the active contributors.

Without going into booorin' personal details, I'm stuck in a sh|t'ole called my place of work, I basically live like a scavenger, and I've been counting my pennies for years. Two years ago I happened to come across a forex seminar, then I was fortunate enough to meet the right persons who showed me 'The Right Way In Forex'. No, not exactly, but let me add that this thread is the last piece in my puzzle. To repeat others before me, I'm learning how to fit trading SSBO's into my daily routine (or the other way round).

To cut it short, I think there's loads of people like me in that massive number of hits/day who "don't participate/contribute", just experiment with SSBO in the background. Let's not forget, empty barrel makes the most noise, as the saying goes.

Have a pipful new year everybody.

P.S.
Quote
Does everyone else hate the new look factory as much as me.....buttons aren't where they should be...I want my old factory back!
And it's more blue-ish than Windowz by default. Time to make a custom stylesheet or just switch to b&w...
  • #4,499
  • Dec 22, 2012 4:04pm Dec 22, 2012 4:04pm
Quoting forexhard
But there isn't any scenario under which he could, given what AWOL just wrote. He would literally have to face down 20 consecutive stop outs in order to even dent his account at this point, much less face a margin call. Personally, I barely see that many stops in a year (per chart). I have a feeling AWOL isn't too far behind.
Hi FXH, I don't want to belabour the point but there is one clear scenario for loosing your entire account. SSBO or any other. In my direct experience : Refco, FXLQ and PFG. I had funds in two of them. FXLQ I got back maybe a year or two later, can't rememember, but I got funds back because GFT somehow took over the FXLQ accounts and that taught me a lesson.

At PFG however it seems all FX traders will lose their entire accounts. I had funds at PFG but fortunate for me withdrew when the no hedging and 50:1 was coming in. So again I was in the clear - my good. I can't imagine I will ever trade with a US broker again. But, if anyone leaves their seed capital in an account they CAN lose it and that impacts their personal wealth. My way does not, unless the broker (refered to as "the criminal" ) in some forums goes belly up in the very short time the seed capital is exposed.

150 in GBP or 10,000 $ may or may not represent a lot of money to some but, I will guarantee, some will go in with full confidence and loose the lot, somewhere, sometime, and that is a risk I will not take beyond where un-necessary and would highly recommend no one else does either. Get the seed out ASAP. With the world teetering, the PIGS, the fiscal cliff, China's unclear policies - anything could happen. Get the seed out.

just sayin'.
  • #4,500
  • Dec 22, 2012 9:29pm Dec 22, 2012 9:29pm
Quoting AltosTrader
Hi FXH, I don't want to belabour the point but there is one clear scenario...
Yes, and you could also drop dead from a heart attack and your spouse will have a hell of a time getting your cash out -- etc, etc, ad infinitum.

My post clearly pointed out that I was referring to AWOL's trading methodology, not trying to cover every imaginable doomsday scenario.

Speaking of, you don't have any close relatives from central Mexico by any chance? Or are you just that bored with nothing else to do on a Saturday eve except split syntax with yours truly?
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
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