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  • #4,461
  • Dec 21, 2012 10:01am Dec 21, 2012 10:01am
Quoting Tpc23
A question to ponder .....

FxH: I realize that in the past you have indicated that the trend is not necessarily one of your decision criteria for a SSBO trade. I offer the following observations and request some input from other traders.

I researched the last 100 days of CZ's and trades using the most recent indicator. With my EU 15M settings, 25 CZ's were identified. Depending up slight variations in the settings, the first trade was a winner 63% - 68% of the time. Trade sets got to the 3rd level trade twice, and 4th level once. This...


Very interesting little study on the probabilities you have made. I can't say much on this as I am new to this thread but I think that you need more accurate figures to draw definitive conclusions about the precise probabilities, and you cannot draw conclusions from such a small sample size. Anyway it would be very useful to have these figures so that we can estimate BRM requirements and EV calculations.
  • #4,462
  • Dec 21, 2012 10:03am Dec 21, 2012 10:03am
Quoting rtn
eurjpy continues to impress....
By the looks of it you are always in a trade - I like it!

I'm also running eurjpy and currently have a run of 16 winners
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  • #4,463
  • Dec 21, 2012 10:27am Dec 21, 2012 10:27am
I would advise looking back through the thread about questions of trend. You should find that when using SSBO, the trend is not important. In fact my best answer to using trend analysis with SSBO is.....how do you determine the precise trend? Think how many answers you can give to that.

Multiple timeframe analysis....etc...etc.....now look at SSBO by itself...SSBO IS NOT subjective...it is objective. You have a CZ that you trade out of. You can see it. It isn't open to interpretation. Its just there.
  • #4,464
  • Dec 21, 2012 10:35am Dec 21, 2012 10:35am
Quoting Robst3r
Yes thank you very much
You're welcome !
Green pips to you
Trade Safe !
  • #4,465
  • Dec 21, 2012 10:44am Dec 21, 2012 10:44am
Quoting A.w.o.l
I would advise looking back through the thread about questions of trend. You should find that when using SSBO, the trend is not important. In fact my best answer to using trend analysis with SSBO is.....how do you determine the precise trend? Think how many answers you can give to that.

Multiple timeframe analysis....etc...etc.....now look at SSBO by itself...SSBO IS NOT subjective...it is objective. You have a CZ that you trade out of. You can see it. It isn't open to interpretation. Its just there.
.....and I think to many this way of trading and reading price action will be too easy to understand....
  • #4,466
  • Dec 21, 2012 11:21am Dec 21, 2012 11:21am
Quoting rtn
eurjpy continues to impress....
Very good !!
3973pips since when ?
Trade Safe !
  • #4,467
  • Dec 21, 2012 11:26am Dec 21, 2012 11:26am
Quoting A.w.o.l
....I'll wait for the FXH analysis and go from there...
If you know anything about me by now, it's that I believe in not stiffling creative thinking. Let the horse have his head and all that, so long as he's staying within his lane. And you are certainly doing that. So I can't see how you're doing anything "wrong" in your current approach.

But you do seem to still be searching for a more specific set of guidelines for picking lot sizes and attaching risk to your trades, and since you have asked, I will present you the challenge I gave someone else much earlier. And I promise that if you follow it to a "T" that by the time you are done you will be trading totally free of negative emotion.

To wit: Draw up another Excel chart, this one blocked out from 1-100. The only section you will pre-determine is the lot size; give all 100 lines the same lot size. Every other line or section you will fill in as you go, just like you did on the last one. I won't tell you what the lot size should be, but keep it on the small side. I'd recommend .30 or less. Then just follow the same general course of action you show in that last batch of trades -- only with a static lot size. Then after 100 completed trades, increase that older lot size by about 50% and do it all over again. So for example, the 1st 100 might be set for .20, and the 2nd 100 are set for .30.

The principle here is to have your risk give you no more excitement than your trade set-ups do. It took a long time for you to trust the CZ's enough to ignore trend as well as every other indicator you used to rely on, and to blindly follow price where ever it led. Those set-ups are becoming commonplace, and you don't give a second thought any longer to entering a trade when the conditions are right. It's becoming old hat, as they say; you are learning to operate by rote; you are teaching yourself trading muscle memory. The goal now is to create the exact same level of (predictable, boring, ho-hum) mental response to your exposed risk. You will of course bank pips along the way, but that is secondary to the primary goal of deadening your fear factor to as close to nil as possible.

If by the end of the 2nd round you are still experiencing the slightest anxiety over your trades, then stay where you are and go for another one, and so on. Do not move to another plateau until all anxiety is gone, and entering a trade (and waiting for it to close) is no more exciting than tieing your shoes or blowing your nose.
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #4,468
  • Dec 21, 2012 11:36am Dec 21, 2012 11:36am
got to love waking up to pips

Oil +30 on reset BO
NU +30 on 1st BO
GU -30, -30, +56
EU on reset BO: B -16, S -16, S still in the works TP is 51, moved SL to BE
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  • #4,469
  • Dec 21, 2012 11:43am Dec 21, 2012 11:43am
Quoting A.w.o.l
I would advise looking back through the thread about questions of trend. You should find that when using SSBO, the trend is not important. In fact my best answer to using trend analysis with SSBO is.....how do you determine the precise trend? Think how many answers you can give to that.

Multiple timeframe analysis....etc...etc.....now look at SSBO by itself...SSBO IS NOT subjective...it is objective. You have a CZ that you trade out of. You can see it. It isn't open to interpretation. Its just there.
Disagree - being aware of the trend is important and indeed kept me out of a losing E/U trade today. FXH will probably agree with you but I believe in being aware of the bigger picture. Each to their own I guess.
  • #4,470
  • Dec 21, 2012 11:46am Dec 21, 2012 11:46am
My stats for the week. Trading only SSBO.
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  • #4,471
  • Dec 21, 2012 11:55am Dec 21, 2012 11:55am
Hi Guys/Girls,

Not having much luck with my SSBO trades so far. I enter a GBPUSD buy order last night and go stopped out for a 300+ pips. Prior to this I entered a sell order for EURGBP and that isn't looking too good either as it currently negative -168 pips.

As I have mentioned previously I'm really looking forward to the auto EA as I seem to be missing out on too many winning trades and then picking the wrong CZ's when I eventually have time to look at the charts.

When the SSBO buy signal appeared for GBPUSD at approx 1.62871. I was reluctant to enter the trade as my gut instinct told me that the market had already made a few failed attempts to break the 63 barrier, I decided to go with CZ price action indicator rather than allowing for my judgement to be clouded with 63 barriers, fiscal cliff worries etc etc... and try to focus specifically on the price action.

Anyway here are my charts:

Have a good weekend all.
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  • #4,472
  • Dec 21, 2012 12:04pm Dec 21, 2012 12:04pm
I don't know if anyone is trading USDCAD as it seems to be performing well, although I haven't managed to get any trades on yet.

For anyone interested here are my settings using an Alpari UK micro account:

Good luck all.
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  • #4,473
  • Dec 21, 2012 12:09pm Dec 21, 2012 12:09pm
Quoting bot4us
Hi Guys/Girls,

Not having much luck with my SSBO trades so far. I enter a GBPUSD buy order last night and go stopped out for a 300+ pips. Prior to this I entered a sell order for EURGBP and that isn't looking too good either as it currently negative -168 pips....
There is no way in hell that you can suffer a 300p stop loss by following my system as taught in this thread. Not only that, but Cable didn't move 300p since "last night", so your post doesn't make even the slightest bit of sense to me. Even if you had taken a Buy yesterday at entirely the wrong moment, the most you would have lost is about 135p. So you are either a complete bullshitter, or you haven't learned a single thing about SSBO. Either way, please start again at Page One. Any more idiotic posts like this one and you're banned.

Meanwhile, I took a Sell on Cable "last night" and I'm up over 75p. Two positions closed and working on a third. If all 3 close out at full TP then this one trade set will net almost 130p. THAT'S what this thread actually teaches, not the stuff you are spewing all over my screen.
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To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #4,474
  • Dec 21, 2012 12:19pm Dec 21, 2012 12:19pm
Quoting forexhard
There is no way in hell that you can suffer a 300p stop loss by following my system as taught in this thread. Not only that, but Cable didn't move 300p since "last night", so your post doesn't make even the slightest bit of sense to me. Even if you had taken a Buy yesterday at entirely the wrong moment, the most you would have lost is about 135p. So you are either a complete bullshitter, or you haven't learned a single thing about SSBO. Either way, please start again at Page One. Any more idiotic posts like this one and you're banned.

Meanwhile,...
Hi forexhard,
After research I don't find anything about your ea: AuthorizedSSBOExpert_v1.0.
What about it ?
Sorry for my bad english
Trade Safe !
  • #4,475
  • Dec 21, 2012 12:24pm Dec 21, 2012 12:24pm
Quoting forexhard
There is no way in hell that you can suffer a 300p stop loss by following my system as taught in this thread. Not only that, but Cable didn't move 300p since "last night", so your post doesn't make even the slightest bit of sense to me. Even if you had taken a Buy yesterday at entirely the wrong moment, the most you would have lost is about 135p. So you are either a complete bullshitter, or you haven't learned a single thing about SSBO. Either way, please start again at Page One. Any more idiotic posts like this one and you're banned.

Meanwhile,...
Sorry forexhard, This is not my intentioned to upset anyone. I'm confused, as I entered the trade as per the AuthorizedSSBO EA, and as you can see from my posted GBPUSD M15 chart I entered a 1.62843 buy order (as per the last SSBO CZ) last night at approx 10PM with a quick take profit = 20.2 (200 pips 5 digit broker) and a stop loss = 34.2 (340 pips 5 digit broker) and as you can see from the chart I was stopped out at -34.2 (342 pips).

If there is something I have misunderstood about the EA workings then I apologize as I have genuinely read multiple pages on the thread from 1 thru to 20 pages + and will look further if necessary as I want this to work and don't want anyone to loose patience with me.


Thanks
  • #4,476
  • Dec 21, 2012 12:29pm Dec 21, 2012 12:29pm
Quoting bot4us
Sorry forexhard, This is not my intentioned to upset anyone. I'm confused, as I entered the trade as per the AuthorizedSSBO EA, and as you can see from my posted GBPUSD M15 chart I entered a 1.62843 buy order (as per the last SSBO CZ) last night at approx 10PM with a quick take profit = 20.2 (200 pips 5 digit broker) and a stop loss = 34.2 (340 pips 5 digit broker) and as you can see from the chart I was stopped out at -34.2 (342 pips).

If there is something I have misunderstood about the EA workings then I apologize as I have genuinely read multiple...
You don't belong in here. I suggest trying www.babypips.com (http://www.babypips.com)
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #4,477
  • Dec 21, 2012 12:37pm Dec 21, 2012 12:37pm
My Week
I didn’t change my settings for the week. I did take one pair I was following off the table. I started with a lot of pairs for two reasons. One to get practice evaluating CZ’s and two because I was afraid I wouldn’t get enough CZ’s in a week to trade.
My stats for the week
13 trades
10 closed winners
2 went to round 2
3 still open
Am being very robotic in trading my signals.
End result 610 pips for the week.
My real work is beginning – Trade Management
First – do I need to change anything to be profitable – based on back testing and ongoing forward test results? no! (subject to change based on my continuing forward test)
Do I need to make a lot of pips on a few trades to be profitable? No
Do I need to catch every pip in a run? This is a tricky question that has more psychological implications than trade management implications. This is work in progress.

How do I make my equity grow exponentially? I could have said linearly instead of exponentially. I am making a point by using the world exponential. Based on Risk Management, game theory, VAR Boundary studies, hold optimization and a whole lot of other fancy terms used by hedge funds; the optimum risk for exponential growth is about 20% in any one asset. How do I want to handle risk within this one asset called spot currency market? Again to grow the account exponentially I can risk no more than 20% at any one time. Stop right there big boy - 20% on a trade no way. That’s not what I am saying; total exposure is 20% of my account. An example is in order.

I have a pair, based on my settings, that averages .5 trades a week with 2 rounds max over the last 100 days. I plan for 3 trades per set to make at least the range. I am sounding like a casino. Now I can take the position to put 20% of my equity at risk on this one pair or I can divide my equity risk over a couple of pairs. The better route is over several pairs. So I am making the decision to have no more than 5 trades on at any one time, risking 4% per trade set which comes out to about .5% to 2% per trade. Hmmm sounds familiar doesn’t it? I know its fuzzy math, really all I am doing is sharing my thought process. The rest is simple math at the time of entry on a trade set. Having 8 hours to plan a trade has its merits.
The next step: run the machine mindlessly until April.
I make money anywhere in the world by taking orders
  • #4,478
  • Dec 21, 2012 12:39pm Dec 21, 2012 12:39pm
Quoting forexhard
You don't belong in here. I suggest trying www.babypips.com (http://www.babypips.com)
i hope you needlessly add a 0 to your winning pips also
  • #4,479
  • Dec 21, 2012 1:05pm Dec 21, 2012 1:05pm
Quoting C345
Disagree - being aware of the trend is important and indeed kept me out of a losing E/U trade today. FXH will probably agree with you but I believe in being aware of the bigger picture. Each to their own I guess.
Actually, it's more like he is agreeing with me.

As for filtering with trend, a picture is worth a thousand words. This is from today, right now. And it's not the first pic like this that I've posted. If you want to filter with a MA200 (e.g.) that's up to you. But there are some of us that view it as simply another wasted indicator.
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To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #4,480
  • Dec 21, 2012 1:18pm Dec 21, 2012 1:18pm
Merry Christmas Everyone!! See you next year!
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